Will Scoggins is a big part of the reason that Rangely is hopeful of sending a team to state. Photo contributed by Matt Scoggins at the request of Colorado Track XC.
It's the time of year when everyone is wondering how many teams will make it out of their region to the state meet. This article, and those that follow for other classifications, will attempt to provide a preliminary answer that question.
One one level, the answer is easy: simply multiply the number of complete teams that finish your regional race by 0.4. Then round that number up if the decimal portion is .5 or higher and round down if the decimal portion is less than .5. See? Simple!
Or maybe not so simple. How in the world do you forecast how many complete teams will finish your regional race. Prior to the last runner crossing the finish line, you can't say with certainty how many complete teams will finish in your region.
BUT, you can look at the number of schools in each region and get an educated guess at how many teams will qualify for state. And that's what the rest of this article is about.
2A Region 1
This is the current power region in the 2A rankings. Based on results in the MileSplit database, the following schools have enough runners for complete teams:
Boys (10) - Lyons, Alexander Dawson, Resurrection Christian, Wiggins, Lutheran-Parker, Denver Academy, Shining Mountain Waldorf, Merino, Yuma, and Nederland
Girls (10) - Nederland, Lyons, Lutheran-Parker, Yuma, Denver Christian, Shining Mountain Waldorf, Alexander Dawson, Resurrection Christian, Wiggins, and Merino.
That's ten each of boys and girls teams. That would mean four boys teams and four girls teams should qualify for state out of this region. Those numbers would also qualify if the number of complete teams drops to nine. If, however, the number of complete teams drops to eight, only three teams would advance to state.
2A Region 2
Not the power region, but a decent region in terms of programs with complete teams.
Girls (5) - Fountain Valley, Rocky Ford, Vanguard, Rye, and Evangelical Christian Academy
Boys (7) - Rocky Ford, Fountain Valley, Evangelical Christian Academy, Peyton, South Baca, Vanguard, Pikes Peak Christian.
Projections are, then, that two girls teams and three boys teams will qualify for state out of this region. The number of complete girls teams can drop to four and two teams would still qualify. If even one complete team drops from the boys' list, however, the number of qualifying teams for state will drop to two.
2A Region 3
Things get a little bleak here in terms of complete teams, especially so on the girls' side:
Boys (5) - Del Norte, Creede, Custer County, Center, Centennial
Girls (2) - Sargent, Del Norte
In theory, if either Del Norte or Sargent drops out of the girls' race, there would be no girls' team qualifying out of this region. But, not to fear, there is a back door solution. That back door solution would be that the top 15 individuals qualify for state as well. And so, if any team has three or more individuals in the top 15, those individuals will score as a team at state. 2A has a history, albeit brief, of sending "teams" to state via qualifying individuals. In light of that, figure it's highly likely that both Sargent and Del Norte will have teams of girls at state. For the boys, look for two teams to advance to state.
2A Region 4
There will be weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth when the state berths are distributed out of this region.
Girls (4) - Crested Butte, Mancos, Telluride, Ouray
Boys (6) - Telluride, Rangely, Crested Butte, Mancos, Ouray, Meeker
It stinks to be a bubble team in this region. There are a couple of good 2A programs that simply aren't going to send teams to state, unless they get in via the back door. As things stand now, two girls teams will qualify, but if the number of complete teams drops by one, only one girls team will qualify. For the boys, two teams will qualify, but this is kind of a strong region for 2A boys. It's also strong enough that the chances of a boys team qualifying through the back door are somewhat diminished. Telluride figures to go, but the rest of the teams had better be ready to strap it on--as the saying goes.
If you add up the expected counts of qualifiers, you get about nine girls teams (before back door entries) and about 11 boys teams (before back door entries). Due to individual qualifiers, there will be a minimum of 15 runners advancing from each region. So, that all leads to an expectation of somewhere around 70 to 75 runners in both the boys' and girls' state fields.
If you'd like to check out on your own how the teams in your region stack up, click on Rankings/High School Boys (or Girls) Teams. Then go to Advanced Parameters and select your region to filter the rankings. Disclaimer: The MileSplit rankings are based on scoring five and based on performances at any point in the season. 2A, obviously, doesn't score five, so you have to be a little discerning about how you use the team rankings. Also, people who had an early-season mark may not necessarily still be running with a particular team.