Earlier today, I did the first article in the series on 3A Boys. I refer you back (and have linked you back) to that article for introductory comments on the why of this particular series. In a nutshell, though, I mean to answer the question of how useful preseason virtual meets are for predicting team order of finish at state.
We are using virtual meets from last year and state meet results from last year to shed light on that question.
5A Girls 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
Shown below is a preseason virtual meet team scoring for last fall for 5A Girls:
1 | Cherry Creek High School (CO) | 130 | ||
1) Devon Peterson | 18:08.30 | 7 | ||
2) Lillian Markusch | 18:34.20 | 18 | ||
3) Katie Plomondon | 18:56.90 | 28 | ||
4) Anne Raymond | 19:11.00 | 35 | ||
5) Kiera Pelletier | 19:16.00 | 42 | ||
Average Time: 18:49.28 Total Time: 1:34:06.40 1-5 Split: 1:07.70 | ||||
6) Lisa Swartz | 19:42.00 | 70 | ||
7) Isabel Anema | 20:12.50 | 105 | ||
2 | Fairview High School (CO) | 135 | ||
1) Maya Browning | 17:51.00 | 2 | ||
2) Zetta Mason | 18:47.00 | 23 | ||
3) Katia Beggan | 19:07.00 | 33 | ||
4) Hailey Leader | 19:11.00 | 36 | ||
5) Sarah King | 19:16.00 | 41 | ||
Average Time: 18:50.40 Total Time: 1:34:12.00 1-5 Split: 1:25.00 | ||||
6) Sadie Cotton | 19:20.00 | 44 | ||
7) Tatjana Kunz | 19:41.00 | 69 | ||
3 | Monarch High School (CO) | 163 | ||
1) Holly Bent | 17:55.00 | 4 | ||
2) Audrey Lookner | 18:03.00 | 6 | ||
3) Liz Hogan | 18:30.00 | 15 | ||
4) Daisy Fuchs | 19:31.10 | 62 | ||
5) Jensen Avey | 19:48.00 | 76 | ||
Average Time: 18:45.42 Total Time: 1:33:47.10 1-5 Split: 1:53.00 | ||||
6) Abby Hein | 19:56.20 | 85 | ||
7) Emily Hoffmann | 20:11.00 | 104 | ||
4 | Pine Creek High School (CO) | 218 | ||
1) Athena Kuehn | 18:16.00 | 9 | ||
2) Devon Kroeker | 19:20.00 | 43 | ||
3) Sarah Bassett | 19:24.00 | 48 | ||
4) Fiona Perschke | 19:25.00 | 53 | ||
5) Calyssa Trautner | 19:35.00 | 65 | ||
Average Time: 19:12.00 Total Time: 1:36:00.00 1-5 Split: 1:19.00 | ||||
6) Madeline Alhamra | 20:18.80 | 111 | ||
7) Klara Aspelin | 21:44.00 | 242 | ||
5 | Mountain Vista High School (CO) | 256 | ||
1) Allie Chipman | 17:52.50 | 3 | ||
2) Madison Easton | 18:59.30 | 31 | ||
3) Jessica Nats | 19:42.40 | 71 | ||
4) Abby Suntken | 19:44.00 | 72 | ||
5) Lauren Soares | 19:50.60 | 79 | ||
Average Time: 19:13.76 Total Time: 1:36:08.80 1-5 Split: 1:58.10 | ||||
6) Sarah Parker | 19:57.00 | 86 | ||
7) Mauren Fitzsimmons | 19:57.00 | 87 | ||
6 | Cherokee Trail High School (CO) | 269 | ||
1) Jordan Herrera | 18:51.70 | 25 | ||
2) Amy McConnell | 19:12.10 | 37 | ||
3) Jessica Brookie | 19:26.00 | 55 | ||
4) Kennedey McCurdy | 19:46.00 | 74 | ||
5) Savanah Nesvold | 19:50.00 | 78 | ||
Average Time: 19:25.16 Total Time: 1:37:05.80 1-5 Split: 58.30 | ||||
6) Elyse Bartelmey | 20:10.00 | 103 | ||
7) Ella Steckler | 20:29.20 | 130 | ||
7 | Fossil Ridge High School (CO) | 270 | ||
1) Kate Leatherman | 18:34.00 | 16 | ||
2) Michaela Bonenberger | 19:25.00 | 52 | ||
3) Promise Butler | 19:26.00 | 56 | ||
4) Sydney Teslow | 19:36.00 | 66 | ||
5) Ellie Ewer | 19:52.00 | 80 | ||
Average Time: 19:22.60 Total Time: 1:36:53.00 1-5 Split: 1:18.00 | ||||
6) Jillian Gallegos | 20:21.20 | 117 | ||
7) Emma Habein | 20:23.00 | 121 | ||
8 | Fort Collins High School (CO) | 293 | ||
1) Lauren Gregory | 17:15.40 | 1 | ||
2) Becca Schulte | 19:25.00 | 50 | ||
3) Claire Hooker | 19:25.00 | 51 | ||
4) Isabelle Ponce-Pore | 20:01.00 | 92 | ||
5) Carlie Grabenstein | 20:07.00 | 99 | ||
Average Time: 19:14.68 Total Time: 1:36:13.40 1-5 Split: 2:51.60 | ||||
6) Annelise Sherman | 20:44.00 | 161 | ||
7) Peyton Slack | 21:38.00 | 236 | ||
9 | Broomfield High School (CO) | 295 | ||
1) Emily Mitchem | 18:18.20 | 10 | ||
2) Katelyn Mitchem | 18:40.00 | 21 | ||
3) Laura Thompson | 19:46.00 | 75 | ||
4) Elaine Webber | 19:59.00 | 89 | ||
5) Ivy Gonzales | 20:08.00 | 100 | ||
Average Time: 19:22.24 Total Time: 1:36:51.20 1-5 Split: 1:49.80 | ||||
