How Good of a Predictor Are Virtual Meets? 5A Girls


Although McKenzie Gaines won't be back in Broomfield blue this fall, her outstanding freshman campaign was a big part of the reason Broomfield exceeded virtual meet expectations last fall. Photo by Alan Versaw.


Earlier today, I did the first article in the series on 3A Boys. I refer you back (and have linked you back) to that article for introductory comments on the why of this particular series. In a nutshell, though, I mean to answer the question of how useful preseason virtual meets are for predicting team order of finish at state.

We are using virtual meets from last year and state meet results from last year to shed light on that question.

5A Girls 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish

Shown below is a preseason virtual meet team scoring for last fall for 5A Girls:

1Cherry Creek High School (CO)130
1) Devon Peterson18:08.307
2) Lillian Markusch18:34.2018
3) Katie Plomondon18:56.9028
4) Anne Raymond19:11.0035
5) Kiera Pelletier19:16.0042
Average Time: 18:49.28 Total Time: 1:34:06.40 1-5 Split: 1:07.70
6) Lisa Swartz19:42.0070
7) Isabel Anema20:12.50105
2Fairview High School (CO)135
1) Maya Browning17:51.002
2) Zetta Mason18:47.0023
3) Katia Beggan19:07.0033
4) Hailey Leader19:11.0036
5) Sarah King19:16.0041
Average Time: 18:50.40 Total Time: 1:34:12.00 1-5 Split: 1:25.00
6) Sadie Cotton19:20.0044
7) Tatjana Kunz19:41.0069
3Monarch High School (CO)163
1) Holly Bent17:55.004
2) Audrey Lookner18:03.006
3) Liz Hogan18:30.0015
4) Daisy Fuchs19:31.1062
5) Jensen Avey19:48.0076
Average Time: 18:45.42 Total Time: 1:33:47.10 1-5 Split: 1:53.00
6) Abby Hein19:56.2085
7) Emily Hoffmann20:11.00104
4Pine Creek High School (CO)218
1) Athena Kuehn18:16.009
2) Devon Kroeker19:20.0043
3) Sarah Bassett19:24.0048
4) Fiona Perschke19:25.0053
5) Calyssa Trautner19:35.0065
Average Time: 19:12.00 Total Time: 1:36:00.00 1-5 Split: 1:19.00
6) Madeline Alhamra20:18.80111
7) Klara Aspelin21:44.00242
5Mountain Vista High School (CO)256
1) Allie Chipman17:52.503
2) Madison Easton18:59.3031
3) Jessica Nats19:42.4071
4) Abby Suntken19:44.0072
5) Lauren Soares19:50.6079
Average Time: 19:13.76 Total Time: 1:36:08.80 1-5 Split: 1:58.10
6) Sarah Parker19:57.0086
7) Mauren Fitzsimmons19:57.0087
6Cherokee Trail High School (CO)269
1) Jordan Herrera18:51.7025
2) Amy McConnell19:12.1037
3) Jessica Brookie19:26.0055
4) Kennedey McCurdy19:46.0074
5) Savanah Nesvold19:50.0078
Average Time: 19:25.16 Total Time: 1:37:05.80 1-5 Split: 58.30
6) Elyse Bartelmey20:10.00103
7) Ella Steckler20:29.20130
7Fossil Ridge High School (CO)270
1) Kate Leatherman18:34.0016
2) Michaela Bonenberger19:25.0052
3) Promise Butler19:26.0056
4) Sydney Teslow19:36.0066
5) Ellie Ewer19:52.0080
Average Time: 19:22.60 Total Time: 1:36:53.00 1-5 Split: 1:18.00
6) Jillian Gallegos20:21.20117
7) Emma Habein20:23.00121
8Fort Collins High School (CO)293
1) Lauren Gregory17:15.401
2) Becca Schulte19:25.0050
3) Claire Hooker19:25.0051
4) Isabelle Ponce-Pore20:01.0092
5) Carlie Grabenstein20:07.0099
Average Time: 19:14.68 Total Time: 1:36:13.40 1-5 Split: 2:51.60
6) Annelise Sherman20:44.00161
7) Peyton Slack21:38.00236
9Broomfield High School (CO)295
1) Emily Mitchem18:18.2010
2) Katelyn Mitchem18:40.0021
3) Laura Thompson19:46.0075
4) Elaine Webber19:59.0089
5) Ivy Gonzales20:08.00100
Average Time: 19:22.24 Total Time: 1:36:51.20 1-5 Split: 1:49.80
6) Vanessa Kort20:31.00138
7) Alena Valdez20:38.00154
10Horizon High School (CO)332
1) Megan Mooney17:55.005
2) Madison Mooney18:27.8014
3) Natalie Platil18:59.0030
4) Megan Esslinger20:19.00114
5) Elizabeth Atwood20:54.00169
Average Time: 19:18.96 Total Time: 1:36:34.80 1-5 Split: 2:59.00
6) Taylor Bakel21:30.20223
7) Lauren Knight21:35.00228
11Rocky Mountain High School (CO)391
1) Elsa Roeber19:25.0049
2) Kacey Doner19:27.8058
3) Callin Naddy19:32.0063
4) Lena Long-Shore20:09.00101
5) Natalea Cohen20:23.00120
Average Time: 19:47.36 Total Time: 1:38:56.80 1-5 Split: 58.00
6) Aleyna Kaines21:25.00214
7) Sabrina Mike22:09.00275
12Rock Canyon High School (CO)399
1) Chloe Arbuckle19:08.0034
2) Allison Janedis19:29.0059
3) Kailey Rex19:49.0077
4) Madeline Kelly20:13.00106
5) Bailee Stones20:25.00123
Average Time: 19:48.80 Total Time: 1:39:04.00 1-5 Split: 1:17.00
6) Mackenna Balman20:28.00125
7) Lila Bromley20:59.80181


