Staring Down the NXN-SW Fields

Oct 23, 2011

Jeff Abbey leads the Fort Collins finishers at the Front Range Conference meet just over a week ago. Photo by Jeff McCoy.

The usefulness of conventional weekly review articles has pretty much passed by this point in the season. The best teams in the region are, by now, pretty well identified. This analysis will focus, therefore, on a state-by-state breakdown of the top teams in the region.

Nevada

Boys

To this point in the season, none of the Nevada boys' teams have displayed the depth necessary to make a deep run into the NXN-SW field. Centennial and Galena appear to be the best teams--and could show up at NXN-SW--but both would be longshots to make the top ten.

Girls

Carson is not only the best team in Nevada but, realistically, the only team in Nevada with the kind of presence at positions 4 and 5 to have an impact at NXN-SW. April Shonnard and Alex Drozdoff give Carson some punch up front and there is some depth with this squad. It's cause for concern if Carson doesn't clean up at the Nevada state meet.

Utah

The state-sanctioned season is done in Utah. The coaches in Utah have long been aware of the problems associated with the long break between their state meet and the various post-season meet options. To help bridge teams over, they've created a couple of interim races. Whether those races help or hinder probably depends much on the art of coaching that takes place at each school over the period between the big meets.

Boys

It's not that any of us didn't know in advance, but Davis and American Fork have no peers in Utah. They do, however, make for a very nice matchup between themselves. It's a shame only one of these teams could go home with a state championship trophy. This year, that honor went to American Fork, and it certainly wasn't on account of anything less than a stellar performance by Davis. These are two solid teams without signficant weaknesses anywhere in their scoring lineups.

Mountain View came out third in merged scoring from the Utah state meet and probably ranks as the next best team in Utah. We expect to see them in Arizona next month and very possibly as a top ten team, though it is signficant that the Bruins' top runner posted a time slower than either of the fifth runners from Davis or American Fork. Such is the order of separation American Fork and Davis have achieved over the rest of the Utah teams. Another way of looking at the domination of AF and Davis is that there were 14 boys who broke 16:00 on the 3-mile Utah state meet course. Of those 14, eight were from American Fork or Davis. No other school had more than one.

Girls

Davis had the best state meet of any of the Utah girls programs. It's been a tough year for Ogden, certainly one not matching the preseason expectations laid upon the Tigers. Skyline showed a flash of brilliance at Bob Firman, but wasn't able to reprise it at the Utah state meet. Each of the top Utah girls' teams has some reason for concern at the #5 scoring position. In a region with no mercy on teams that don't go very strong at least five deep, on Davis had a 5th runner under 20:00 at the state meet. Park City came close, but Park City does not have nearly the kind of front-end strength that Davis has.

Right now, it looks like a close pick between Mountain View and Skyline as the #2 girls team in Utah. We've seen Mountain View a lot at NXN-SW, but Skyline has yet to make the trip.

New Mexico

Boys

Probably no state and gender in the southwest region as seen as much turmoil and turnover in the last two weeks among the top teams as the New Mexico boys.

Two weeks ago, Albuquerque Academy looked to be building their way into a solid #1 from the state of New Mexico. Two solid thumpings at the hands of Cleveland have changed all that, however. Whatever problems Cleveland was having at the #4 and #5 positions earlier this season have been rectified and forgotten. And Luis Martinez shows no signs of slowing down. In a meet matching many of New Mexico's top programs, Cleveland shoved all of their top six into the top 11 places at the Los Alamos Hilltopper Invitational this weekend.

Host Los Alamos took over second place at their meet, relegating the Chargers of Albuquerque Academy to third. This reverses their order of finish from the AA Invitational a few weeks back and doubtlessly raises some concerns for AA's prospects.

Unless small-school power Laguna Acoma figures into the mix, these appear to be the top three boys teams in New Mexico. Los Alamos and Albuquerque Academy have no more head-to-head dates left with the 5A schools in New Mexico as regionals and state are all that remains of the season. If Cleveland wins out in 5A, as it appears they will, they figure as the #1 seed out of New Mexico. Rio Rancho and La Cueva are the best of the remaining 5A teams, but likely have no more answers to the strength of Cleveland than AA and LA had.

Girls

Eldorado has twice taken down Los Alamos by narrow margins in recent weeks. And only Los Alamos has been close. Cleveland, Volcano Vista, and St. Pius X have been hovering on the outskirts of running with these teams but are short of the depth necessary to bridge the gap at this point.