6) Vanessa Kort | 20:31.00 | 138 | ||
7) Alena Valdez | 20:38.00 | 154 | ||
10 | Horizon High School (CO) | 332 | ||
1) Megan Mooney | 17:55.00 | 5 | ||
2) Madison Mooney | 18:27.80 | 14 | ||
3) Natalie Platil | 18:59.00 | 30 | ||
4) Megan Esslinger | 20:19.00 | 114 | ||
5) Elizabeth Atwood | 20:54.00 | 169 | ||
Average Time: 19:18.96 Total Time: 1:36:34.80 1-5 Split: 2:59.00 | ||||
6) Taylor Bakel | 21:30.20 | 223 | ||
7) Lauren Knight | 21:35.00 | 228 | ||
11 | Rocky Mountain High School (CO) | 391 | ||
1) Elsa Roeber | 19:25.00 | 49 | ||
2) Kacey Doner | 19:27.80 | 58 | ||
3) Callin Naddy | 19:32.00 | 63 | ||
4) Lena Long-Shore | 20:09.00 | 101 | ||
5) Natalea Cohen | 20:23.00 | 120 | ||
Average Time: 19:47.36 Total Time: 1:38:56.80 1-5 Split: 58.00 | ||||
6) Aleyna Kaines | 21:25.00 | 214 | ||
7) Sabrina Mike | 22:09.00 | 275 | ||
12 | Rock Canyon High School (CO) | 399 | ||
1) Chloe Arbuckle | 19:08.00 | 34 | ||
2) Allison Janedis | 19:29.00 | 59 | ||
3) Kailey Rex | 19:49.00 | 77 | ||
4) Madeline Kelly | 20:13.00 | 106 | ||
5) Bailee Stones | 20:25.00 | 123 | ||
Average Time: 19:48.80 Total Time: 1:39:04.00 1-5 Split: 1:17.00 | ||||
6) Mackenna Balman | 20:28.00 | 125 | ||
7) Lila Bromley | 20:59.80 | 181 |
And, this is the state meet team scoring for the top dozen teams:
TEAM SCORES | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLACE | TEAM | POINTS | SCORERS | TIMES | ||
1 | Broomfield High School | 112 | 8+18+19+23+44 (50+53) | 1:02 1-5 Split | 19:46 Avg | ||
2 | Cherry Creek High School | 120 | 7+15+28+31+39 (93+161) | 1:02 1-5 Split | 19:51 Avg | ||
3 | Fairview High School | 124 | 6+12+25+36+45 (70+107) | 1:12 1-5 Split | 19:49 Avg | ||
4 | Mountain Vista High School | 132 | 3+5+26+47+51 (59+61) | 1:55 1-5 Split | 19:41 Avg | ||
5 | Coronado High School | 162 | 20+24+27+37+54 (158+172) | 0:47 1-5 Split | 20:04 Avg | ||
6 | Monarch High School | 253 | 14+49+58+60+72 (76+88) | 1:16 1-5 Split | 20:25 Avg | ||
7 | Dakota Ridge High School | 271 | 11+42+43+86+89 (110+130) | 1:37 1-5 Split | 20:29 Avg | ||
8 | Cherokee Trail High School | 281 | 22+32+64+81+82 (109+125) | 1:14 1-5 Split | 20:32 Avg | ||
9 | Grandview High School | 286 | 2+38+65+87+94 (142+144) | 2:57 1-5 Split | 20:19 Avg | ||
10 | Fort Collins High School | 319 | 1+34+84+98+102 (131+159) | 3:05 1-5 Split | 20:26 Avg | ||
11 | Horizon High School | 322 | 10+16+17+119+160 (162+173) | 3:22 1-5 Split | 20:43 Avg | ||
12 | Pine Creek High School | 335 | 9+33+66+103+124 (128+139) | 2:28 1-5 Split | 20:42 Avg |
Preliminary Assessment:
This virtual meet was not nearly as accurate as the 3A Boys one we looked at earlier. Still, the virtual meet picked nine of the eventual 12 top teams, though in a somewhat jumbled order.
And, we can identify critical reasons for some of the misses and shuffling. Broomfield was simply vastly improved over 2014. The cast of characters, though, was relatively consistent. It's hard to argue that Broomfield moving from 9th to 1st counts as anything other than a miss for the virtual meet. On the other hand, Coronado brought in two freshmen who made a world of difference on that team, and Grandview brought in Brie Oakley and Kaitlyn Mercer, a scoring freshmen, both of whom helped change a lot of things for the Wolves. Caroline Eck, a freshman, had a great deal to do with Mountain Vista's climb. On the other hand, Dakota Ridge had a very nice state meet, and their season counts as a miss for the virtual meet.
Once we allow for all that, the predictions for the top teams were not all that far off. Cherry Creek turned a predicted first into a second. Fairview turned a projected second into a third, and similarly down the line.
There were clearly issues in using a preseason virtual meet to project state order of finish, but on balance, the virtual meet gave us a good deal of insight into the eventual order of finish.
Having said all that, here's what a 5A Girls Preseason virtual meet for 2016 looks like.