How Good of a Predictor Are Virtual Meets? 5A Boys


Even without the services of Ben Dingman late in the season, Rampart managed to hang onto their preseason projected #7 finish last fall. Photo by Alan Versaw.

This will be the final classification and gender article looking at the question of how well last year's preseason virtual meets projected the order of finish at state. Following this article, there will be one summary article looking more generally at the question of how reliable this tool is.

5A Boys 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish

Here is what we were seeing for a virtual meet before last season started:
#TeamScore1234567
1Mountain Vista High School6436102223--
2Fort Collins High School10978123844--
3Arapahoe High School1931520214790--
4Monarch High School199227505367--
5Rocky Mountain High School2451194149135--
6Rock Canyon High School2833145607176--
7Rampart High School32311347892108--
8Fairview High School36613306499160--
9Fossil Ridge High School37092556133147--
10Boulder High School374172451104178--
11Chaparral High School387141672126159--
12Cherry Creek High School417435254120148--


And this is how the top 12 had settled out by the state meet:


TEAM SCORES
PLACETEAMPOINTSSCORERSTIMES
1Mountain Vista High School505+6+8+11+20 (24+101)0:42 1-5 Split | 16:31 Avg
2Fort Collins High School11010+13+21+22+44 (64+75)0:46 1-5 Split | 16:56 Avg
3Arapahoe High School1473+9+39+42+54 (93+108)1:21 1-5 Split | 16:57 Avg
4Boulder High School15414+26+27+28+59 (106+142)0:45 1-5 Split | 17:05 Avg
5Arvada West High School17316+30+38+43+46 (116+134)0:31 1-5 Split | 17:12 Avg
6Monarch High School2241+29+52+63+79 (98+149)1:41 1-5 Split | 17:11 Avg
7Rampart High School26919+33+68+72+77 (82+119)0:45 1-5 Split | 17:24 Avg
8Chaparral High School27015+35+45+76+99 (115+130)1:15 1-5 Split | 17:25 Avg
9Broomfield High School2792+40+55+85+97 (137+165)1:56 1-5 Split | 17:20 Avg
10Legend High School28218+41+53+57+113 (160+161)1:18 1-5 Split | 17:28 Avg
11Cherry Creek High School2917+49+65+83+87 (111+114)1:33 1-5 Split | 17:25 Avg
12Fossil Ridge High School30512+17+86+90+100 (109+127)1:22 1-5 Split | 17:29 Avg


Initial Assessment

Other than sharp rises by Arvada West, Rock Canyon, and Boulder and a bit of a dip by Rocky Mountain and Fairview, the preseason state meet did a solid job of picking the top three teams in correct order and getting nine of the eventual top 12 teams projected into the top 12. This isn't the best prognostication we've seen but it is solid nonetheless.

Look tomorrow (Wednesday) for a more detailed assessment of how preseason virtual meets performed in getting us a reasonably clear picture of how state would end up.