Desert Dust Storm: Due to dessicated park conditions last fall, the start of the NXN-SW girls race raised a serious cloud of dust. Colorado Track XC file photo.
It may not be time to put on the uniforms yet, but those who hope to contend this November in Tempe have already begun putting in the miles toward that goal.
While I can't promise that this article (or the previous boys article) represents the final preseason word on Nike Cross Regionals - Southwest for 2010, it should be enough to get the conversation rolling. One thing is for certain, there are no gaping holes left by top teams from last year without hope of returning a solid entry again this fall.
Let's start with a look at last year's top five teams from Nike Cross Regionals - Southwest:
Fort Collins, Colorado - Coach Chris Suppes is careful about what he reveals, but I hope I've learned a few things about deciphering his code over the last three years. Fort Collins graduated three big contributors off of last year's team, but don't be surprised if he finds the right people to fill the gaps. Marci Witczak and Erin Hooker are back and figure to lead this year's team, and that despite the fact that neither had an especially good state track meet. Erin Hooker had a huge race at NXN last fall and, falling in pattern with many Ft. Collins girls of previous years, appears to be more at ease with cross country than track and field. Maddie Staab and Taleah McClintock are solid right behind Hooker and Witczak.
The Classical Academy, Colorado - TCA lost two girls who placed 18th and 31st at NXN. There is no disguising the fact that those two will be extremely difficult to replace. Four members of the NXN team are back, however, and coming off of solid track seasons. Those four--Shelby Stableford, Meredith Sloan, Brittany Droogsma, and Nicole Sassaman (who ran in the open race at NXN-SW but moved up onto the team for NXN) should be the cornerstones of the team. But it takes at least five. TCA will need some people stepping up into new levels of performance and responsibility.
Mountain View, Utah - Mountain View had the distinction of nearly, but not quite, making it to NXN with both their boys' and girls' squads. The Bruins' top female finisher from NXN-SW last year--Ashleigh Warner--is back, but the next two places have graduated. Questions of depth center around last year's team as it morphs into this year's team. With two key contributors gone off a team of only six from last year's NXN-SW race where the sixth finisher was quite a way back in the field, the Bruins will have to bring some people along. Jennica Redd and Warner both had solid track seasons and are clearly ready to carry their share of the burden this fall, but the remaining composition of the team has a lot of question marks at this time.
Park City, Utah - Even if the school is 3A, it says something special when one team sweeps the top five places in the 3200 at the state track meet (all under 11:50 at altitude). Such is the distinction Park City enjoys. Three of those five should be in red-and-white for cross country season this fall. This is clearly a team with a great shot at rising in the standings at NXN-SW. Rebecca Cunningham, Emily Schmitt, and McKenzie Snyder look to be the big three for Park City this fall, but the supporting crew shouldn't be far behind.
Xavier College Prep, Arizona - It was a disappointing meet for Xavier at last year's NXN-SW. Jessica Tonn has departed, but the cupboard is anything but bare at the home of the top girls' distance program in Arizona. Sarah Fakler will be a sophomore this fall and appears poised to take over the leadership of the team. Daylee Burr, Breanna Perrone, and Katie Penney should also fit into key roles this fall. Along with Park City, Xavier is nicely positioned to make a bid to take over leadership of the region this fall.
Looking around the states of the southwest region, we see several intriguing possibilities:
Nevada - South Tahoe had a disastrous state meet last November and didn't make the trip to Tempe. Although team front runner Kelsey Smith has departed by way of graduation, this could once again be a team to be reckoned with this fall.
New Mexico - Look for a much-improved Albuquerque Academy team this fall, led by Julia Foster. Foster is clearly one of the top female runners in the region and state track results say she has more support coming this fall than she had last fall--at least if everyone stays healthy. Los Alamos came on late in the season last fall, but did take a couple of big hits to graduation this spring. The talent seems fairly evenly distributed among New Mexico 5A girls programs. Eldorado, Rio Rancho, La Cueva, and possibly Cleveland are probably the best of the group but none are making big blips on the radar screen at the moment. Stay tuned, however, as things like this can change.
Arizona - Xavier dominated last fall and nothing yet has indicated a change in the order of things for this fall. Talent aplenty is there, but nobody yet, outside of Xavier, seems to have a deep enough collection of it to make a solid run at an NXN bid.
Utah - Pencil in Ogden as a contender because they have some good, young talent. Pencil in Davis as a contender not because their state track meet shows they have a flotilla of top runners coming back but because they may have the deepest program in the state and always find a way to be competitive. American Fork took some hits to graduation and came up a little short of expectations at last year's NXN-SW, but something good is going on at that school. Keep an eye on their season to see how things progress.
Colorado - Highlands Ranch is two girls short of being able to run away with this thing. If those two girls show up in the freshman class, watch out. Eleanor Fulton, last year's individual winner, tops the list of returnees for Highlands Ranch. Boulder is another very strong team entry, but opted out of attending last year's meet. Injury situations could be an issue for Boulder, though it's difficult to project how that situation might play out this fall. Pine Creek is another tantalizing possibility. And, don't dismiss Thompson Valley or Mountain Vista (last year's runaway winner of the open race).
Although Colorado took the two NXN slots last fall and dominated the top individual places, that could change if states like Arizona and Utah continue making the progress they made last fall. Early indications are that Colorado will once again be well-represented with teams at NXN-SW, but other states are seeing surges in performance that could make the race a good deal tighter than it has been the last two years.
Ranking the contenders will be an unenviable task this fall, especially the first few weeks of the season as things look to be mostly unsettled early.
Desert Dust Storm: Due to dessicated park conditions last fall, the start of the NXN-SW girls race raised a serious cloud of dust. Colorado Track XC file photo.