Helen Gover was half of a freshman tandem at Centaurus last fall that gave the Warriors a boost well beyond what the preseason virtual meet projected. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Now just past the midway point, we take another look at how well last year's preseason virtual meets predicted the actual order of finish at the state meet. This time, it's the 4A Girls turn under the microscope.
4A Girls 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
The preseason top 12, according to the virtual meet of returning runners, looked like this:
| # | Team | Score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Air Academy High School | 164 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 57 | 84 | - | - |
| 2 | Battle Mountain High School | 168 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 51 | 55 | - | - |
| 3 | Niwot High School | 171 | 7 | 18 | 43 | 50 | 53 | - | - |
| 4 | Wheat Ridge High School | 211 | 28 | 29 | 39 | 54 | 61 | - | - |
| 5 | Classical Academy, The | 274 | 31 | 32 | 38 | 63 | 110 | - | - |
| 6 | Evergreen High School | 278 | 23 | 41 | 49 | 74 | 91 | - | - |
| 7 | Cheyenne Mountain High School | 290 | 9 | 24 | 46 | 105 | 106 | - | - |
| 8 | Palmer Ridge High School | 310 | 14 | 36 | 76 | 89 | 95 | - | - |
| 9 | Silver Creek High School | 352 | 11 | 71 | 78 | 83 | 109 | - | - |
| 10 | Steamboat Springs High School | 359 | 15 | 35 | 68 | 70 | 171 | - | - |
| 11 | Mountain View High School | 374 | 5 | 21 | 90 | 118 | 140 | - | - |
| 12 | Thompson Valley High School | 378 | 12 | 30 | 98 | 104 | 134 | - | - |
And, here is how they actually finished, through 12 teams, at state:
| TEAM SCORES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLACE | TEAM | POINTS | SCORERS | TIMES | ||
| 1 | Air Academy High School | 60 | 1+5+10+14+30 (48+63) | 2:56 1-5 Split | 19:23 Avg | ||
| 2 | Battle Mountain High School | 77 | 8+12+17+18+22 (67+80) | 0:48 1-5 Split | 19:54 Avg | ||
| 3 | Thompson Valley High School | 162 | 13+21+33+40+55 (93+139) | 1:16 1-5 Split | 20:29 Avg | ||
| 4 | Palmer Ridge High School | 176 | 9+29+34+36+68 (96+124) | 1:50 1-5 Split | 20:33 Avg | ||
| 5 | Centaurus High School | 186 | 23+24+39+47+53 (94+107) | 0:47 1-5 Split | 20:40 Avg | ||
| 6 | Wheat Ridge High School | 236 | 27+28+57+60+64 (72+113) | 0:53 1-5 Split | 20:55 Avg | ||
| 7 | Classical Academy, The | 239 | 4+46+52+61+76 (114+150) | 2:25 1-5 Split | 20:46 Avg | ||
| 8 | Mountain View High School | 267 | 6+42+45+85+89 (97+136) | 2:27 1-5 Split | 20:54 Avg | ||
| 9 | Niwot High School | 281 | 19+32+62+81+87 (100+121) | 1:35 1-5 Split | 21:02 Avg | ||
| 10 | Evergreen High School | 287 | 11+16+77+82+101 (106+142) | 2:15 1-5 Split | 20:57 Avg | ||
| 11 | Cheyenne Mountain High School | 304 | 7+20+54+108+115 (119+162) | 2:55 1-5 Split | 21:01 Avg | ||
| 12 | Elizabeth High School | 316 | 35+49+73+75+84 (127+133) | 0:59 1-5 Split | 21:15 Avg | ||
Preliminary Analysis
Amazingly, even without knowing about the freshman class Air Academy was bringing in, the 4A Girls preseason virtual meet had the top two teams pegged correctly. Thompson Valley and Centaurus had a nice upticks over their projections (both with nice freshman class assists) and Niwot a bit of a tumble, but most teams fell in about where the preseason virtual meet indicated they would. Elizabeth showed up in the top 12 with a state meet team that was six deep in freshmen.
The virtual meet went 10 for 12 in picking out the eventual top 12. Not at all a bad showing.
So, on balance, this is the most prescient of the three girls preseason virtual meets we've looked at to date. At this point, things are looking pretty good for virtual meets, but we have three more yet to review.