We continue to march our way through the classifications and genders, trying to get a handle on how reliable preseason virtual meets are as a predictor for state meet placement. The premises of this series are laid out in the Introduction of the first article.
Our attention turns now to the preseason virtual meet and the eventual finish for 2A Girls.
2A Girls 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
We begin with 2A Girls from 2015. Here is what the preseason virtual meet team scoring showed for the top dozen teams:
Championship Meet - 86 Teams Team Scores
| # | Team | Score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heritage Christian Academy | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | - | - | - |
| 2 | Hotchkiss High School | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | - | - | - |
| 3 | Telluride High School | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | - | - | - |
| 4 | Lyons High School | 44 | 1 | 2 | 41 | - | - | - |
| 5 | Shining Mountain Waldorf High School | 75 | 18 | 23 | 34 | - | - | - |
| 6 | Peyton High School | 96 | 17 | 39 | 40 | - | - | - |
| 7 | Rocky Ford High School | 96 | 22 | 31 | 43 | - | - | - |
| 8 | Sargent High School | 103 | 24 | 29 | 50 | - | - | - |
| 9 | Dawson School | 103 | 10 | 42 | 51 | - | - | - |
| 10 | Yuma High School | 119 | 19 | 20 | 80 | - | - | - |
| 11 | Paonia High School | 135 | 15 | 52 | 68 | - | - | - |
| 12 | Highland High School | 135 | 32 | 49 | 54 | - | - | - |
And here is the actual order of finish of the 12 complete teams at state:
1. 16 Telluride ( 20:33.2 1:01:39.4 0:35.2) ========================================= 1 3 Soleil Gaylord SO 20:09.9 4 ( 8) Anna Fake SR 20:45.1 2 6 Maya Ordonez FR 20:44.4 5 ( 22) Lydia Hagen FR 22:04.2 3 7 Larkin Brodie JR 20:45.1 2. 19 Heritage Christian Academy ( 20:27.1 1:01:21.3 1:24.3) ========================================= 1 1 Rachel Rairdon SR 19:55.8 4 ( 17) Olivia Couch SR 21:24.2 2 2 Rebekah Rairdon SR 20:05.4 5 ( 31) Megan Wagner SO 22:48.7 3 16 Leeann Wagner SO 21:20.1 3. 32 Lyons ( 21:00.6 1:03:01.8 1:16.5) ========================================= 1 4 Sierra Tucker SR 20:30.0 4 ( 25) Grayson Thomas FR 22:19.9 2 9 CeAnn Udovich JR 20:45.3 5 ( 28) Sarah Roberts SO 22:33.4 3 19 Madeleine Seifert FR 21:46.5 4. 50 Hotchkiss ( 21:34.4 1:04:43.1 1:14.8) ========================================= 1 11 Mae Anderson SR 21:07.4 4 ( 39) Mariah Griffith FR 24:17.9 2 13 Kaiya Firor FR 21:13.5 3 26 Sophia Schelle SR 22:22.2 5. 55 Sargent High School ( 21:35.9 1:04:47.5 0:49.3) ========================================= 1 14 Makayla Garcia SR 21:15.2 4 ( 43) Angelina Riggs SR 24:51.4 2 18 Maria Montes SR 21:27.8 5 ( 48) Jaci Kenison JR 25:16.2 3 23 Faith Stults SR 22:04.5 6. 60 Resurrection Christian ( 21:49.9 1:05:29.6 2:25.1) ========================================= 1 5 Kyra Hanson JR 20:33.5 4 ( 37) Cailyn Konkey FR 23:25.7 2 20 Hannah Hart SR 21:57.5 5 ( 50) Karly Christensen JR 25:37.4 3 35 Averi Phillips FR 22:58.6 7. 71 Rocky Ford ( 22:08.0 1:06:23.9 1:21.8) ========================================= 1 15 Taylor Berg SR 21:19.4 4 ( 30) Jacklynn Snyder SO 22:47.3 2 27 Emily Gauna SO 22:23.3 5 ( 33) Jaquelin Alvey FR 22:50.2 3 29 Emily Aragon JR 22:41.2 8. 78 Shining Mountain Waldorf ( 22:41.3 1:08:03.7 4:03.8) ========================================= 1 10 Emma Schaefer SO 21:00.3 4 ( 53) Kelly Ireland-Ashley FR 32:44.7 2 21 Abby Leuchten FR 21:59.3 3 47 Ella Baca JR 25:04.1 9. 95 Custer County ( 23:20.8 1:10:02.3 3:47.6) ========================================= 1 12 Kayla Carter FR 21:09.9 3 45 Kayli Short SR 24:57.5 2 38 Katlyn Freeburg SR 23:54.9 10. 102 Peyton ( 22:56.8 1:08:50.2 0:14.0) ========================================= 1 32 Kaylee Kearse SO 22:50.1 4 ( 44) Mattie Hlatki FR 24:52.4 2 34 Shian Hanks SO 22:56.0 5 ( 46) Kylie Millard FR 25:03.6 3 36 Victoria Logar SO 23:04.1 11. 117 Wiggins ( 26:01.3 1:18:03.7 8:38.8) ========================================= 1 24 Maggie Allen SO 22:19.0 4 ( 52) Kamryn Sirios JR 30:59.2 2 42 Marisol Mendez SO 24:46.9 3 51 Valerie Sandoval JR 30:57.8 12. 130 Kiowa ( 24:58.4 1:14:55.0 0:53.6) ========================================= 1 40 Savannah Wassil FR 24:37.8 3 49 Kaitlyn Sinclair FR 25:31.4 2 41 Kristin McKnight SO 24:45.8
Preliminary Analysis
The preseason virtual meet did correctly identify the top four teams, though not in their final order of finish. To be fair, there is a lot more volatility in team placement when you score only three instead of five.
In all, the preseason projection correctly picked out eight of the eventual top 12 (and only 12) teams at state. Other than Resurrection Christian, all of the top eight teams at state were selected among the top eight teams in the virtual meet.
Seen that way, the virtual meet was a very solid predictor of what teams would be power brokers at state, even if the order of finish was a little muddled. And, in a different region, perhaps Dawson, Yuma, and Highland might have advanced to state? As it was, 2A Region 1 was the classification's dominant region, but only advanced four of its teams to state in an eventual field of 12. In this sense, the preseason virtual meet was bound to create a mismatch with the top 12 teams at state.