What Difference Does a Year Make? 2015 NXR-SW versus 2016 NXR-SW

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Isaac Green and Tanner Norman were Colorado's top two finishers in 2016 at NXR-SW, but both were well off their times from 2015. It turns out that was the norm. Photo by Alan Versaw.


A lot of people have asked me about this year's Nike Cross Southwest versus last year. "Was it really that much slower this year?"

Well, it depends on what you mean by "that much," but there was definitely a difference, and this year was clearly slower than last year. I've documented that claim with some data below. I took the top 200 returning runners (boys) from last year and compared their times last year straight across to their times this year. And, remember, this is without allowing for any year-to-year progression for these athletes. 

Below the listing of individuals, you'll find a summary of boys times (from all states) in 2015 versus boys times in 2016. Following that, you'll find the same summary comparison for girls. I think you'll see what I mean when I say this year definitely ran slower than last year.

Why would that be? The most obvious place to look is the weather report. The funny thing is, though, except for the wind, weather conditions were very similar for the two days in question. Slightly warmer in 2016 than 2015. 

The course was muddy in a few places this year, but not muddy as a general characteristic. Most places were firm. There was, however, plenty of wind and airborne dust in 2016 that wasn't there in 2015. I suspect therein lies much of the explanation we are looking for, but I don't know how to break that down but what contributed and how much.

In any case, the time data has a tale to tell:


