Kyle Becker and Jake Rothman are two of the reasons Alexander Dawson figures to be a prominent 2A contender next fall. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Even a cursory look at this year's state meet results gives us reason to hope for the strongest 2A boys field so far next fall. While there were seniors sprinkled throughout the top 20 at the state meet, the field was not a senior-dominated field. Most of the best teams figure to be at about the same strength as this fall or stronger.
And, there must always be a caveat with 2A cross country: With only three scoring runners, a team can turn from a non-contender to a contender in a hurry. It's difficult to forecast from afar whom that will happen to, but it's almost guaranteed we will see one or two surprise teams on next year's horizon. But, if I told you who they are now, they wouldn't be surprises, now would they?
Here's a quick look at the indications that we can read for next fall:
Telluride - The Miners bring back Ty Williams for his senior season next fall. The two-time state individual champion figures to be the favorite again next fall. Colten Rogers and Gabe Torres graduate, but Nathan Loomis is back. If Keith Hampton can continue building the program and keep his team healthy, this group should be among the contenders for a repeat title next fall. It seems reasonable at this point to figure Telluride as a team that should be about the same strength next fall as they were this fall.
Lyons - Zach Pfeifer departs by way of graduation, but Coach Roberts appears to have a stable full of young talent that should only be a year better next fall. Sean Flynn, Ryan Boucher, and Sam Crowley had very nice seasons last fall and came along well as the season developed. Plus, Lyons has an established tradition as a small-school cross country power. As such, the pipeline always has one or two products coming through. The Lions should be able to mount a serious challenge to Telluride for 2A supremacy next fall. The anticipated trend for next fall is decidedly upward.
Peyton - Replacing Nick Baca and Sabian Beard is going to be brutal. Some young talent will need to progress in a hurry for the Panthers. At this moment, Peyton looks to be into rebuilding mode next fall.
Del Norte - Kaleb Stephens and Shawn Beiriger give the Tigers good reason to believe they can be at least as strong next fall as they were this year. Sophomor- to-be John Haefeli, however, may represent the most potential on the team. It appears that scheduling presents some dilemmas for this squad. Del Norte would likely benefit from some added exposure to the top 2A teams in the state, but that's not always an easy card to play when your school is geographically isolated from the other 2A powers. The anticipated trend for next fall is upward. Whether that's slightly upward or strongly upward is a story waiting to be told.
Alexander Dawson - The Mustangs came along well as the fall progressed but then suffered somewhat of a disappointment at the state meet. The team will be older, stronger, and wiser next fall. Kyle Becker, Jake Rothman, and Ryan Howarth should each be back for their senior season. It's not at all unreasonable to think this team will take another step up next fall. Should they do that, it's conceivable they join the ranks of Telluride and Lyons as top title contenders. That will take a little more than just the usual progression from junior to senior years for the big three, however.
Fountain Valley - Coach Tommy Manning has brought the program from the edge of slipping into oblivion. The program is among the largest (if not the largest) in the 2A ranks and has seen steady progress with Manning at the helm. Sometimes team leader Jordan Clementi leaves by way of graduation, but junior-to-be Rodrigo Baeza just might become one of the top 2A individuals with a small measure of added consistency in his racing. The younger runners need to continue to develop for this team to move to the next tier, but there's little reason to think that will not happen. Fountain Valley may struggle to find their bearings a little early in the season, but should develop into a solid team by season's end. A solid year of development for Daniel Wilkins would portend a move in exactly that direction.
Mancos - How do you fill a hole like Eric Lewis? Coach Brady Archer has that challenge to look forward to in 2011. Mancos ran two sophomores and a freshman at state last fall and those three will have to step up in a big way for Mancos to revisit the kind of success they had this past fall.
Rocky Ford - The Meloneers slipped from 1st to 8th from 2009 to 2010. Making matters worse, Jacob Garcia--this year's top finisher at state--was a senior. Rocky Ford has a way of not staying down for long, however. If Ron Shepherd has another fine team in 2011, nobody is going to be all that surprised. Still, as of this moment, next year's season for Rocky Ford looks like a continuation of the rebuiling project.
Underappreciated in 2010:
Rangely - The Panthers don't come next on the list of state finishers from last fall, but this is a team that went from nowhere to somewhere in a hurry last fall. It appears the program has energy, and they have Will Scoggins returning for his junior season to set the pace for this team. Geographic isolation means Rangely will see a lot of competition against teams like Fruita-Monument, Glenwood Springs, and Moffat County. That bodes well for the continued rise of the program.
Crested Butte - The Titans ran two freshmen at state this fall--Ian Boucher and Forrest Smith. In any other region, they probably would have qualified a team for state, but the only two western slope slots went to Telluride and Mancos. Crested Butte figures to be in a stronger position next fall. Sometimes runners have to be borrowed off the soccer team in this small mountain community, but it figures to be a move up for Crested Butte next fall regardless.
Dark Horse Special:
Lutheran-Parker - This is one school that is rapidly becoming a force in 2A athletics. The cross country team, under coach Jason Hubbard, is definitely a part of the roaring of the Lions. To date, the girls' program has garnered most of the attention, but the boys' program has been on the rise as well. Hubbard isn't afraid to stick his nose into big meets and that is going to pay dividends for his teams if he can teach the troops to think of themselves as a group who can run with the bigger schools.