Do Trends Exist in the Last 17 Years of 3A Girls Results?


Some of the best distance battles 3A has ever seen were waged between Kaitlin Hanenburg and Kara Slavoski. And distance times in 2009 and 2010 reflected the impact of the friendly rivalry.


Earlier this week, we looked at the last 17 years of state meet results for boys and found no strong trends, and no reason to believe that, overall, the 3A Boys state track and field meet is a significantly more competitive meet than it was in 2000.

Here, we ask the same questions about the 3A Girls state meet. The only results missing over this period of time are the 2000 girls pole vault. 

Shown below are the graphs of the average of the top six marks in each event each year since 2000. The events analyzed are the same events used for the boys. The vertical axis is in seconds for running events (lower is better) and in inches (higher is better) for field events.



Although 2007 marked the slowest year since 2000 for the 400 meter dash, times have been more or less in free fall since then. Overall, the 3A Girls 400 shows dramatic improvement since 2000.


Times were dropping like a rock during the Kaitlin Hanenburg/Kara Slavoski years but have more or less stabilized since then. Overall, though, times are a bit better than 15 years ago.


Although there's been a bit of a sawtooth effect here, times have improved overall since 2000.


The 4x100 has improved over time, and especially so in the last five years. This is not the same relay it was 15 years ago.


Times were in steady decline until last year. This year might help us see if 2016 was an anomaly or the reversal of a long-term trend.


Aside from a weak year in 2013, the 3A Girls high jump has remained remarkably steady over the last 17 years.


Surprisingly, there is very little in the way of a trend to be found here. 2010 was a weaker year, and ups and downs have marked the event over time, but there exists no long-term upward or downward trend.


The shot put began this time period with a couple of solid years, then slipped through 2011. Since 2011, however, marks have been historically unprecedented. 

The 3A Girls story, then is a very different story than 3A Boys. Almost without event exception 3A Girls was tougher in 2016 than the years around 2000. And, trends leading up to 2016 were fairly consistently toward better and better marks.

We conclude, then, that 3A Girls track and field is on the rise. If recent trends continue, it will continue to get more competitive.