One more to go after this. Then we will try to answer the big picture question.
For now, though, we compare the 2015 2A Boys Preseason Virtual Meet with the actual 2015 results from state.
2A Boys 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
The preseason virtual meet showed this:
# | Team | Score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mancos High School | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - | - | - |
2 | Telluride High School | 46 | 2 | 14 | 30 | - | - | - |
3 | Ouray High School | 52 | 6 | 12 | 34 | - | - | - |
4 | Lyons High School | 63 | 1 | 5 | 57 | - | - | - |
5 | Heritage Christian Academy | 74 | 19 | 23 | 32 | - | - | - |
6 | Rocky Ford High School | 80 | 11 | 28 | 41 | - | - | - |
7 | Resurrection Christian High School | 93 | 21 | 33 | 39 | - | - | - |
8 | Clear Creek High School | 107 | 9 | 46 | 52 | - | - | - |
9 | Peyton High School | 107 | 13 | 35 | 59 | - | - | - |
10 | Wiggins High School | 110 | 16 | 40 | 54 | - | - | - |
11 | Meeker High School | 113 | 15 | 18 | 80 | - | - | - |
12 | Crested Butte Community School | 115 | 4 | 49 | 62 | - | - | - |
Followed a few months later by these results at State:
1. 17 Lyons ( 16:39.9 49:59.6 2:19.0) ========================================= 1 1 Paul Roberts SR 15:33.7 4 ( 22) Cameron Cross SR 18:20.4 2 2 Joel Such SR 16:33.2 5 ( 35) Colton Jonjak-Plahn FR 18:55.4 3 14 Landon Milbrath SO 17:52.7 2. 34 Ouray ( 17:32.0 52:35.9 0:56.8) ========================================= 1 7 Nate Fedel SR 17:07.5 4 ( 45) Martin Torres SR 19:09.9 2 9 Joey Fedel SR 17:24.1 5 ( 47) Cooper Rondinelli FR 19:12.7 3 18 Evan Vann SO 18:04.3 3. 48 Mancos ( 17:49.2 53:27.4 1:43.7) ========================================= 1 6 Ro Paschal SR 17:06.8 4 ( 37) Nic Archuleta SR 18:58.6 2 10 Simon Kearns SO 17:30.1 5 ( 48) Asa Kearns SR 19:12.9 3 32 Jake McKie SO 18:50.5 4. 54 Sargent High School ( 18:07.5 54:22.3 0:16.0) ========================================= 1 16 Ethan Reschke SO 18:02.1 4 ( 30) Logan Sessums SR 18:42.6 2 17 Leighton Burt JR 18:02.1 3 21 Jacob Robirds SO 18:18.1 5. 55 Telluride ( 17:54.0 53:42.0 1:47.9) ========================================= 1 4 Jack Plantz SR 16:43.3 4 ( 39) Jaden Evans FR 19:01.5 2 25 Luke Preble SO 18:27.5 5 ( 54) Spencer Keating FR 19:24.3 3 26 Sylvan Bald SR 18:31.2 6. 58 Rocky Ford ( 17:57.6 53:52.6 2:03.0) ========================================= 1 3 Cody Danley SO 16:43.0 4 ( 36) Erik Rocha SR 18:56.7 2 24 Gary DeLeon SO 18:23.6 5 ( 46) Brian Preston JR 19:12.5 3 31 Brandon Cardenas JR 18:46.0 7. 67 Peyton ( 18:21.4 55:04.0 1:01.6) ========================================= 1 13 Quinten Harris SR 17:52.3 4 ( 41) Caleb Smith JR 19:03.8 2 20 Garhett Shaw JR 18:17.8 5 ( 53) Gage Gellerman JR 19:24.1 3 34 Sammy Schuemann FR 18:53.9 8. 78 Heritage Christian Academy ( 18:26.8 55:20.3 1:18.1) ========================================= 1 11 Luke Gilliland SR 17:42.8 4 ( 42) Seth Bruxvoort FR 19:06.7 2 29 Robbie Wagner SR 18:36.6 5 ( 55) Jason Richard SR 19:39.6 3 38 Stephen Zonnefeld JR 19:00.9 9. 92 Wiggins ( 18:34.6 55:43.6 1:37.6) ========================================= 1 12 Connor Kaufman JR 17:44.9 4 ( 66) Reid Ernst SR 20:26.2 2 28 Trevor Dye SR 18:36.2 5 ( 73) Caleb Hills JR 20:50.1 3 52 Peter Kammerzell JR 19:22.5 10. 98 Lake City Community ( 18:44.0 56:12.0 3:35.1) ========================================= 1 5 Jake Murphy JR 17:06.8 4 ( 71) Liam Whinnery SR 20:45.8 2 23 Isaac Borchers SO 18:23.3 5 ( 77) Steele Harrison SR 21:30.2 3 70 Riley Moore SO 20:41.9 11. 109 Del Norte ( 18:53.4 56:40.2 0:39.1) ========================================= 1 27 Josiah Espinoza SR 18:34.9 4 ( 56) Zach Friedrich SR 19:40.9 2 33 Carlos Parra SO 18:51.3 5 ( 62) Samuel Lorenz FR 20:10.3 3 49 Luke Haefeli SR 19:14.0 12. 109 Crested Butte ( 18:43.3 56:09.9 2:30.4) ========================================= 1 8 Aiden Truettner SR 17:14.9 4 ( 60) Conrad Truettner SR 19:56.2 2 44 Hunter Wright FR 19:09.7 5 ( 69) Benjamin Swift SR 20:34.7 3 57 Vincent Michel SO 19:45.3
Initial Assessment
After adjusting to scoring three in the preseason virtual meet, this one came out much better than I had originally anticipated.
Of note, nine of the top 12 teams at state were correctly identified as top-12 team by the preseason virtual meet. None of those nine teams finished more than three places off of their projected preseason finish.
Eventual state champion Lyons came out fourth in the preseason virtual meet. That still counts as a miss, but not as big of a miss as we had under the first whack at this article.
Perhaps the most conspicuous miss by the virtual meet was Sargent. The Farmers were a team that did not even register in the top 12 of the preseason virtual meet, yet ended up fourth when all the dust had settled.
2016 2A Boys Preseason Virtual Meet