What Difference Will the New Field Sizes Make at State Cross Country?


Look for a few minor changes at state cross country as a result of the new field sizes. Photo by Erin Percy.

It is now official. The field sizes for Colorado State Cross Country 2016 will be 16 boys and girls teams for 2A, and 20 each of boys and girls teams from 3A, 4A, and 5A.

Well, actually, if some 2A region doesn't have four full boys or girls teams, I suppose the 2A field could drop below 16 teams. But, that's not likely.

Will the new field sizes make any difference? Probably, but the differences will be small.

For 3A, there will be no change. There were 20 teams of both genders in 2015, and there will be 20 teams of both genders in 2016. I can't even begin to make up a story about how field size will change the 3A races. To be sure, 3A looks to be a tougher classification than last year, but that has everything to do with a few teams migrating down from 4A and nothing to do with field size.

2A will also be little changed. The boys field will actually be one team smaller than last year, but the girls field will grow by a few teams. Potentially, that could mean it takes a little longer to clear the course from the 2A girls race. Theoretically, more teams in the 2A girls field means scores drift a little higher overall, but that's unlikely to impact the top teams in any meaningful way. There remains a wide disparity between the top 2A teams and the rest of the field, meaning scores of the top teams are unlikely to be impacted by additional teams in the field. Look for a strong possibility of very low team scores and tight margins of victory and defeat once again this year.

We won't start to see more separation between the top teams in 2A in any systematic sort of way until and unless we start scoring four instead of three.

The biggest differences should be seen in 4A and 5A. 

The 4A fields go from 24 to 20 teams, while the 5A fields go from 25 to 20 teams. The first, and most important, impact of these field size reductions will be a little more breathing room where the course starts to constrict at around 200 meters and at the hairpin turn back to the west before the race enters the Athlete Village. Beyond that, the course was plenty wide enough to handle the 4A and 5A fields.

The reduction in team counts will be offset, though only slightly, by a few more individuals qualifying for state--at least in 5A.

Last year, five teams from each of five 5A regions qualified for state. Individuals qualifying for state were those earning spots in the top 15 but not on state-qualifying teams. Theoretically, at least, with only four teams qualifying out of each region, there is greater opportunity for individuals from non-qualifying teams to make the field.

In 4A, it doesn't quite work that way. In 2015, 4A had six regions with four teams qualifying out of each region. This year, it's five regions with four qualifying out of each region. The prospects for an individual qualifying last year versus this year are pretty much a wash. In anything, 4A should expect to see fewer individuals in the field, due to the fact that individuals will qualify out of only five regions, not six.

With smaller fields in 4A and 5A, the importance of the fifth runner is slightly diminished over previous years. Fewer teams in the field means fewer scoring runners to finish behind and, therefore, less potential for an elevated fifth-runner score. 

It is a fascinating fact, however, about the 2015 state meet that three of the four 4A and 5A state titles were won by teams whose fifth runner finished behind the fifth runner of the second-place team. So, clearly, in these cases none of the second-place teams would have moved up to first in a smaller field. And, in the one case where the first-place team also had the top-finishing fifth runner (Mountain Vista boys, of course), nobody was within shouting distance of them, anyway.

For the record, Mountain Vista's sixth runner finished ahead of everyone else's fifth runner, and very nearly ahead of everyone else's third runner.

All that to say that it would be unusual, but not unheard of, for a difference in field size between 25 and 20 to make a difference in which wins the state title. Overall, though, shrinking the field will tend to tighten up the scoring.

The argument has been made that smaller state meet field sizes will tend to discourage teams, and especially those teams with the misfortune of being locked into especially competitive regions. Certainly, that is one way the ball could bounce. Another way the ball could bounce, however, is toward an increased sense of urgency about training since not as many teams will make it to the dance this year. My hunch is that there will be teams falling into both categories. We could speculate as to why teams fall into one category or the other, but that would venture beyond the scope of this article.

Listing of All State Cross Country Meets by Field Size