How Good of a Predictor Are Virtual Meets? 4A Girls


Helen Gover was half of a freshman tandem at Centaurus last fall that gave the Warriors a boost well beyond what the preseason virtual meet projected. Photo by Alan Versaw.

Now just past the midway point, we take another look at how well last year's preseason virtual meets predicted the actual order of finish at the state meet. This time, it's the 4A Girls turn under the microscope.


4A Girls 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish

The preseason top 12, according to the virtual meet of returning runners, looked like this:

#TeamScore1234567
1Air Academy High School16416165784--
2Battle Mountain High School1681019335155--
3Niwot High School171718435053--
4Wheat Ridge High School2112829395461--
5Classical Academy, The27431323863110--
6Evergreen High School2782341497491--
7Cheyenne Mountain High School29092446105106--
8Palmer Ridge High School3101436768995--
9Silver Creek High School35211717883109--
10Steamboat Springs High School35915356870171--
11Mountain View High School37452190118140--
12Thompson Valley High School378123098104134--


And, here is how they actually finished, through 12 teams, at state:

TEAM SCORES
PLACETEAMPOINTSSCORERSTIMES
1Air Academy High School601+5+10+14+30 (48+63)2:56 1-5 Split | 19:23 Avg
2Battle Mountain High School778+12+17+18+22 (67+80)0:48 1-5 Split | 19:54 Avg
3Thompson Valley High School16213+21+33+40+55 (93+139)1:16 1-5 Split | 20:29 Avg
4Palmer Ridge High School1769+29+34+36+68 (96+124)1:50 1-5 Split | 20:33 Avg
5Centaurus High School18623+24+39+47+53 (94+107)0:47 1-5 Split | 20:40 Avg
6Wheat Ridge High School23627+28+57+60+64 (72+113)0:53 1-5 Split | 20:55 Avg
7Classical Academy, The2394+46+52+61+76 (114+150)2:25 1-5 Split | 20:46 Avg
8Mountain View High School2676+42+45+85+89 (97+136)2:27 1-5 Split | 20:54 Avg
9Niwot High School28119+32+62+81+87 (100+121)1:35 1-5 Split | 21:02 Avg
10Evergreen High School28711+16+77+82+101 (106+142)2:15 1-5 Split | 20:57 Avg
11Cheyenne Mountain High School3047+20+54+108+115 (119+162)2:55 1-5 Split | 21:01 Avg
12Elizabeth High School31635+49+73+75+84 (127+133)0:59 1-5 Split | 21:15 Avg

Preliminary Analysis


Amazingly, even without knowing about the freshman class Air Academy was bringing in, the 4A Girls preseason virtual meet had the top two teams pegged correctly. Thompson Valley and Centaurus had a nice upticks over their projections (both with nice freshman class assists) and Niwot a bit of a tumble, but most teams fell in about where the preseason virtual meet indicated they would. Elizabeth showed up in the top 12 with a state meet team that was six deep in freshmen.

The virtual meet went 10 for 12 in picking out the eventual top 12. Not at all a bad showing.

So, on balance, this is the most prescient of the three girls preseason virtual meets we've looked at to date. At this point, things are looking pretty good for virtual meets, but we have three more yet to review.