And, this is the state meet team scoring for the top dozen teams:


TEAM SCORES
PLACETEAMPOINTSSCORERSTIMES
1Broomfield High School1128+18+19+23+44 (50+53)1:02 1-5 Split | 19:46 Avg
2Cherry Creek High School1207+15+28+31+39 (93+161)1:02 1-5 Split | 19:51 Avg
3Fairview High School1246+12+25+36+45 (70+107)1:12 1-5 Split | 19:49 Avg
4Mountain Vista High School1323+5+26+47+51 (59+61)1:55 1-5 Split | 19:41 Avg
5Coronado High School16220+24+27+37+54 (158+172)0:47 1-5 Split | 20:04 Avg
6Monarch High School25314+49+58+60+72 (76+88)1:16 1-5 Split | 20:25 Avg
7Dakota Ridge High School27111+42+43+86+89 (110+130)1:37 1-5 Split | 20:29 Avg
8Cherokee Trail High School28122+32+64+81+82 (109+125)1:14 1-5 Split | 20:32 Avg
9Grandview High School2862+38+65+87+94 (142+144)2:57 1-5 Split | 20:19 Avg
10Fort Collins High School3191+34+84+98+102 (131+159)3:05 1-5 Split | 20:26 Avg
11Horizon High School32210+16+17+119+160 (162+173)3:22 1-5 Split | 20:43 Avg
12Pine Creek High School3359+33+66+103+124 (128+139)2:28 1-5 Split | 20:42 Avg


Preliminary Assessment:

This virtual meet was not nearly as accurate as the 3A Boys one we looked at earlier. Still, the virtual meet picked nine of the eventual 12 top teams, though in a somewhat jumbled order.

And, we can identify critical reasons for some of the misses and shuffling. Broomfield was simply vastly improved over 2014. The cast of characters, though, was relatively consistent. It's hard to argue that Broomfield moving from 9th to 1st counts as anything other than a miss for the virtual meet. On the other hand, Coronado brought in two freshmen who made a world of difference on that team, and Grandview brought in Brie Oakley and Kaitlyn Mercer, a scoring freshmen, both of whom helped change a lot of things for the Wolves. Caroline Eck, a freshman, had a great deal to do with Mountain Vista's climb. On the other hand, Dakota Ridge had a very nice state meet, and their season counts as a miss for the virtual meet.

Once we allow for all that, the predictions for the top teams were not all that far off. Cherry Creek turned a predicted first into a second. Fairview turned a projected second into a third, and similarly down the line. 

There were clearly issues in using a preseason virtual meet to project state order of finish, but on balance, the virtual meet gave us a good deal of insight into the eventual order of finish.

Having said all that, here's what a 5A Girls Preseason virtual meet for 2016 looks like.