Cheyenne Mountain beat Thompson Valley by a single point at the Poudre School District Pre-State Meet to open the season. It just might be that close once again when we close the season on the same course. And it just might be the same two teams.
Both teams have progressed. Both teams have had meets that didn't go quite According to Hoyle (sorry, that expression probably just dated me beyond any recognition for 90% of the audience here). Both teams have stayed reasonably healthy. Both teams are taking aim at the big prize.
Before anyone gift-wraps the team trophy and sends it off to one of these two schools, however, there are at least three other schools that figure to have some say in the matter. Those three schools would be Alamosa, Greeley Central, and Mullen. Mullen has come up big twice--at Liberty Bell and then again at the Centennial League meet. Seems reasonable to suppose there might be more lightning in that cloud. Greeley Central was drubbed soundly by Thompson Valley earlier in the season, but has been on a significant upward trend since then. Central finished second at the LoboCat Invite, including nipping 5A contender Highlands Ranch. Alamosa has looked stronger on an almost weekly basis since Lindsey Sowards returned to their lineup after missing a few early meets. Anyone paying any attention at Centerra knows that this is an excellent team.
If there is a team that qualifies as a bona fide dark horse in this race, Evergreen is first in line for that honor. A cursory glance at their team times over the season seems to discount this theory until you remember they've run pretty much all of their races on more difficult courses. If there's a team that can come down to Fort Collins and surprise, that team would be Evergreen. Should that happen, I hope I didn't just spoil the surprise.
Summit represents an intriguing possibility for much the same reasons.
The best 1-2-3 in the state is just a few miles down the highway from Thompson Valley, but Greeley West needs the rest of the lineup to generate more of the same kind of magic.
Individually, the name of Laura Tremblay comes to mind as a favorite, but Tremblay is not the kind to hammer early and put the race out of reach before the field has time to figure out what just happened. 
All previous indicators suggest she will draw a crowd with her and push the pace a little to see who will drop and who can handle the heat. That crowd should include Dani Grossman of Cheyenne Mountain who recently tore apart the 4A field at the Colorado Springs Metro League Championships. Pencil Alicia Nelson of Moffat County onto that list. Nelson edged Tremblay at the Pre-State meet in August. Ashlee Smalley and Erica Hinchcliffe of Greeley West figure to have some say in the final outcome as well. Sierra's Samantha Thompson returns for her final state meet and should be among the leaders when the dust settles. And, of course, you have Rikka LaBere of Fossil Ridge. Running on your home course counts for something, but LaBere, at left, has made plenty of her own breaks this season.
If you favor dark horses, Nikki DeSouchet has been running very well for Alamosa of late. A big finish for her would certainly help to propel the hopes of the Mean Moose. Bryn Haebe of Evergreen hasn't posted the most earth-shattering times in the 4A classification, but that could also have a great deal to do with the kind of courses she's run. Like her Evergreen teammates, she stands to get a significant boost from running a flattish, lower-elevation course at the state meet.
The toughest region to get out of? Hands down, region 2. Throw Thompson Valley, Niwot, Roosevelt, Greeley Central, Greeley West, Fossil Ridge, Berthoud, and Broomfield into the same region and what do you get? You get at least one of these teams left out of the state picture. The pressure is on at this regional meet.
While the various boys races are getting the attention for being tightly-contested, high drama events, 4A girls gives up nothing to the boys' contests. Both the individual and team races promise some serious intrigue.