If you can't spot a few contenders for the individual state title in this photo, you aren't very familiar with 5A girls cross country. Photo by Alan Versaw.
I know you read the 5A previews because the site visits always spike shortly after they go up. That makes me a little nervous to write these, knowing that there's a whole bunch of people out there who are likely to remind me of foolish things I wrote in August should I miss the mark with certain teams.
Oh well, here we go...
Fort Collins is the reigning champion. While acknowledging that the Lambkins will run into some serious competition along the way, I'm inclined to think they go in as pre-season favorites. Erin Hooker is back, older and wiser. Marci Witczak is back, and probably with healthier legs than she had last fall. Two more return from the #3 team in the nation, and Chris Suppes has a way of filling in the pieces. Great history typically trumps a great freshman class. Great history and great coaching almost always trumps a great freshman class. And who's to say Fort Collins doesn't have a great freshman class?
The challenges that Fort Collins will face in repeating for a third time will, however, depend somewhat on who brings in the best freshman class. While Fort Collins has the best recent history in 5A girls, there are a few other schools that have a little history and solid coaching in their corners as well. Certainly, Pine Creek, Boulder, Loveland, and Highlands Ranch each have the potential to be serious players. Throw in Monarch, Palmer, and Mountain Vista and I think you have completed the circle of obvious contenders.
Heather Bates had an outstanding freshman year of cross country for Pine Creek and only got better in track. Leanne Kofford and Laura Yarrow look solid behind her. The Eagles must be reckoned with this fall.
We need no introduction to Eleanor Fulton, Kristen Kientz, and Kristi Oslund at Highlands Ranch. The big question for the Falcons is how strong their four and five runners will be this fall.
Mountain Vista was very young last fall, but came of age a little in the open race of the Nike Southwest Regional meet. Like Pine Creek, these Eagles should be soaring. At this point, Mountain Vista seems to lack a true front runner, but don't be deceived into thinking that they can be ignored on account of that.
Boulder struggled in track last spring, but anyone with a memory beyond the life span of a house fly recalls the trouble they caused for everyone except Fort Collins last fall. Boulder was second at state and graduated nobody off of that team. The big questions for Boulder concern how well their front runners can return to the form they showed last fall. If Kelsey Lakowske and Sam Lewis have big seasons, Boulder can run away with it all. The supporting cast is in place. In fact, the supporting cast may be good enough to make a serious run even one or the other of the last year's top two struggles this fall.
Palmer seems to have reservations on fifth place--or thereabouts--in 5A. The Terrors have the horses to run, they simply need to break the pattern of almost-but-not-quite.
Quietly, Monarch has built themselves into a contender. Rebecca Richmond is close to being a true front runner. If she graduates into that role this fall, the Coyotes will likely end up with a lot more team visibility as well. Team visibility can make or break a contender.
Loveland has been the subject of many, many rumors for the past year or so. The gist of those rumors is that the Indians have inherited the mother lode of freshman girls. Kailie Hartman had an outstanding freshman campaign last fall. Torrey Stephenson was strong and consistent not far behind Hartman. If there are a few more like these two in the wings, this team has "special" written all over it.
The intrigue doesn't retreat when we start talking about the individual race. Based on last spring's state track results, Heather Bates looks like the one to beat. But, honestly, this year's state course (see upcoming article on the state course--publication should happen by not later than Tuesday) may favor smaller runners. And that might even the playing field a little. A long list of potential contenders includes Kelsey Lakowske and Sam Lewis of Boulder, Kristen Narum of Fairview, Kailie Hartman of Loveland, Erin Hooker of Fort Collins, Eleanor Fulton of Highlands Ranch, Hannah Everson and Gina Hauptman of Liberty, and probably a freshman phenom or two yet to officially arrive on the scene.