The idea of this article is to take a look at how a virtual meet of returning athletes from the 2015 season compares with the state meet results of the 2016 season.
All sorts of things factor into this. This is about improvement, but it's not only about improvement. Besides improvement, things that can impact a team's standing from one year to the next are move-ins, move-outs, injuries, incoming freshmen, and athletes who decide not to come out the next year.
Still, it's interesting to take a look at how things shift from one year to the next. The first table you see below lists the top 20 1A Boys teams at the end of 2015 based on a virtual meet of top marks. Note that this virtual meet only scores eight deep and does not include relays. As such it's not going to provide a perfect comparison to the 2016 state meet results, but it does provide a window:
Boys - Team Rankings - 14 Events Scored
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1) Heritage Christian Acade 66 2) Springfield High School 58
3) Idalia High School 42 4) Shining Mountain Waldorf 40
5) Arickaree High School 38 6) Eads High School 34
7) Cheraw High School 33 8) Baca County 30
9) Pawnee High School 29 10) Lake City Community Scho 22
11) Granada High School 19 12) Sangre de Cristo High Sc 18
13) Antonito High School 15 14) Peetz High School 10
15) Kit Carson High School 10 16) McClave High School 9
17) Stratton/Liberty High Sc 8 18) Cheyenne Wells High Scho 8
19) Genoa-Hugo High School 7 20) Holly High School 7
And, now, a look at how 1A Boys actually finished this May:
Men - 1A - Team Rankings - 18 Events Scored
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1) Heritage Christian 126 2) Springfield 91
3) Shining Mtn. Waldorf 55 4) Eads 54
5) Lake City Community 40 6) Cheraw 38
7) Idalia 37 8) Arickaree 36
8) Baca County 36 10) Flagler 34
11) Plateau Valley 27 12) North Park 26
12) Pawnee 26 14) McClave 21
15) Fleming 20 16) Genoa-Hugo 18
17) Otis 17 18) Granada 16.50
19) Stratton 11 19) Holly 11
The biggest mover here would appear to be Flagler. Several teams--including Plateau Valley, North Park, Pawnee, Fleming, and Otis also moved from outside the projected top 20 to solid places in the actual top 20.
The "trouble" with 1A is that often an improved team turns out to be mostly an improved individual--in this case Cameron Klann. Klann was the #3 returning long jumper from 2015, but added the 100 and 200 to his resume in a serious way between 2015 and 2016. That, and a nice 4x100, accounted for Flagler's jump in point production.
Nevertheless, Flagler did more than any other 1A school to exceed expectations from the year previous at this year's state meet.
Complete 1A Boys virtual meet of returning runners from 2015