Cerake Geberkidane led a very good year for the 5A 1600 in 2014, but the long-term trend for top finishes in the event has been one of stasis.
Previously, we've asked the same question about 3A Boys and 3A Girls. Now, we ask the question about 5A Boys: Do we have any evident trends in the state meet results of the top six finishers across a broad spectrum of events?
The only real way to answer that question is to look at the data. So, I've gathered the data in graphic form for the selected events. The vertical axis is in seconds for track events (lower is better) and in inches for field events (higher is better). Here are what those data show:
It's very much a sawtooth effect for the 5A Boys 400 meters. No trend, but a lot of variation from year to year is evident.
A similar sawtooth effect is evident here, with no long-term upward or downward trends in play.
Perhaps surprisingly, there is a trend here, and the trend is--apart from the exceptional year of 2006, toward slower top times in the 300 meter hurdles.
We see here five low years, three high years, and all the rest of the years falling with a top-six average between 42.4 and 42.6 seconds. No trend is evident here.
After some very good marks in the 2000-03 range, things have settled within a relatively narrow window for this event. It could be, though this is just a hypothesis, that coaches were more willing to roll the dice and risk a big effort in earlier years with this event whereas it is now treated more cautiously--at least with respect to the top runners on these relay teams.
Apart from exceptional years in 2002 and 2013, all we appear to have showing here is a sawtooth effect without any really trends in the data.
It's a little more difficult to tell if we have a trend here. There were exceptional years in 2007 and 2008, with 2016 challenging those two years. Either the cycles are longer in the pole vault, or it could be we have a hint at a long-term upward trend in the pole vault results. Another couple of years may help us to decide that question.
The long-term trend in results for the 5A Boys shot put is rather clearly one of decline. Top six averages in 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2005 have not been met or exceeded since that time.
In the big picture, 5A Boys performances have been mostly stable over the last 17 years, but there is good reason to believe two of the above events are in decline, with one other event possibly showing evidence of long-term gains.
I doubt this scenario is one that many people would have projected. But, awareness is the first need. We are aware now.
