It's been a season of ever-increasing expectations for Chloe Cassens and her Coronado teammates. This week, they try to advance to state. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Concluding with this piece, we take a quick look at each of the regionals around the state. Each regional summary has a link to virtual meets for the region. By clicking on the virtual meet link, you are taken to a page where you can view to virtual meet of the season best times for all runners in the region. A nice feature of these virtual meets is that you can hover your mouse over any athletes you believe won't be running in the regional, click on the X that appears at the left end of the line, and remove that runner from the virtual meet. Note that virtual meets require Insider status to view.
5A Region 1
Perhaps the most interesting thing about this meet is the pending showdown between Arapahoe and Arvada West. They haven't meet this season. You have to call Arapahoe the favorite, but Arvada West has plenty enough firepower to create some problems; they are a much better team than most folks are giving them credit for. These two schools should account for two of the five boys qualifying positions. Legend, Eaglecrest, and Dakota Ridge will try to speak for the other three, but Smoky Hill and Thornton will be aiming to keep their seasons alive as well.
This region lacks a 5A girls superpower, but Arapahoe, Arvada West, Smoky Hill, and Dakota Ridge should represent the region well and advance to state. Eaglecrest, Chatfield, Columbine, and Denver East figure to be clamoring for the final qualifying spot. That's a lot of teams to try to be paying attention to at the finish line.
5A Region 2
It was an interesting tussle between Centennial League powers Cherry Creek, Cherokee Trail, and Grandview last week. They get to do it all over again this week, only this time without Arapahoe to worry about. That should account for the region's top three places. Heritage, Grand Junction, and Fruita Monument figure to be most in contention for the remaining two slots.
The same top three teams figure on the girls side as on the boys. Creek, Cherokee Trail, and Grandview appear to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the region. This time the three looking to fill two remaining spots most likely come down to Grand Junction, Heritage, and Regis Jesuit.
It's impossible to say this with absolute certainty, but this region doesn't look to be ripe for any big surprises.
5A Region 3
This is traditionally a tough region, and it should be again this year. Boulder's hot streak of late gives them regional favorite status, but Monarch, Fairview, and ThunderRidge also come in in strong positions. The fifth, and final spot, appears to be more of a toss-up between Greeley West, Legacy, and Pomona. Pomona is the top team of these three through three runners, so much for the Panthers comes down to 4 and 5.
Monarch and Fairview are the top girls teams, with Boulder not far behind. Each of these three are strong candidates to advance to state. And, honestly, ThunderRidge looks to be in a strong position as well. If we're right so far, that leaves one spot to come down between Greeley West, Ralston Valley, and Lakewood. Right now, both Greeley West and Ralston Valley have been seeing some nice recent success, which could bode well for them.
5A Region 4
Right now, this is a region you don't especially want to be assigned to. And, it's been that way a few years running.
The best projection I can give you for the boys has the four Fort Collins schools and Broomfield advancing to state. Everything about the season to date points toward that conclusion. Loveland and Brighton get to run their hearts out on the hope of stealing a berth.
On the girls side, Broomfield comes in as a substantial favorite. They've earned that, all of it. Fossil Ridge, Rocky Mountain, and Fort Collins look like the next tier. Fort Collins didn't have a great league meet outing, but expect them to be closer to full strength for regional qualifying. Horizon and Loveland are very much in the hunt. That adds up to six teams, but only five move on. That's a lot of teams knowing the need to come out with a strong showing. It seems unlikely, though certainly not impossible, that any of the other teams in the region pulls off an upset.
5A Region 5
This region only gets stronger with each new year.
Mountain Vista is as close to a lock to advance here as anyone ever could be. Other strong entries on the boys side include Rampart and Rock Canyon. Chaparral's margin over the rest of the region is probably not as large as the virtual meet scoring would suggest. In addition to Chap, look for Coronado and Douglas County to make strong bids for the last two positions to advance to state.
Mountain Vista also tops the list of girls potentials to state. Coronado and Pine Creek have looked strong of late and probably merit their 2 and 3 standing for the time being, but nobody at either school should be overlooking Rock Canyon, Highlands Ranch, or Castle View. So, once again, it looks like six strong contenders for five positions, leaving much at stake for the actual race.