Keagan Vargo and his Chaparral teammates look like the top entry out of 5A Region 5. Photo by Alan Versaw.
All the usual disclaimers apply. Nothing that follows should be construed as a guarantee of a number of teams to state from any of the regions listed.
One one level, the answer to how many teams will advance to state from each region is easy: simply multiply the number of complete teams that finish your regional race by 0.4. Then round that number up if the decimal portion is .5 or higher and round down if the decimal portion is less than .5. See? Simple!
Or maybe not so simple. How in the world do you forecast how many complete teams will finish your regional race? Prior to the last runner crossing the finish line, you can't say with certainty how many complete teams will finish in your region.
BUT, you can look at the number of schools in each region that have fielded complete teams at some point in the season and get an educated guess at how many teams will qualify for state. And that's what the rest of this article is about.
The 5A version of this series took longer due to a realization on my part shortly into the effort that CHSAA had realigned the regions sometime between when the cross country bulletin came out and today. The good news? The new regions really do represent an improvement in terms of travel requirments. It still appears, however, the there were critical criteria other than geographical proximity used in creating the regional alignments.
5A Region 1
Girls (11) - Arapahoe, Smoky Hill, Columbine, Littleton, Denver East, Lincoln, Grand Junction, Arvada West, Eaglecrest, Thornton, Aurora Central
Boys (11) - Thornton, Arapahoe, Smoky Hill, Arvada West, Lincoln, Denver East, Columbine, Grand Junction, Littleton, Eaglecrest, Aurora Central
With Montbello not fielding a team this year, the region is down to no more than four boys and four girls teams to state. Those counts seem pretty stable since it would be highly improbable that the region drops to eight complete teams in either boys or girls. So, look for four teams to state in both.
5A Region 2
Girls (12) - Cherry Creek, Grandview, Dakota Ridge, Heritage, Regis, Chatfield, Cherokee Trail, Bear Creek, Standley Lake, GJ Central, Overland, Gateway
Boys (12) - Heritage, Dakota Ridge, Cherry Creek, Grandview, Bear Creek, Cherokee Trail, Chatfield, Regis, Overland, Standley Lake, GJ Central, Gateway
Five teams to state in both boys and girls as things stand now, but that's a precarious thing. A couple of these schools are on the margins of having complete teams. If even one complete team drops from either the boys or girls, the count of teams advancing to state drops to four.
5A Region 3
Girls (12) - Boulder, Monarch, ThunderRidge, Fairview, Ralston Valley, Greeley West, Lakewood, Fruita-Monument, Rangeview, George Washingon, Pomona, Hinkley
Boys (12) - Monarch, Fairview, Greeley West, Pomona, Boulder, Fruita-Monument, ThunderRidge, Lakewood, Rangeview, Ralston Valley, Hinkley, George Washington
See the comments about 5A Region 2--the same caveats apply in this region. Five and five as things stand now, but with a real possibility of dropping to four and four.
5A Region 4
Girls (13) - Fort Collins, Loveland, Fossil Ridge, Rocky Mountain, Legacy, Poudre, Horizon, Brighton, Northglenn, Mountain Range, Westminster, Adams City, Prairie View
Boys (13) - Fort Collins, Rocky Mountain, Fossil Ridge, Poudre, Loveland, Horizon, Brighton, Mountain Range, Prairie View, Westminster, Legacy, Northglenn, Adams City
Once again, a region with some margin. This region expects to send five boys and five girls teams and can expect to stay that way. Either gender could lose a complete team and still stay at five teams to state.
5A Region 5
Girls (14) - Liberty, Highlands Ranch, Mountain Vista, Pine Creek, Rock Canyon, Palmer, Chaparral, Doherty, Rampart, Castle View, Ponderosa, Fountain-Fort Carson, Douglas County, Legend
Boys (14) - Chaparral, Rock Canyon, Castle View, Mountain Vista, Highlands Ranch, Legend, Palmer, Ponderosa, Pine Creek, Fountain-Fort Carson, Doherty, Liberty, Douglas County, Rampart
This one is this year's monster region--not just in size, but in quality of teams as well. Six teams (both boys and girls) are slated to go to state at this time, but without any margin. There is no shortage of worthy teams in this region, so everyone is hoping the counts stay at 14. If the counts drop to 13 or 12, the number of slots to state reduces to five.
Looking at the state field as a whole, we should expect 23 to 25 teams each for both boys and girls. That would suggest state fields of roughly 180 - 190 runners each. As is the case with 4A, this means a pretty severe penalty for teams with softer entries at the #4 and #5 positions.
If you'd like to check out on your own how the teams in your region stack up, click on Rankings/High School Boys (or Girls) Teams. Then go to Advanced Parameters and select your region to filter the rankings. Disclaimer: The MileSplit rankings are based on performances at any point in the season. Thus, people who had an early-season mark may not necessarily still be running with a thier team. In most cases, they will still be with the team but injuries and dropouts are a part of sport.