Cassie Unruh and SkyView Academy outperformed their preseason projection by a bundle, even without the benefit of an ultra-competitive freshman class. Photo by Alan Versaw.
After this one, two more articles to go. Then we'll draw some more extensive conclusions about just how accurate virtual meets are at predicting the top state finishers.
For now, though, we pull up the train for a stop at 3A Girls.
3A Girls 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
Here is what the preseason virtual meet suggested about the assembled 3A Girls teams...
| # | Team | Score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kent Denver School | 79 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 24 | 31 | - | - |
| 2 | Salida High School | 85 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 22 | 44 | - | - |
| 3 | Moffat County High School | 165 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 58 | 63 | - | - |
| 4 | Colorado Academy | 184 | 4 | 21 | 50 | 53 | 56 | - | - |
| 5 | Pagosa Springs High School | 190 | 16 | 35 | 37 | 43 | 59 | - | - |
| 6 | Frontier Academy | 195 | 11 | 23 | 32 | 57 | 72 | - | - |
| 7 | Estes Park High School | 298 | 1 | 51 | 67 | 89 | 90 | - | - |
| 8 | Alamosa High School | 302 | 18 | 39 | 73 | 81 | 91 | - | - |
| 9 | Aspen High School | 320 | 47 | 52 | 68 | 69 | 84 | - | - |
| 10 | Peak to Peak Charter School | 320 | 8 | 25 | 66 | 77 | 144 | - | - |
| 11 | Eaton High School | 354 | 34 | 55 | 83 | 88 | 94 | - | - |
| 12 | SkyView Academy | 381 | 26 | 29 | 40 | 103 | 183 | - | - |
And, here is what the eventual top 12 looked like from state:
| TEAM SCORES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLACE | TEAM | POINTS | SCORERS | TIMES | ||
| 1 | Salida High School | 50 | 6+7+8+10+19 (29+48) | 0:58 1-5 Split | 20:10 Avg | ||
| 2 | Peak to Peak Charter School | 56 | 1+2+14+17+22 (26+44) | 2:19 1-5 Split | 19:59 Avg | ||
| 3 | Kent Denver School | 115 | 9+11+27+31+37 (73+88) | 1:33 1-5 Split | 20:52 Avg | ||
| 4 | Alamosa High School | 135 | 13+20+28+36+38 (70) | 1:15 1-5 Split | 21:09 Avg | ||
| 5 | Colorado Academy | 147 | 4+18+23+46+56 (77+98) | 2:42 1-5 Split | 21:14 Avg | ||
| 6 | SkyView Academy | 175 | 5+30+34+49+57 (78+110) | 2:34 1-5 Split | 21:29 Avg | ||
| 7 | Moffat County High School | 179 | 12+24+40+42+61 (125) | 2:16 1-5 Split | 21:32 Avg | ||
| 8 | Eaton High School | 250 | 15+35+52+53+95 (115) | 2:50 1-5 Split | 22:01 Avg | ||
| 9 | Pagosa Springs High School | 270 | 33+39+50+68+80 (96+114) | 1:31 1-5 Split | 22:13 Avg | ||
| 10 | Frontier Academy | 296 | 25+58+65+67+81 (106+120) | 1:47 1-5 Split | 22:25 Avg | ||
| 11 | Basalt High School | 333 | 32+71+72+76+82 (121+123) | 1:36 1-5 Split | 22:35 Avg | ||
| 12 | St. Mary's Academy | 344 | 21+59+75+90+99 (101+113) | 2:40 1-5 Split | 22:40 Avg | ||
Preliminary Evaluation
Both Salida and Kent Denver finished very close to where they were supposed to have finished. Peak to Peak was the big change on the scene. Recall, though, that the Pumas brought in the best freshman class 3A has ever seen (and, yes, that includes a few strong TCA classes). There's no way a virtual meet of times from the previous season will ever account for roster additions of Quinn McConnell, Anna Shults, and Tiana Bradfield.
Overall the 3A rankings seem more fluid between preseason virtual meet and state meet than other classifications we've looked at this far. Yet, still, the preseason virtual meet correctly identified 10 of the top 12 teams at the end of the season.
We'll call 3A Girls very good on the forest but a little fuzzy on the trees.