Fresh off a string of solid performances, the Fort Collins boys have the look of a 5A contender. Photo by Alan Versaw.
4A Region 1
By the luck of the draw, this region doesn't appear to be quite as hotly contested as the other 4A boys regions. With a likely five entries to state, Evergreen and D`Evelyn look like the favorites to grab the first two. Based on season results to date, Centaurus, Mullen, and Wheat Ridge stand next in line, with Conifer and Golden holding out hope for a solid regional race.
Most invidual top 15s will belong to the state-qualifying schools, but Shane Niksic of Conifer is a strong contender for an individual slot should his team not make it.
4A Region 2
It's possible, though not assured, that this one will advance seven teams to state. And, since the meet is in Lyons on the same day as a 3A regional, look for parking to be crowded on the streets of Lyons.
Once the cars get parked, look for Greeley West, Thompson Valley, Niwot, Fossil Ridge, Broomfield, Fort Morgan, and Roosevelt to mix it up for state berths. If any team can crack this group of seven, Silver Creek would be the odds-on favorite to do that.
Two or three individuals from non-qualifying teams may make the state field, but battles for those top 15 positions will be tough enough that it seems premature to lay that expectation on anyone.
4A Region 3
No other 4A region has as nice of a distribution of both team and individual talent as this one. Five teams should advance to state, and five solid teams they should be. Cheyenne Mountain, Castle View, Ridgeview Academy, Rock Canyon, and Lewis-Palmer are the current leaders of the pack. If they take the five slots, Woodland Park, Palmer Ridge, and last year's state champ, Falcon, stay at home.
Individually, Shawn Dubbs (Woodland Park), Spencer Wenck (Palmer Ridge), and Chris Stearns (Falcon) are all running well enough to earn individual bids to state.
If you can take your pick of attending any one 4A regional, this would be a great one to pick!
4A Region 4
Another region with a likely five teams to state. Pueblo West and Widefield are holding together just a little better than last year and look to claim the top two team slots out of the region. Behind them, Alamosa, Pueblo South, Pueblo Centennial, and Canon City are tightly packed in a race for the remaining slots. The meet venue, Monument Valley Park, tends to favor speed over strength. The course is mostly level and mostly on firmly-packed dirt trail with a smattering of grass at the start and finish.
Several runners from non-qualifying teams will be jockeying for state positions. If Canon City doesn't make it, count Tabor Stevens among this group. Also figure in William Edwards of Harrison, Emilio Trujillo of Sierra, and Shane Molina of Mesa Ridge. The placement of these runners could conceivably affect the overall outcome of teams advancing to state.
4A Region 5
Four teams. No more.
All season long, Moffat County has been the leader of the 4A western slope programs. That doesn't figure to change at the regional meet, but nothing is guaranteed until the race is in the books (or in the scoring program, as the case may be).
With six teams in a good position to advance to state and only four slots, figure that things will get interesting on the Aspen Golf Course. Top contenders in addition to Moffat County are Glenwood springs, Steamboat Springs, Montrose, Battle Mountain, and Rifle.
Although Palisade is a long shot to qualify for state, Kevin Martinez currently owns the best time in the region.
5A Region 1
Make way for the Centennial League powers as they figure to weigh heavily in the outcome of this one. With Matt Caldwell back in the lineup, Smoky Hill just might be a slight favorite in this one, though Chaparral, Arapahoe, and Eaglecrest would all prefer to be left a say in the matter. And a say they will have.
Although the seasons these teams have had indicate they're the best bet for the first four slots, one more slot remains and it promises to get interesting between Grand Junction, Arvada West, Abraham Lincoln, and Denver East High Schools.
As far as individual berths go, Columbine's William Kincaid is a leading candidate to find himself running in Fort Collins on Halloween.
5A Region 2
This is everyone's poster child for regional realignment. What do you get when you have, in all probability, five slots to state and six great teams? You get a pedal-to-the-metal regional meet. Look for Cherry Creek, Regis Jesuit, Cherokee Trail, Heritage, Denver South, and Dakota Ridge to leave nothing to chance at this one. Injury issues further cloud to outlook for this region. Few, if any, of the teams are fully healthy and that means each and every team has to feel a little uneasy about this one.
Drew Ryther of Bear Creek figures to emerge out of the fray with an individual berth to state, but that is a long way from a sure thing. Nobody will be giving him a free pass just for the pleasure of seeing an individual qualify for state.
Everything must be earned in this region.
5A Region 3
With five slots to allocate to state and four teams on a season-long higher tier than the rest, Pomona, Boulder, Fruita Monument, and Fairview can battle it out for the regional trophy. In all likelihood, the remaining schools will be battling it out for the right to extend their season. ThunderRidge and Green Mountain appear to be the top candidates for that honor.
Ralston Valley's Colin Brewster, with a couple of meet titles under his belt this season, will be running for an individual berth to state and a slim hope of a team qualifier.
It's worth noting, however, that regions like this that seem very cut-and-dried going in, often end up with a surprise or two. Complacency is a killer at this point in the season.
5A Region 4
On paper, Monarch should win this one, but paper makes a lousy surface for running. That's why Loveland, Fort Collins, and all the rest are showing up for the race. There is something yet to be settled here, and Fort Collins, in particular, has been looking ready to challenge some of the classification's big dogs of late.
Monarch, Loveland, Fort Collins, Rocky Mountain, and Thornton have the inside track to the five likely slots to state this region will offer up. With a great race, however, any of Legacy, Mountain Range, and Poudre could crash the party.
In fact, Legacy's Paul Petersen brings the top time into the regional meet. If he can pull his teammates along....
5A Region 5
Historically, this is a tough region. And they say that history tends to repeat itself. That, in a nutshell, summarizes this one.
Rampart and Coronado are both riding a terrific string of outings. Both may be reluctant to go full throttle at the regional meet, but neither can afford to get careless here. A season's worth of performances say that Palmer is only slightly back, and Mountain Vista only slightly behind Palmer.
Following these four schools, the theoretical gap gets a little bigger before reaching a cluster of schools vying for a probable fifth qualifying spot. Durango, Liberty, Fountain-Fort Carson, and Air Academy each have reason to think they can make the grade. Liberty and Durango have the strongest front-runners, Air Academy just might have the best #5. It should prove to be interesting.