Athlete 2015 NXR-SW Time 2016 NXR-SW Time Difference
Isaac Green 14:55.00 15:17.00 ( 22.00 )
Tanner Norman 15:15.00 15:23.00 ( 8.00 )
Parker Mackay 15:18.00 --
Cameron Dimas 15:26.00 17:07.00 ( 1:41.00 )
Max Martinez 15:30.00 15:46.00 ( 16.00 )
Joshua Romine 15:39.00 15:39.00 00.00
Alexis Aguirre 15:41.00 16:45.00 ( 1:04.00 )
Jeremy Meadows 15:45.00 16:07.00 ( 22.00 )
Shayan Zarrin 15:47.00 --
Isaiah DeLaCerda 15:47.00 15:51.00 ( 4.00 )
Andrew Lester 15:48.00 16:22.00 ( 34.00 )
Andrew Rudnicki 15:49.00 16:28.00 ( 39.00 )
Dylan Ko 15:55.00 16:02.00 ( 7.00 )
Connor McCabe 15:55.00 16:01.00 ( 6.00 )
Chris Theodore 15:56.00 15:52.00 4.00
Harrison Scudamore 15:56.00 16:03.00 ( 7.00 )
Jerald Taylor 16:00.00 15:51.00 9.00
Gage Hornung 16:00.00 16:40.00 ( 40.00 )
Max Sevcik 16:02.00 16:07.00 ( 5.00 )
Ethan Powell 16:02.00 15:54.00 8.00
Carter Dillon 16:03.00 16:00.00 3.00
Mason Brown 16:05.00 16:08.00 ( 3.00 )
Cody Danley 16:06.00 16:09.00 ( 3.00 )
Cole Munoz 16:07.00 16:17.00 ( 10.00 )
Brock Dykema 16:10.00 16:46.00 ( 36.00 )
Justin Andrade 16:14.00 16:04.00 10.00
Landon Rast 16:15.00 16:53.00 ( 38.00 )
Brandon Swenson 16:19.00 16:30.00 ( 11.00 )
Chris Cathcart 16:19.00 16:33.00 ( 14.00 )
Colin Berndt 16:20.00 16:29.00 ( 9.00 )
Sam Primozich 16:20.00 16:37.00 ( 17.00 )
James Logan 16:20.00 16:46.00 ( 26.00 )
Cody Jones 16:22.00 16:39.00 ( 17.00 )
Bryce Leschak 16:22.00 17:04.00 ( 42.00 )
Harry Steinberg 16:22.00 16:36.00 ( 14.00 )
Sean Riedel 16:23.00 16:47.00 ( 24.00 )
Kyle Kennedy 16:24.00 17:56.00 ( 1:32.00 )
Luke Dickinson 16:25.00 17:02.00 ( 37.00 )
James Espinoza 16:26.00 --
Luke Zacharias 16:26.00 16:19.00 7.00
Thomas Chaston 16:26.00 16:43.00 ( 17.00 )
Ben Brown 16:27.00 --
Matthew Arbegast 16:28.00 17:10.00 ( 42.00 )
Ryan Moen 16:29.00 16:31.00 ( 2.00 )
Weston Donati-Leach 16:30.00 16:24.00 6.00
Andrew Wethington 16:30.00 17:26.00 ( 56.00 )
Weston Hart 16:33.00 17:14.00 ( 41.00 )
Benton Meldrum 16:34.00 16:33.00 1.00
Zach Litoff 16:34.00 16:22.00 12.00
Isaac Russo 16:35.00 16:52.00 ( 17.00 )
Patrick Scoggins 16:36.00 16:47.00 ( 11.00 )
Bailey Timmons 16:37.00 16:30.00 7.00
Scott Johnson 16:39.00 17:03.00 ( 24.00 )
George Rykovich 16:39.00 16:43.00 ( 4.00 )
Joshua Krafsur 16:40.00 17:39.00 ( 59.00 )
Cal Banta 16:41.00 16:23.00 18.00
Andres Perez 16:42.00 17:15.00 ( 33.00 )
Logan Simington 16:44.00 16:40.00 4.00
Greg Hibl 16:44.00 17:27.00 ( 43.00 )
Nathan Gipprich 16:45.00 --
Canaan Lamberth 16:46.00 16:19.00 27.00
Logan Broedner 16:47.00 16:39.00 8.00
Matt Pearson 16:48.00 17:25.00 ( 37.00 )
Franklin Reilly 16:49.00 16:38.00 11.00
Seth Minor 16:49.00 17:13.00 ( 24.00 )
Jack Shore 16:49.00 16:39.00 10.00
Adam Marcus 16:49.00 16:58.00 ( 9.00 )
Will Wixson 16:51.00 16:51.00 00.00
Cole Gerome 16:51.00 17:04.00 ( 13.00 )
Brandon Hippe 16:52.00 16:55.00 ( 3.00 )
Stephen Agenbroad 16:52.00 17:33.00 ( 41.00 )
Blake Davis 16:52.00 18:12.00 ( 1:20.00 )
Ryan Matson 16:53.00 16:25.00 28.00
Josh Schoep 16:53.00 16:41.00 12.00
Sadio Fenner 16:53.00 16:41.00 12.00
Miguel Baltazar 16:54.00 17:06.00 ( 12.00 )
Jack Herrmann 16:54.00 --
Garhett Shaw 16:55.00 18:12.00 ( 1:17.00 )
Colton Stice 16:55.00 16:52.00 3.00
Alex Strohecker 16:55.00 --
Tyler Davis 16:55.00 17:45.00 ( 50.00 )
Garrett Beckstead 16:55.00 --
Nathan Gustafson 16:57.00 17:15.00 ( 18.00 )
Ethan Rouse 16:57.00 16:54.00 3.00
Christopher Lovejoy 16:57.00 16:30.00 27.00
Connor Kaufman 16:58.00 16:44.00 14.00
Cameron Beal 16:58.00 17:07.00 ( 9.00 )
Tyler Greven 17:01.00 --
Jared Leblow 17:02.00 16:53.00 9.00
Josh Welo 17:02.00 17:10.00 ( 8.00 )
Tyler Ervin 17:03.00 --
Luke Thurman 17:03.00 --
Sam Hitchens 17:03.00 17:13.00 ( 10.00 )
Aidan Clouse 17:04.00 16:56.00 8.00
Andrew Bluemel 17:05.00 17:26.00 ( 21.00 )
Austin Puckett 17:05.00 18:11.00 ( 1:06.00 )
Joseph Dicke 17:06.00 16:51.00 15.00
Evan Bratvold 17:06.00 17:38.00 ( 32.00 )
