Peyton
Ok, so Peyton isn't exactly a Dark Horse, but they sort of are.
A year ago they finished third, which is on the side of that "not exactly" a Dark Horse, given that they did finish within the top three. But the "sort of" side of the first sentence comes because they're a team that hasn't placed inside the top three (excluding 2018) in a long, long time. And this year they look to have the potential to finally turn that statement around.
Joel Schluessler and Kelsey Montague are their top two returners from the 2019 state squad that finished third, and Mason Howard is actually their fastest returner with a 17:25 season best (Howard also went 16:59 and finished ninth at State as a sophomore). Collectively, all three have broken 18 minutes.
If all three can have a great day at State, Peyton could be make a run for the title. Add that their fourth-fastest runner, Tyler Halliday, has run 18:08.
Additionally, their 30-second 1-5 split will be tough to challenge.
Colorado Rocky Mountain School
A year ago they finished fifth at the state meet. They return their top four from that day, which means they've been there, done that.
That sort of experience could lead to a much higher finish this year.
Oliver Vaughan was their top finisher last year at the Big Dance, and he is their fastest returner with a 17:30 best. Jack Gottsegen joins him under 18 minutes, with a 17:50 best.
Like Peyton, what makes CRMS a challenger is the fact that they've got four strong runners. Bryn Peterson and Elliot Wickenheiser have cracked 18:30.