The idea of this article is to take a look at how a virtual meet of returning athletes from the 2015 season compares with the state meet results of the 2016 season.
All sorts of things factor into this. This is about improvement, but it's not only about improvement. Besides improvement, things that can impact a team's standing from one year to the next are move-ins, move-outs, injuries, incoming freshmen (a bigger factor with girls than with boys), and athletes who decide not to come out the next year.
Still, it's interesting to take a look at how things shift from one year to the next. The first table you see below lists the top 20 1A Girls teams at the end of 2015 based on a virtual meet of top marks. Note that this virtual meet only scores eight deep and does not include relays. As such it's not going to provide a perfect comparison to the 2016 state meet results, but it does provide a window:
Girls - Team Rankings - 14 Events Scored
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1) Heritage Christian Acade 112 2) Sangre de Cristo High Sc 48
3) Idalia High School 31 4) Baca County 30
5) Shining Mountain Waldorf 29 6) Otis High School 28
7) Prairie High School 27 8) Granada High School 27
9) Wiley High School 25 10) Kim High School 21
11) Briggsdale High School 20 12) Arickaree High School 19
13) Eads High School 17 14) Bethune High School 14
15) Plateau Valley High Scho 13 16) Genoa-Hugo High School 12
17) Stratton/Liberty High Sc 10 18) Pikes Peak Christian 9
19) Weldon Valley High Schoo 6 20) Kit Carson High School 5
Women - 1A - Team Rankings - 19 Events Scored
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1) Heritage Christian 121 2) Springfield 69.50
3) Baca County 69 4) Sangre de Cristo 53
5) Shining Mtn. Waldorf 52 6) Wiley 43
6) Eads 43 8) Kim 40
9) Lake City Community 37 10) Fleming 35
11) Briggsdale 33.50 12) Granada 29
12) DeBeque 29 12) Plateau Valley 29
15) Otis 28 16) Holly 27.50
17) Genoa-Hugo 21 18) Arickaree 18
19) La Veta 16 20) Idalia 12
Well, let's face it. We had a pretty clear idea what Heritage Christian Academy was capable of laying down--and they did more or less exactly what was expected of them.
But, that monster second-place finish from Springfield? Where did that come from? A virtual meet of performances of returning runners from the 2015 season had Springfield scoring all of four points. Yet, the Longhorns managed to put up 69.5 points at state, earning them the second-place trophy. And, it was not even as if Springfield did it with a raft of incoming freshmen. As best as I can tell, Sprinfield had only two freshmen who scored at state--Audrey Rau and Zoe Alberti. And only Rau scored in an individual event.
Springfield appears to be to quintessential example of a "most improved" team.
Complete Scoring of a 1A Girls Virtual Meet of Returning Runners from May, 2015