Dylan Zurfluh 17:07.00 --
Caelan Denley 17:07.00 17:00.00 7.00
Justin Lund 17:07.00 16:34.00 33.00
Jonah Munoz 17:08.00 --
Casey McDaniel 17:08.00 17:22.00 ( 14.00 )
Noah Jenson 17:08.00 17:34.00 ( 26.00 )
Jimmy Scavuzzo 17:09.00 16:53.00 16.00
James Moran 17:09.00 17:01.00 8.00
Nathaniel Badger 17:09.00 16:56.00 13.00
Brian Shockley 17:09.00 17:23.00 ( 14.00 )
Tad Trimarco 17:11.00 16:48.00 23.00
Ryan Meisner 17:11.00 17:47.00 ( 36.00 )
Gage Voss 17:12.00 --
Thomas Wall 17:12.00 17:21.00 ( 9.00 )
Kyle Franklin 17:13.00 17:32.00 ( 19.00 )
Elijah DeLaCerda 17:14.00 17:28.00 ( 14.00 )
John O'Malley 17:14.00 16:38.00 36.00
Jacob Baucom 17:14.00 17:53.00 ( 39.00 )
Marshall Haymond 17:15.00 --
Kyle Clancy 17:15.00 17:22.00 ( 7.00 )
Tony Passarelli 17:16.00 17:43.00 ( 27.00 )
Jack Rubalcave 17:16.00 --
Dalton Haraway 17:17.00 17:42.00 ( 25.00 )
Zachary Bright 17:18.00 17:19.00 ( 1.00 )
Patrick Johnson 17:19.00 17:44.00 ( 25.00 )
Sam Martin 17:19.00 17:11.00 8.00
Zach Hupfer 17:19.00 17:14.00 5.00
Landon Milbrath 17:21.00 17:35.00 ( 14.00 )
Drew Vidano 17:21.00 17:19.00 2.00
Richard Sais 17:22.00 17:44.00 ( 22.00 )
Cooper Brown 17:22.00 16:25.00 57.00
Shane Kaiser 17:22.00 17:41.00 ( 19.00 )
Gabriel Cervantes 17:22.00 17:18.00 4.00
David McGill 17:23.00 18:44.00 ( 1:21.00 )
Jayden Martinez 17:23.00 17:16.00 7.00
Augustus Ballantine 17:23.00 17:09.00 14.00
Ethan Steiner 17:24.00 16:45.00 39.00
Douglas McMurrain 17:25.00 17:45.00 ( 20.00 )
Bruce Barnstable 17:25.00 --
Alex Hooten 17:25.00 18:15.00 ( 50.00 )
Justen Olson 17:25.00 16:47.00 38.00
Thomas Meurer 17:25.00 --
Connor Dillon 17:27.00 18:55.00 ( 1:28.00 )
Simon Kearns 17:28.00 18:25.00 ( 57.00 )
Tyler Watkins 17:28.00 17:38.00 ( 10.00 )
Braden Mattson 17:29.00 17:04.00 25.00
Grayson Arstingstall 17:29.00 19:16.00 ( 1:47.00 )
Doug Ringer 17:29.00 --
Ben Geisler 17:29.00 18:19.00 ( 50.00 )
Sheldon Hafner 17:29.00 --
Austin Vancil 17:31.00 15:59.00 1:32.00
Aj Bishop 17:31.00 17:00.00 31.00
Calvin Haensel 17:32.00 17:22.00 10.00
Brady Blinzinger 17:34.00 17:29.00 5.00
Thomas Biasi 17:34.00 17:55.00 ( 21.00 )
Matt Solomon 17:34.00 --
Ace Downs 17:34.00 --
Jarrod Holt 17:34.00 17:37.00 ( 3.00 )
Bryce Vrabel 17:34.00 17:24.00 10.00
Manny Lujan 17:35.00 18:02.00 ( 27.00 )
Brandon Cardenas 17:35.00 18:26.00 ( 51.00 )
Aidan Fitzgerald 17:36.00 17:13.00 23.00
Kendall Ruggles-Delgado 17:36.00 17:07.00 29.00
David Cardenas 17:36.00 17:12.00 24.00
Declan Stone-Murphy 17:36.00 17:47.00 ( 11.00 )
John Carberry 17:37.00 17:40.00 ( 3.00 )
Hunter Elliott 17:39.00 17:18.00 21.00
Chris Lyders 17:39.00 17:09.00 30.00
Max Grimaldi 17:40.00 18:21.00 ( 41.00 )
Riley Abrashoff 17:40.00 17:49.00 ( 9.00 )
Tyler Waters 17:41.00 --
Tanner Price 17:42.00 --
Luke Wilson 17:42.00 17:28.00 14.00
Axel Nay 17:43.00 18:31.00 ( 48.00 )
Alex Giglio 17:43.00 18:10.00 ( 27.00 )
Garick Howard 17:46.00 17:14.00 32.00
Uriah Little Owl 17:47.00 17:54.00 ( 7.00 )
Jensen Baade 17:47.00 17:49.00 ( 2.00 )
David Moore 17:47.00 --
Caleb Berlinger 17:48.00 17:24.00 24.00
Josh Hawkins 17:49.00 17:54.00 ( 5.00 )
George Arciniega 17:50.00 18:45.00 ( 55.00 )
Evan Miller 17:50.00 18:53.00 ( 1:03.00 )
Walker Rudolph 17:51.00 17:22.00 29.00
Ian Olson 17:52.00 17:30.00 22.00
Orion Pipersky 17:52.00 17:14.00 38.00
Caleb Smith 17:53.00 17:31.00 22.00
Josh Thompson 17:53.00 16:49.00 1:04.00
Hayden Ell 17:53.00 18:38.00 ( 45.00 )
Micah Kelly 17:53.00 17:45.00 8.00
Luke Socolofsky 17:53.00 17:44.00 9.00
Caleb Hardy 17:53.00 17:22.00 31.00
Elijah Pardo 17:54.00 18:08.00 ( 14.00 )
Sameer Saptarshi 17:54.00 18:33.00 ( 39.00 )
Conner Culhane 17:56.00 --
Jeff Zelkin 17:58.00 17:29.00 29.00
Cobi Lasota 18:01.00 --
Mike McKee 18:03.00 18:38.00 ( 35.00 )
Kieran Nay 18:03.00 16:21.00 1:42.00
Jacob Regalado 18:03.00 19:04.00 ( 1:01.00 )
Connor O'Keefe 18:03.00 18:28.00 ( 25.00 )

