I've been fascinated by the concept of virtual meets and by the question of how good of a predictor they are. So, in this series, I'm going to take a preseason virtual meet for each of the eight classifications and genders from last year and compare it with the state meet results from last year.
Each time, we'll examine how well the preseason virtual meet predicted the outcome of the state meet, and try to uncover any obvious reasons about why the matching between the two was less than perfect.
After I've done that for all eight classifications and genders, I'll put together a summary piece that seeks to evaluate with some precision how effective preseason virtual meets are as a predictor of state meet results.
And, in the meanwhile, if you'd like to try out some virtual meets on your own, here is a quick little tutorial on doing virtual meets. Note that you must be a MileSplit Pro member to do virtual meets on the site.
Tutorial on Virtual Meets via XC Team Scores
3A Boys 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
We begin with 3A Boys from 2015. Here is what the preseason virtual meet team scoring showed for the top dozen teams:
| 1 | Alamosa High School (CO) | 110 | ||
| 1) Isaiah DeLaCerda | 16:04.70 | 4 | ||
| 2) Caleb Berlinger | 17:04.80 | 18 | ||
| 3) Caleb Palmer | 17:07.11 | 19 | ||
| 4) Miguel Baltazar | 17:08.31 | 20 | ||
| 5) Oscar Martinez | 17:33.86 | 49 | ||
| Average Time: 16:59.76 Total Time: 1:24:58.78 1-5 Split: 1:29.16 | ||||
| 6) Casey McDaniel | 17:43.20 | 61 | ||
| 7) Richard Sais | 18:12.00 | 84 | ||
| 2 | Frontier Academy (CO) | 117 | ||
| 1) Josiah Davis | 16:26.00 | 5 | ||
| 2) Cody Jones | 16:51.00 | 12 | ||
| 3) Isaiah Remington | 17:04.00 | 16 | ||
| 4) Dhalton Akey | 17:10.00 | 22 | ||
| 5) Dillan Webb | 17:44.00 | 62 | ||
| Average Time: 17:03.00 Total Time: 1:25:15.00 1-5 Split: 1:18.00 | ||||
| 6) Austen Street | 17:59.00 | 71 | ||
| 7) Chukwuzulum Nwizu | 17:59.00 | 72 | ||
| 3 | Lamar High School (CO) | 139 | ||
| 1) Jacob Rogers | 16:03.40 | 3 | ||
| 2) Kaleb Crum | 16:47.00 | 10 | ||
| 3) Blake Davis | 17:02.00 | 15 | ||
| 4) Cole Hiigel | 17:37.70 | 55 | ||
| 5) Matthew Hartshorn | 17:38.20 | 56 | ||
| Average Time: 17:01.66 Total Time: 1:25:08.30 1-5 Split: 1:34.80 | ||||
| 6) Wyatt Lehr | 19:14.00 | 137 | ||
| 7) Derek Oxley | 19:48.00 | 164 | ||
| 4 | Vanguard School, The (CO) | 143 | ||
| 1) Miles Hatton | 16:48.00 | 11 | ||
| 2) Harley Morgan | 16:54.00 | 13 | ||
| 3) Slade Kelling | 17:14.50 | 25 | ||
| 4) Andrew Briar | 17:30.70 | 46 | ||
| 5) Nick Lovato | 17:31.00 | 48 | ||
| Average Time: 17:11.64 Total Time: 1:25:58.20 1-5 Split: 43.00 | ||||
| 6) Alexander Eccles | 17:45.10 | 63 | ||
| 7) Tyler Gard | 18:14.00 | 86 | ||
| 5 | Gunnison High School (CO) | 200 | ||
| 1) Cooper Wiens | 16:42.03 | 8 | ||
| 2) Branden Huisman-Nevin | 17:17.52 | 28 | ||
| 3) DeAndre Adamich | 17:17.90 | 29 | ||
| 4) Caleb Mueller | 17:53.47 | 66 | ||
| 5) Jon Crossley | 17:57.36 | 69 | ||
| Average Time: 17:25.66 Total Time: 1:27:08.28 1-5 Split: 1:15.33 | ||||
| 6) Will Powell | 18:11.10 | 83 | ||
| 7) Alonso Martinez | 18:26.70 | 93 | ||
| 6 | Salida High School (CO) | 213 | ||
| 1) Taylor Stack | 15:31.00 | 2 | ||
| 2) Seth Minor | 17:14.90 | 26 | ||
| 3) Russell Orris | 17:20.80 | 34 | ||
| 4) Morgan Fitzgerald | 17:39.00 | 57 | ||
| 5) Ian Olson | 18:28.20 | 94 | ||
| Average Time: 17:14.78 Total Time: 1:26:13.90 1-5 Split: 2:57.20 | ||||
| 6) Ike Timko | 19:03.00 | 129 | ||
| 7) Jesse Orris | 20:48.00 | 195 | ||
| 7 | Ridge View Academy (CO) | 256 | ||
| 1) David Lozano | 17:20.40 | 33 | ||
| 2) Nicholas Damien | 17:24.00 | 38 | ||
| 3) Joshua Garcia | 17:24.40 | 39 | ||
| 4) Amanuel Abebe | 17:42.00 | 59 | ||
| 5) Adrian Abachiche | 18:17.00 | 87 | ||
| Average Time: 17:37.56 Total Time: 1:28:07.80 1-5 Split: 56.60 | ||||
| 6) David Sansoni | 19:58.60 | 171 | ||
| 7) Carlos Sanders | 19:59.00 | 173 | ||
| 8 | Jefferson Academy (CO) | 313 | ||
| 1) Josiah Raso-Valdez | 17:11.00 | 23 | ||
| 2) Ryan Lehmuth | 17:23.00 | 37 | ||
