They're back, and they're relentless. They're the Fort Collins girls. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Chances are, if you're reading this article you're from Colorado and wondering how the home state teams and individuals are going to do down at NXN-SW on Saturday. Or, you might be reading this from another state. In that case, you'll probably find enough of interest from your own state to keep you scrolling down, but figure this preview is mostly about Colorado teams.
Let's start with the ladies. I'll go on record here and now saying that Colorado is currently running the best high school girls cross country anywhere in the nation except California and New York. You're going to see that on the course this weekend and then again, I believe, for the next three weekends. Put a couple of the best Colorado teams in a meet anywhere in this nation and you have your hands full.
First, let's get who's not going out of the way. Arapahoe won't be there. Boulder won't be there. Cherry Creek won't be there. Eleanor Fulton won't be running for Highlands Ranch. Heather Bates won't be running for Pine Creek (Altitude).
Okay, so who will be there? Just about everyone else from the top ten teams in the state--and a little beyond.
Fort Collins is coming down in full force--and don't think for a second that they haven't mastered this game. Monarch (Louisville) has saved some extra room in their baggage for that chip on their shoulder from the state meet when one of their top runners collapsed 400 meters or so from the finish line. Cheyenne Mountain is coming down oozing confidence after demolishing the 4A state field. TCA (Titans XC) is anxious to run with a healthy Shelby Stableford and six more healthy bodies lined up behind her. ThunderRidge and Liberty (Colorado Springs Lancers) have something to say about how things went at state for them as well. And so on down the line.
Where's the strongest competition coming from? Probably Xavier College Prep (GTD X) in Arizona and the tandem of Ogden and Davis out of Utah. Xavier mowed down the competition in Arizona. If you've ever seen a combine moving through a wheat field, it went sort of like that--even, methodical, and thorough. Ogden and Davis took no prisoners in their tour of Utah this fall. They saw a lot of the same meets and the results were alarmingly consistent: Ogden first, Davis second. The field? Way back.
Eldorado (Albuquerque Eagles) and Los Alamos boast the top teams out of New Mexico. Palo Verde (Panthers) brings a Nevada state championship with them to the NXN-SW meet.
At this point, I could make some "safe" picks based on what those who make the rankings are saying. But I don't think this year's NXN-SW girls race will shake out along safe lines. If you aren't running sharp on Saturday, a very tall order of disappointment awaits you. I will say I expect Colorado teams to generally dominate the top 10, but that's hardly surprising given that almost half of the field of championship teams is coming from Colorado.
Eleanor Fulton passed on an opportunity to repeat as regional champion. We wish her well at Foot Locker MW. In her stead, individuals such as Laura Yarrow, Kristen Kientz, Erin Hooker, Kailie Hartman, Shelby Stableford, Hannah Everson, and Allie Parks figure to take a crack at advancing to NXN as individuals should their teams not make it. But it won't be easy. Figure on getting some solid resistance from Julia Foster (NM), Sarah Fakler (AZ), Rolonda Jumbo (AZ), Katie Gorczyca (NV), Shea Martinez (UT), and a very fast trio from Ogden (UT). If Summer Harper (UT) is among the list of registrants, figure her in as well.
And that would take us to the boys event...
Probably the only people more weary than the rest of us of hearing about American Fork and Albuquerque Academy (ABQ XC) are... American Fork and Albuquerque Academy!!! An entire summer and a full season of cross country is a long time to keep the troops healthy, keep the outlook fresh, and keep all contenders at arm's length. This Saturday will test how successful the two powerhouses have been at that task.
If you believe the ordering of the merged results from the state meet (and there are reasons to be skeptical), the Colorado teams lining up to take a crack at the twin juggernauts are Fort Collins, TCA, Cheyenne Mountain, Mountain Vista (Vista Nation, less Stephen Chipman), Monarch, Dakota Ridge, and Thompson Valley (Eagles XC).
I don't think I'll find many to argue with me, though, that Fort Collins has, by far, the best shot of the Colorado teams at making a legitimate run at AF and AA.
The great news, though, is that Colorado is actually sending down a contingent of teams this year. It was kind of lonely being one of two Colorado teams last fall. Memo to the rest of the region: the worm is turning 
. The days of Colorado being the whipping boy at the NXN-SW meet are coming to an end.
Among the other top contenders from the region's boys teams are Alhambra (Lions Den) from Arizona plus Davis and Pine View out of Utah.
Individually, Colorado is sending down Spencer Wenck, Mike Cernoia, David Garcia, Keifer Johnson, Tyler Nelson, Danny Carney, Josh Noriega, Austin Appel, Chris Zirkle, Andrew Goodman, and probably a couple more capable of contending for an individual slot to NXN.Top-tier individual competition abounds from outside our state. Think of Nick Hartle (NV), Bryan Jordan (NV), Caleb Rubalcaba (NM), Trevor Thompson (UT), Billy Orman (AZ), Luis Martinez (NM), and undoubtedly a few others whom I don't yet realize are registered.