Regional Forecast: 4A Region 3

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Niwot and Centaurus had a bit of a misfire of a match-up at the Northern League meet. They get another chance on Thursday.

There have been plenty of years where 4A Region 3 ranked as one of the lower-key 4A regionals. It won't this year.

This one will be decided Thursday on the trails behind Lyons High School and there promises to be some excitement along the way. We'll do girls first this time, then proceed to the boys.

4A Region 3 Girls

1Niwot High School (CO)36
1) Taylor James18:07.401
2) Maggie Smith18:43.407
3) Joelle McDonald18:57.708
4) Annabelle Huddle19:07.409
5) Jeri Wilcox19:11.6011
Average Time: 18:49.50 Total Time: 1:34:07.50 1-5 Split: 1:04.20
6) Samrawit Dishon20:23.0023
7) Elise Gillett20:36.1026
2Valor Christian High School (CO)41
1) Riley Irwin18:14.903
2) Keely Jones18:18.604
3) Taylor Whitfield18:19.205
4) Kindyll Wetta19:16.2012
5) Emma Sees19:53.3017
Average Time: 18:48.44 Total Time: 1:34:02.20 1-5 Split: 1:38.40
6) Hadley Jason20:37.1027
7) Reese Dragovich20:43.9029
3Centaurus High School (CO)56
1) Riley Geldean18:11.002
2) Katie Hooten18:22.006
3) Molly Maksin19:21.0013
4) Grace Armstrong19:52.0016
5) Helen Gover20:02.0019
Average Time: 19:09.60 Total Time: 1:35:48.00 1-5 Split: 1:51.00
6) Allison Macdonald20:32.0024
7) Brooke Calvo20:33.0025
4George Washington High School (CO)136
1) Lexi Emerson19:09.0010
2) Delaney Gilfillan19:46.0015
3) Kyra Mangalik20:48.0030
4) Laine Ford21:08.0032
5) Addie Morris22:02.0049
Average Time: 20:34.60 Total Time: 1:42:53.00 1-5 Split: 2:53.00
6) Gabrielle Camp-Lagueux22:23.0051
7) Julia Jenulis23:54.0059
5Standley Lake High School (CO)149
1) Sophia Abernethy19:34.0014
2) Madisyn Macklin20:20.0022
3) Katie Keating20:41.0028
4) Ryley Darnell21:36.0042
5) Delaney Huetson21:36.0043
Average Time: 20:45.40 Total Time: 1:43:47.00 1-5 Split: 2:02.00
6) Julianne Pelletier21:38.0045
7) Emily Salerno21:51.0047
6Erie High School (CO)157
1) Emily Condon19:56.0018
2) Emma Osborn21:03.0031
3) Alia Brand21:13.0033
4) Isabel Sease21:17.0035
5) Audrey Joseph21:30.0040
Average Time: 20:59.80 Total Time: 1:44:59.00 1-5 Split: 1:34.00
6) Cassidy True21:31.0041
7) Emmalee Fischer22:17.0050
7Thomas Jefferson High School (CO)229
1) Olivia Cech21:18.0036
2) Megan George21:29.0039
3) Morgan George21:51.0046
4) Phoebe Briney21:59.0048
5) Jazz Wright24:16.0060
Average Time: 22:10.60 Total Time: 1:50:53.00 1-5 Split: 2:58.00
6) Malia McDorman25:36.0068
7) Vanessa Castro-Ramirez32:44.0084
8Northfield High School (CO)232
1) Riley Buese20:19.9021
2) Ella Vollmer21:14.1034
3) Mackenzie Kilk22:26.0052
4) Audre Lewis22:54.0054
5) Sydney Jaques26:07.0071
Average Time: 22:36.20 Total Time: 1:53:01.00 1-5 Split: 5:47.10
6) Izzy Motarjeme26:32.0074
7) Nicole Sarria30:15.0080
9Vista Peak High School (CO)246
1) Patricia Ruiz21:21.0038
2) Sarah Machacek21:37.0044
3) Wendy De Reza22:50.0053
4) Jordyn Stapleton23:24.0055
5) Andrea Burba23:38.0056
Average Time: 22:34.00 Total Time: 1:52:50.00 1-5 Split: 2:17.00
6) Brenda O'Riley25:31.0067
7) Anna Dorny26:57.0076
10John F. Kennedy High School (CO)268
1) Judith Dietz20:09.0020
2) Ami Pritchett23:51.0058
3) Julia Whitman24:24.0061
4) Elizabeth Banuelos24:32.0063
5) Sara Lusk25:24.0066
Average Time: 23:40.00 Total Time: 1:58:20.00 1-5 Split: 5:15.00
6) Miya Trujillo25:59.0070
7) Daisy Gutierrez26:24.0072
11Alameda International High School (CO)305
1) Angel Bernard21:20.0037
2) Jocelyn Medina Pena24:29.0062
3) Evelyn Alvarado25:03.0064
4) Sarahi Burciaga25:58.0069
5) Asya Hampton26:26.0073
Average Time: 24:39.20 Total Time: 2:03:16.00 1-5 Split: 5:06.00
6) Evelyn Carreon27:43.9277
7) Dianna Carrillo28:03.0078
12Arvada High School (CO)357
1) Allyson Doyle23:38.0057
2) Feranda Guerra25:22.0065
3) Catherine Bui26:37.0075
4) Haley Stimack30:00.0079
5) Ziah Madsen31:09.0081
Average Time: 27:21.20 Total Time: 2:16:46.00 1-5 Split: 7:31.00
6) Shayna McCartney31:26.4482
7) Natalie Ensle31:49.0083

The top three teams you see above are probably legitimately the top three teams in the region, but the differences between these three teams are not what the virtual meet scoring would indicate. Keep in mind that Niwot and Valor ran at Desert Twilight. Their virtual meet times are pretty much entirely Desert Twilight times.

Not that Niwot and Valor aren't very good teams, only that they're not as far ahead of Centaurus as the virtual meet is hinting. In fact, Centaurus could conceivably beat both of them on Thursday and nobody should walk away shaking their heads in disbelief if that were to happen.

The truth is, this one is too close to call, for any of first, second, or third places. Being a regional meet, there's a sense it which it doesn't matter. Just finish in the top four and you're golden. I've a hunch, though, you can't count on these teams thinking that way.

That leaves one more team to get a state berth out of this region. Could be George Washington, could be Standley Lake, could be Erie. It will likely take a minor miracle for any of the rest of the region's teams to squeeze in on that action.

Honestly, I kind of like GW's chances here. If it's the Patriots who will advance, they'll need big performances out of two freshmen--Lexi Emerson and Delaney Gilfillan

Watch and see what happens here.

Individually, it's probably Taylor James or Riley Geldean for the regional title. We missed seeing a preview of that when James didn't run at the Northern League meet, but this showdown has been brewing for a while. 

Top ten places will be difficult to come by, with Valor, Niwot, and Centaurus all figuring to grab at least a couple of those slots. And Lexi Emerson, at least, figures here as well.

Who gets individual berths to State will hinge a lot on which is the fourth team qualifying for State. If that fourth team is GW, it could be a mad scramble for what will likely be only one or two places, if that. Sophia Abernethy of Standley Lake and Emily Condon of Erie are the top candidates there. Northfield's Riley Buese is another with a shot. 

Click Next for the 4A Region 3 boys preview.