Do Trends Exist in the Last 17 Years of 3A Boys Results?

Alan Versaw


Although Mason Finley figured heavily in a short-term spike of shot put performances for 3A boys, no lasting trend emerged from his tenure as the top 3A thrower. 

I mentioned earlier this week that I'd be looking at state meet data from 2000 forward to determine if any there are any worthwhile trends to be noted in the results.

As a refresher, I am looking at 400, 1600, 300H, 4x100, 4x800, High Jump, Pole Vault, and Shot Put results over that period of time. For some reason, the 2000 2A/3A state meet results don't include 3A Boys high jump, so those data are missing. Otherwise, I have a complete set of results over those years.

I chose to take an average of the top six marks in each of the above events over each year of that span. I took top six so I didn't have to figure out what to do about scratches and DQs in finals that didn't leave me with at least eight marks for the event each year. Here is what the graphs of those averages over time look like:



The average 400 meter times have gone from low to high to low again, but without any clear overall trend. 2002 and 2003 were exceptional years.


The spike at 2008 is likely attributable to a very tactical race that year that had the top finishers starting at about 4:35. Otherwise, there is no discernible trend unless there's a hint of a trend in the Bret Schoolmeester era and the most recent years being markedly lower.



No discernible trend for the 300 hurdles. A nice trend from 2010 through 2014 that might have pointed toward something reversed itself in the last two year.



The 4x100 was trending faster until things have slowed down a bit again in the last three years. But, the event is still faster than almost every year from 2000 through 2009.


Other than a set of markedly slower times in 2010, there is nothing that stands out in this graph.



High jump average heights have been volatile--even from year to year--but no trend emerges (vertical axis is in inches).



Again, a fair amount of volatility in pole vault results, but nothing that would indicate an overall trend (vertical axis is in inches). 2006 was an exceptional year for the 3A Boys pole vault.



The Mason Finley years show a substantial spike in the averages that has mostly to do with the scope of his throws. Otherwise, there is nothing indicative of a trend here (vertical axis is in inches).

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So, for those of you--like me--were more expecting to see trends in the top 3A boys performances. With the possible exception of the 4x100, there simply are not any trends worth noting in 3A boys performances over the last 17 state meets. To be sure, there have been ups and downs in averages of the top six performances, but no sustained trends over time. 

The quality of the 3A Boys state meet is roughly equal to what it was in 2000.