Overall Race Statistics - Boys

Athletes Who Ran Both Meets
What20162015
Average Time:18:01.6817:48.79
WhatDifferenceCount
Common Athletes12.89533
Middle 80%:2.36426
Top 10%:-1.2553
Top 25%:-2.51132
Top 50%:-1.07266
Bottom 50%:26.80267
Bottom 10%:1:49.8754
Seniors:20.22258
Juniors:6.77188
Sophomores:5.1486
Freshmen:-1:01.001
8th Graders:
7th Graders:
Overall Stats
WhatThis MeetThat Meet
Average Time:18:28.0817:51.91
Top 100 Average:16:02.6915:38.55
1st-10th Place:15:19.3014:56.70
11th-20th Place:15:44.7015:16.50
21st-30th Place:15:54.3015:25.70
31st-40th Place:15:59.8015:35.40
41st-50th Place:16:03.1015:41.40
51st-60th Place:16:07.5015:46.60
61st-70th Place:16:13.1015:54.10
71st-80th Place:16:19.1015:54.10
81st-90th Place:16:21.9015:58.20
91st-100th Place:16:24.1016:01.70

Interestingly, the summary data is somewhat less telling for the girls:

Athletes Who Ran Both Meets
What20162015
Average Time:21:11.2820:59.25
WhatDifferenceCount
Common Athletes12.03387
Middle 80%:6.77309
Top 10%:-13.8938
Top 25%:-4.2894
Top 50%:-2.57193
Bottom 50%:26.55194
Bottom 10%:1:19.1039
Seniors:19.60133
Juniors:7.86138
Sophomores:9.65112
Freshmen:-29.254
8th Graders:
7th Graders:
Overall Stats
WhatThis MeetThat Meet
Average Time:21:43.4621:26.47
Top 100 Average:18:47.0018:32.62
1st-10th Place:17:39.0017:33.10
11th-20th Place:18:16.6018:04.10
21st-30th Place:18:34.1018:21.40
31st-40th Place:18:47.5018:29.70
41st-50th Place:18:54.4018:36.80
51st-60th Place:18:59.7018:43.70
61st-70th Place:19:04.1018:52.60
71st-80th Place:19:08.0018:52.60
81st-90th Place:19:11.6018:55.50
91st-100th Place:19:15.0019:00.50



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