How Good of a Predictor Are Virtual Meets? 2A Boys (corrected)


Luke Preble helped Telluride to a much better finish last fall than the preseason virtual meet had them projected for. Photo by Alan Versaw.


One more to go after this. Then we will try to answer the big picture question.

For now, though, we compare the 2015 2A Boys Preseason Virtual Meet with the actual 2015 results from state.

2A Boys 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish

The preseason virtual meet showed this:

#TeamScore123456
1Mancos High School213810---
2Telluride High School4621430---
3Ouray High School5261234---
4Lyons High School631557---
5Heritage Christian Academy74192332---
6Rocky Ford High School80112841---
7Resurrection Christian High School93213339---
8Clear Creek High School10794652---
9Peyton High School107133559---
10Wiggins High School110164054---
11Meeker High School113151880---
12Crested Butte Community School11544962---


Followed a few months later by these results at State:


  1.    17  Lyons                      (  16:39.9    49:59.6   2:19.0)
=========================================
  1      1  Paul Roberts SR                     15:33.7     4   ( 22) Cameron Cross SR                    18:20.4
  2      2  Joel Such SR                        16:33.2     5   ( 35) Colton Jonjak-Plahn FR              18:55.4
  3     14  Landon Milbrath SO                  17:52.7

  2.    34  Ouray                      (  17:32.0    52:35.9   0:56.8)
=========================================
  1      7  Nate Fedel SR                       17:07.5     4   ( 45) Martin Torres SR                    19:09.9
  2      9  Joey Fedel SR                       17:24.1     5   ( 47) Cooper Rondinelli FR                19:12.7
  3     18  Evan Vann SO                        18:04.3

  3.    48  Mancos                     (  17:49.2    53:27.4   1:43.7)
=========================================
  1      6  Ro Paschal SR                       17:06.8     4   ( 37) Nic Archuleta SR                    18:58.6
  2     10  Simon Kearns SO                     17:30.1     5   ( 48) Asa Kearns SR                       19:12.9
  3     32  Jake McKie SO                       18:50.5

  4.    54  Sargent High School        (  18:07.5    54:22.3   0:16.0)
=========================================
  1     16  Ethan Reschke SO                    18:02.1     4   ( 30) Logan Sessums SR                    18:42.6
  2     17  Leighton Burt JR                    18:02.1
  3     21  Jacob Robirds SO                    18:18.1

  5.    55  Telluride                  (  17:54.0    53:42.0   1:47.9)
=========================================
  1      4  Jack Plantz SR                      16:43.3     4   ( 39) Jaden Evans FR                      19:01.5
  2     25  Luke Preble SO                      18:27.5     5   ( 54) Spencer Keating FR                  19:24.3
  3     26  Sylvan Bald SR                      18:31.2

  6.    58  Rocky Ford                 (  17:57.6    53:52.6   2:03.0)
=========================================
  1      3  Cody Danley SO                      16:43.0     4   ( 36) Erik Rocha SR                       18:56.7
  2     24  Gary DeLeon SO                      18:23.6     5   ( 46) Brian Preston JR                    19:12.5
  3     31  Brandon Cardenas JR                 18:46.0

  7.    67  Peyton                     (  18:21.4    55:04.0   1:01.6)
=========================================
  1     13  Quinten Harris SR                   17:52.3     4   ( 41) Caleb Smith JR                      19:03.8
  2     20  Garhett Shaw JR                     18:17.8     5   ( 53) Gage Gellerman JR                   19:24.1
  3     34  Sammy Schuemann FR                  18:53.9

  8.    78  Heritage Christian Academy (  18:26.8    55:20.3   1:18.1)
=========================================
  1     11  Luke Gilliland SR                   17:42.8     4   ( 42) Seth Bruxvoort FR                   19:06.7
  2     29  Robbie Wagner SR                    18:36.6     5   ( 55) Jason Richard SR                    19:39.6
  3     38  Stephen Zonnefeld JR                19:00.9

  9.    92  Wiggins                    (  18:34.6    55:43.6   1:37.6)
=========================================
  1     12  Connor Kaufman JR                   17:44.9     4   ( 66) Reid Ernst SR                       20:26.2
  2     28  Trevor Dye SR                       18:36.2     5   ( 73) Caleb Hills JR                      20:50.1
  3     52  Peter Kammerzell JR                 19:22.5

 10.    98  Lake City Community        (  18:44.0    56:12.0   3:35.1)
=========================================
  1      5  Jake Murphy JR                      17:06.8     4   ( 71) Liam Whinnery SR                    20:45.8
  2     23  Isaac Borchers SO                   18:23.3     5   ( 77) Steele Harrison SR                  21:30.2
  3     70  Riley Moore SO                      20:41.9

 11.   109  Del Norte                  (  18:53.4    56:40.2   0:39.1)
=========================================
  1     27  Josiah Espinoza SR                  18:34.9     4   ( 56) Zach Friedrich SR                   19:40.9
  2     33  Carlos Parra SO                     18:51.3     5   ( 62) Samuel Lorenz FR                    20:10.3
  3     49  Luke Haefeli SR                     19:14.0

 12.   109  Crested Butte              (  18:43.3    56:09.9   2:30.4)
=========================================
  1      8  Aiden Truettner SR                  17:14.9     4   ( 60) Conrad Truettner SR                 19:56.2
  2     44  Hunter Wright FR                    19:09.7     5   ( 69) Benjamin Swift SR                   20:34.7
  3     57  Vincent Michel SO                   19:45.3

Initial Assessment

After adjusting to scoring three in the preseason virtual meet, this one came out much better than I had originally anticipated.

Of note, nine of the top 12 teams at state were correctly identified as top-12 team by the preseason virtual meet. None of those nine teams finished more than three places off of their projected preseason finish.

Eventual state champion Lyons came out fourth in the preseason virtual meet. That still counts as a miss, but not as big of a miss as we had under the first whack at this article. 

Perhaps the most conspicuous miss by the virtual meet was Sargent. The Farmers were a team that did not even register in the top 12 of the preseason virtual meet, yet ended up fourth when all the dust had settled.


2016 2A Boys Preseason Virtual Meet