At this point in the season, Eldorado looks like the best team in the state, with Los Alamos a not-too-distant second. Both figure to make the trip to NXN-SW.

Colorado

It's tough to read results from regional qualifying week in Colorado with great clarity. Doubtless, many teams that figure to advance to state use the opportunity to let off the gas a little and gives their legs a bit of a break heading into the state meet.

Boys

Except for a lead bike snafu, Monarch just might have toppled Fairview for the 5A Region 3 title. Whether Monarch or Fairview is the better team is a question not a few people are asking here in Colorado. We'll wait for state to make a judgment on this ordering, but at least it's a question worth asking. Both are solid teams, and Monarch definitely seems to be enjoying an extra bounce in their stride (in a good sort of way, not a technical sort of way) with the return of Michael Reese. Neither are likely as strong as Fort Collins, but we could be talking about the second best team in the state.

Fort Collins laid waste to their regional (5A Region 4) with what had the appearance of being a measured effort. Arapahoe won 5A Region 1 with relative ease and may be sneaking into a place of serious contention as the state meet approaches. Mountain Vista toppled the other teams in their 5A Region 5 handily. Broomfield took down Thompson Valley again in 4A Region 2.

There are other strong teams in Colorado, and probably several that will make the trip to Arizona, but these appear to be the big guns for now.

Girls

Showdown ahead.

With Devan Foster's transfer rule period of ineligibility having run its course, Arapahoe appears to be hitting on all cylinders. The Warriors join the 5A elite with a wrecking job on 5A Region 1. Fort Collins cruised through 5A Region 4 a week after posting their best effort of the season in the Front Range Conference meet. The Lambkins are back, folks. Mountain Vista destroyed any resistance in 5A Region 5. Monarch was most dominating of all in 5A Region 3. Cherry Creek crushed 5A Region 2. Only one of these teams, at best, can with the state meet (though nobody has yet forwarded any suggestions as to who might win the state meet if one of these five teams doesn't). That means there could be some tears waiting to be shed next weekend; there is no shortage of teams with high hopes going into this one.

The Classical Academy posted a perfect score at 3A Region 2 while resting one of their top girls.

Figure that most, if not all, of these teams are headed to Arizona in four weeks.

Arizona

Boys

Desert Vista was looking like the toast of the town until some wheels came off at the Doug Conley meet last weekend. Though down at least one runner, DV has some remassing of the forces to do if they are to make a mark as a regional contender on November 19. Highland and Mesa Mountain View had very nice meets at Doug Conley and now appear to be leading the pack of Arizona teams, though nobody has quite forgotten about Chinle yet. When last spotted, Chinle was blowing apart the Holbrook Invitational meet.

Girls

Despite what may not have been a top performance from each of their seven varsity runners, Xavier College Prep finished third in the Sweepstakes race at Mt. SAC this weekend. With the considerations of travel and the overall closeness of the score, you could try to make a case that Xavier just might have been the #2 team in the Sweeps race on a different day (Saugus, however, was missing from the Sweepstakes race--though they ran in another division). That's a big improvement over Xavier's finish there the last two years and may help to position the SW well for the possibility of an at-large bid. Desert Vista's girls finished 12th in the Sweeps race, a nice accomplishment in its own right.

Closer to home, Highland edged out Desert Vista for second (to Xavier's B team) at the Doug Conley Invite last weekend. Highland and Desert Vista look to be dueling for the #2 girls ranking in Arizona, and both should be headed to Toka Sticks on November 19.

And, speaking of Toka Sticks, the schedule for the NXN-SW weekend has just been released. Here are the important dates, times, and places:

NXN-SW Weekend Schedule

Friday November 18

3:30 – 7:30 pm Packet Pick Up

3:30 – 4:55 pm Course Walk Thru (Only at this time)

3:30 – 7:30 pm NXN Apparel Sale, East Bay

5:00 – 5:20 pm Press Conference

5:25 – 6:15 pm T Shirt Exchange (Bring your shirts)

6:30 – 8:00 pm Pasta Dinner $10.00, Elite Athlete Talk (Legado Hotel)

Saturday November 20

6:30 - 7:30 am Walk Thru, Late Registration

6:30 - 7:30 am     Final Registration Citizens Race
     8:00 am     Citizens 5K Race
     8:30 am     Girls Open Race