Regional Forecasts: 5A Region 4 (updated)

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If you haven't thought of Julia Schlepp as a possible winner of the regional girls crown, you aren't yet done thinking about that race.

Historically, 5A Region 4 is one of Colorado's toughest regions. It may not be this year's toughest 5A region, but it's still solid and still a nightmare to advance to State out of.

This year, the regional meet will be held at the southern end of the region, at the Adams County Fairgrounds in Brighton. The host courses for this region tend to be fast and this certainly qualifies on that score. 

We'll start with the boys this time around.

5A Region 4 Boys

1Fort Collins High School (CO)51
1) Joshua Krafsur16:02.003
2) James Gregory16:08.005
3) Jack Shore16:29.008
4) Calbert Guest16:59.0016
5) Cody Larsen17:07.0019
Average Time: 16:33.00 Total Time: 1:22:45.00 1-5 Split: 1:05.00
6) Matthew Boyle17:15.0024
7) William Bush17:18.0025
2Poudre High School (CO)64
1) Bryce Pietenpol16:04.004
2) John Houdeshell16:38.0011
3) Bryan Martino16:40.0012
4) Jeremy Harms16:53.0015
5) Alex Giglio17:13.0022
Average Time: 16:41.60 Total Time: 1:23:28.00 1-5 Split: 1:09.00
6) Isak Redmon17:27.0030
7) William Undy18:03.0042
3Fossil Ridge High School (CO)75
1) Blake Hubert15:55.002
2) Matt Hubert16:27.007
3) Peter Martin17:03.0017
4) Eric Wright17:14.0023
5) Andrew Hunt17:19.0026
Average Time: 16:47.60 Total Time: 1:23:58.00 1-5 Split: 1:24.00
6) Tyler Wangen17:20.0027
7) Josh Gallier17:22.0029
4Broomfield High School (CO)99
1) Michael Mooney15:41.001
2) Joseph Carwin16:20.006
3) Kip Mielke17:06.0018
4) Hayden Van De Pol17:40.0036
5) Bradley Morgan17:52.0038
Average Time: 16:55.80 Total Time: 1:24:39.00 1-5 Split: 2:11.00
6) Grant Smith18:16.0046
7) John Zack18:20.0049
5Loveland High School (CO)122
1) Zac Witman16:35.0010
2) Kellis Ward16:47.2013
3) Lucas Westbrook17:08.6021
4) Yared Scalise17:37.0034
5) Jared Myers18:09.6044
Average Time: 17:15.48 Total Time: 1:26:17.40 1-5 Split: 1:34.60
6) Connor Lindgren18:19.1048
7) Stephen Ritschard18:20.0050
6Rocky Mountain High School (CO)147
1) Conner Culhane16:52.0014
2) James Runge17:20.0028
3) Zach Hupfer17:36.0033
4) Anthony Luongo17:38.0035
5) Luis Caballero17:41.0037
Average Time: 17:25.40 Total Time: 1:27:07.00 1-5 Split: 49.00
6) Luke Cunning17:56.0040
7) Jon Cathcart17:57.0041
7Horizon High School (CO)206
1) Gavin Glaza16:30.009
2) Nyath Wood17:56.0039
3) Kade Bullion18:03.0043
4) Alex Mcclaren18:41.0055
5) Michael Gines19:05.3060
Average Time: 18:03.06 Total Time: 1:30:15.30 1-5 Split: 2:35.30
6) Tommy White19:06.0061
7) Orlando Brady19:07.0062
8Prairie View High School (CO)252
1) Alexander Gutierrez17:36.0032
2) Antonio Salcido-Alcantar18:17.0047
3) Robert Hanson18:21.0051
4) Ian Gerace18:40.0054
5) Blake Bushlack19:37.0068
Average Time: 18:30.20 Total Time: 1:32:31.00 1-5 Split: 2:01.00
6) Ahmad Abbas19:43.0069
7) Bryan Croft19:43.0070
9Brighton High School (CO)277
1) Chase Addison17:30.0031
2) Tyler Zirker18:16.0045
3) Joshua Bowers18:23.0052
4) Patrick King19:52.0074
5) Max Weber19:56.0075
Average Time: 18:47.40 Total Time: 1:33:57.00 1-5 Split: 2:26.00
6) Alex Robinson20:02.0076
7) Tyler Robinson20:05.0077
10Northglenn High School (CO)278
1) Cole Bergman17:07.0020
2) Julio Ramos Gomez18:43.0056
3) Porter Bergman19:16.0065
4) Drew Baker19:26.0066
5) Alex Diaz19:47.0071
Average Time: 18:51.80 Total Time: 1:34:19.00 1-5 Split: 2:40.00
6) Alexander Lage19:48.0072
7) Mitchell Swetich19:51.0073
11Mountain Range High School (CO)290
1) Brendan Quintero18:27.0053
2) Keegan Hughes18:49.0057
3) Dakota Winters18:49.0058
4) Evan Rangel18:59.0059
5) Garrett Kehmeier19:11.0063
Average Time: 18:51.00 Total Time: 1:34:15.00 1-5 Split: 44.00
6) Edward Walton19:15.0064
7) Joseph Chiolero19:28.0067
12Adams City High School (CO)400
1) Thomas Olson20:35.0078
2) Larry Gallegos22:00.0079
3) Johnathon Meyers22:26.0080
4) Jose Rodriguez-Tapia23:34.0081
5) Jaden Forsythe25:54.0082
Average Time: 22:53.80 Total Time: 1:54:29.00 1-5 Split: 5:19.00
6) Stephen Ronquillo25:55.0083
7) Matt Silva26:37.0084

Fort Collins takes the virtual meet over Poudre, but as recently as the Thornton meet at the end of September, Poudre got the better of Fort Collins in a head-to-head. So, there's still plenty to be decided here, but both teams do figure to be headed to State.

Fossil Ridge comes up next in the virtual meet. The Sabercats aren't out of the hunt for a regional title, but they figure to have a slightly more remote shot than either Poudre or Fort Collins. If, however, Fossil can close down their 2-3 gap or move it to a 3-4 or 4-5 gap, their chances improve considerably.

Broomfield comes up #4 in the virtual meet analysis, and they probably deserve to be there, but this is a team that needs to effectively cover their backside against threats from Loveland and Rocky Mountain. Broomfield probably needs no reminders that Rocky Mountain beat them at last week's Front Range League meet. 

So, the #4 slot figures to get contentious.

Individually, Michael Mooney has a gaudy 15:41 time from Liberty Bell that puts him atop the virtual meet. But, Blake Hubert beat Mooney at the Front Range League meet. So, things aren't quite settled here yet. Joshua Krafsur and Bryce Pietenpol hold potential for upsetting the apple cart.

So far as individual qualifiers go, the top three Fort Collins schools aren't showing signs of leaving a lot of open places hanging around. If Broomfield doesn't make it as a team, Michael Mooney and Joseph Carwin have been running well enough to be in contention for an individual berth. Zac Witman of Loveland and Gavin Glaza of Horizon are also well-positioned. 

The top 15 places will go by quickly, though, so nobody (except maybe Mooney) brings much margin of error into the individual qualifying game.

Click on Next for the 5A Region 4 girls preview.