| 3) Christian Van Cleave | 17:34.00 | 51 | ||
| 4) Nathan Moore | 18:11.00 | 82 | ||
| 5) Brendan Lynch | 18:57.00 | 120 | ||
| Average Time: 17:51.20 Total Time: 1:29:16.00 1-5 Split: 1:46.00 | ||||
| 6) Zeke Trujillo | 19:00.00 | 124 | ||
| 7) Damian Brown | 19:32.00 | 149 | ||
| 9 | SkyView Academy (CO) | 324 | ||
| 1) Ben Butler | 15:19.10 | 1 | ||
| 2) Jimmy Scavuzzo | 17:25.00 | 41 | ||
| 3) Joseph Pippin | 17:31.00 | 47 | ||
| 4) Ryan Butler | 18:34.00 | 100 | ||
| 5) Thomas Fredrickson | 19:08.00 | 135 | ||
| Average Time: 17:35.42 Total Time: 1:27:57.10 1-5 Split: 3:48.90 | ||||
| 6) McKinley Boots | 19:17.50 | 139 | ||
| 7) Thor Hopkins | 19:33.00 | 150 | ||
| 10 | Colorado Academy (CO) | 333 | ||
| 1) Jared Schwartz | 17:18.00 | 31 | ||
| 2) Brady Anderson | 17:34.00 | 50 | ||
| 3) Eric Masinter | 17:56.00 | 68 | ||
| 4) Arthur Wright | 18:05.00 | 76 | ||
| 5) Greg Cain | 18:41.00 | 108 | ||
| Average Time: 17:54.80 Total Time: 1:29:34.00 1-5 Split: 1:23.00 | ||||
| 6) Noah Mushkin | 18:42.00 | 109 | ||
| 7) Evan Rumsfeld | 19:40.00 | 156 | ||
| 11 | Moffat County High School (CO) | 362 | ||
| 1) Ashley Suits | 17:15.50 | 27 | ||
| 2) Riley Allen | 17:25.09 | 42 | ||
| 3) Isiac Roop | 18:28.87 | 95 | ||
| 4) Andrew Keiss | 18:31.48 | 97 | ||
| 5) Brandon Beason | 18:36.42 | 101 | ||
| Average Time: 18:03.47 Total Time: 1:30:17.36 1-5 Split: 1:20.92 | ||||
| 6) Steven Walls | 18:38.00 | 102 | ||
| 7) Isaac Chacon | 19:02.00 | 127 | ||
| 12 | Estes Park High School (CO) | 371 | ||
| 1) Dylan Zurfluh | 17:04.00 | 17 | ||
| 2) Rhett Dacaug | 17:55.00 | 67 | ||
| 3) Seth Greer | 18:02.00 | 74 | ||
| 4) Cobi Lasota | 18:17.00 | 88 | ||
| 5) Eric Todd | 19:00.00 | 125 | ||
| Average Time: 18:03.60 Total Time: 1:30:18.00 1-5 Split: 1:56.00 | ||||
| 6) Mason Ginter | 19:29.00 | 146 | ||
| 7) Noah Stein | 19:41.40 | 157 | ||
And, this is the team scoring at state for the top dozen teams:
| TEAM SCORES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLACE | TEAM | POINTS | SCORERS | TIMES | ||
| 1 | Alamosa High School | 55 | 3+6+10+14+22 (23+32) | 1:10 1-5 Split | 16:59 Avg | ||
| 2 | Frontier Academy | 118 | 5+8+20+31+54 (67+85) | 1:27 1-5 Split | 17:28 Avg | ||
| 3 | Lamar High School | 121 | 4+16+19+30+52 (130+139) | 1:36 1-5 Split | 17:28 Avg | ||
| 4 | SkyView Academy | 136 | 1+15+29+33+58 (71+83) | 2:33 1-5 Split | 17:23 Avg | ||
| 5 | Gunnison High School | 145 | 7+21+27+40+50 (57+60) | 1:17 1-5 Split | 17:39 Avg | ||
| 6 | Salida High School | 170 | 2+35+38+47+48 (62+65) | 1:56 1-5 Split | 17:41 Avg | ||
| 7 | Vanguard School, The | 188 | 12+24+44+49+59 (80+103) | 1:20 1-5 Split | 17:53 Avg | ||
| 8 | Moffat County High School | 246 | 39+41+42+61+63 (68+99) | 0:38 1-5 Split | 18:13 Avg | ||
| 9 | Peak to Peak Charter School | 271 | 11+36+66+72+86 (98+133) | 1:58 1-5 Split | 18:17 Avg | ||
| 10 | Estes Park High School | 284 | 17+53+55+78+81 (96+97) | 1:37 1-5 Split | 18:23 Avg | ||
| 11 | Jefferson Academy | 331 | 25+37+74+82+113 (114+115) | 2:21 1-5 Split | 18:39 Avg | ||
| 12 | Platte Canyon High School | 367 | 28+45+77+90+127 (128+129) | 3:07 1-5 Split | 18:57 Avg | ||
Preliminary Assessment:
Actually, this particular preseason virtual meet proved to be an uncanny predictor of state finish. All three of the top team places were projected correctly, and five of the top six team places were projected precisely correct. That is exceptional accuracy for any projection months ahead of the fact.
In all, the preseason virtual meet correctly selected 10 of the ultimate top 12 finishers as top 12 finishers before the season started. And arguably, Ridge View Academy is going to be a wild card every year due to the discontinuity of students at the school from year to year. So, if we dismiss the RVA projection, you could say the accuracy shown by the preseason projection was even better than the 10 of 12 success rate we've already noted.
If all that makes you kind of interested in seeing a preseason virtual meet team scoring for 3A boys this year, here is what you're looking for: