Earlier in the week, I published the typical look ahead to the week's meets. In this article, I aim to go less into the meets and venues, per se, and more into what we can expect to learn from this week's meets.
We'll start with a trip to California for Peak to Peak, Centaurus, Palmer Ridge, and Grandview. Recall that last year Mountain Vista and Palmer Ridge made the trip to Woodbridge and ended up stunning the entire nation with a 1-2 finish in the boys sweepstakes race. And Brie Oakley added immensely to her personal resume with an extremely convincing girls individual title.
For Oakley, that was the springboard to a magical cross country season. For Mountain Vista and Palmer Ridge, it was the high point of a season that began to unravel thereafter (though not necessarily immediately so) for both teams.
There should be no doubt that the memory of Woodbridge, and what followed the remainder of the season, sticks in the memory of both Mountain Vista and Palmer Ridge. Mountain Vista made the decision not to go back this year. Palmer Ridge made the decision to return. Different ways of dealing with similar memories.
So far this year, Palmer Ridge has shown well against, but absorbed losses to, both Mountain Vista and Monarch. And the Palmer Ridge girls are on top of their race in a way no girls team at Palmer Ridge ever has been before.
And, in a region like Nike Southwest, Palmer Ridge can't afford to take a trip to California and come back with so-so kind of results. If they aim to make a trip to Portland in December--and it's not out of the question for either team--they need a big showing at Woodbridge to bolster their at-large chances.
So, there is much at stake for Palmer Ridge.
Centaurus is, perhaps, less of a team nipping at the edges of the top tier and more of a team looking to expand their vision of what they can be (though I will note here that the Centaurus boys gave Monarch a closer contest than Palmer Ridge did). As such, there's probably less pressure on the Warriors but still very much at stake. A big performance here goes a long way toward building confidence and validating the positive vibes that have growing around this team.
Suffice it to say that we'll understand a lot more about just how good this Centaurus team can be after this weekend.
Peak to Peak's girls have spent the last week looking at a third-place finish at St. Vrain and resolving that they take the race to the next level this weekend. Certainly, Woodbridge is a bigger fish to fry in the greater scheme of the season, but it can also be a little unnerving not to roll cleanly through the lesser challenges along the way. Woodbridge could be huge in laying the foundation for the rest of the Peak to Peak season. A big result and they're right back on track. A performance that never quite gets off the ground and a lot of nagging questions could start showing up.
There's a reason we refer to these as high-stakes races.
Grandview should be able to put all the pieces of their girls team together this weekend in California. They opened without Caroline Robbins, then had her back, but not at full speed. If she's at or close to full speed this weekend, then this becomes a big test for Grandview. Are the Wolves ready to carve out a permanent place among the state's top teams? Can they show it here?
The Grandview boys are enjoying, so far, what is arguably the top season in school history. Woodbridge can become a big landmark down that road with a stellar effort.
Back at home, stakes are a little lower, but not inconsequential.
Attending to patterns, listening to my own hunches, and picking up shreds of rumor here and there, I do not believe we'll be seeing regular varsity teams for Mountain Vista (boys and girls) or Broomfield (girls) this weekend. I could be wrong about that, but I don't expect to be.
Both Mountain Vista and Broomfield laid a lot on the line last weekend. There's only so many times in the season you want to do that, and this weekend doesn't look like one of those times for either program. Mountain Vista will be at Rock Canyon, and Broomfield will be home at their own meet. It's probably a little more difficult to sit out your varsity at your home meet than an away meet, but there's plenty of precedent (even in the Broomfield program) for doing it.
Speaking of home meets, that brings us to Rock Canyon. In theory, Rock Canyon could back off on using the top varsity types this weekend, but the Jaguars have less of a history of doing that than some other top teams around the state. It's no guarantee, but I think I expect to see the Rock Canyon regulars this weekend.
And, if so, there should be plenty of competition for them to take on in the form of Rampart, ThunderRidge, Valor Christian, Castle View, Heritage, Legend, Monarch, Cherokee Trail, and the Red Army of Albuquerque Academy. And the second teams at Mountain Vista are certainly nothing to take lightly. You can be sure AA is bringing the varsity regulars--and so this meet has some implications for regional rankings--but it's a little less certain if the other teams mentioned are loading up for this one. We'll know at the starting line, I guess. After two big weekends at Centaurus and St. Vrain, though, I could easily see Monarch taking something of a breather for the varsity regulars here.
In 3A matchups of note, The Classical Academy travels to Eagle Valley where they square off with Steamboat Springs. Salida travels to Gunnison to square off with the Cowboys. D'Evelyn, Conifer, Jefferson Academy, and SkyView Academy meet up at Arvada West. So, we should get a lot of match-ups between top teams that haven't seen much of one another yet this season. All this has great potential to help define the next round of rankings.
Durango's Southwest Sunset is much more of a larger school meet this year and much less of a smaller school meet than it traditionally is. It helps that Durango is hosting a regional this year and teams headed for that region can visit and get a look at the lay of the land. Widefield, Montrose, and Pueblo West are coming over from the region. Grand Junction and Central are making the trip, as is Alamosa. And several schools are coming in from out-of-state. In short, this is quite the gathering David McMillan has going this year. It's been a while since the community of Durango has witnessed a cross country meet that figures to be as competitive as this one.
Team numbers seem to be down a little at John Martin from previous years, but Discovery Canyon is making the trip to butt heads with a nice cross section of Wyoming and northern Colorado teams. After a week off last week, Discovery Canyon should be anxious to get back to some serious racing this week.
A substantial collection of Colorado Springs-area teams are pointed toward the Air Academy Invitational this weekend. In more recent years, this meet has tended to draw a large representation of B teams from the larger schools attending. Nobody sets any PRs here, by the way--it's a rigorous course, studded with one of the meanest hills of any course in the state.
Also on Thursday, Northfield's meet is drawing a crowd of almost (but not quite) exclusively Denver-area teams. Cheyenne Mountain and Berthoud are the two most notable exceptions to that rule. I expect this new course on the scene will tend to run pretty fast, but we'll wait to see what the results have to say about that. Those Denver schools that aren't at this meet (and probably a couple that are) figure to be headed to the Denver North meet on Tuesday.
I haven't touched on every meet this weekend, much less every team going to every meet, but I hope there's enough of a guide here that you feel informed about what the larger stories appear to be as we head into the weekend.