Alfredo Lebron was out in front of a lot of races this spring. Figure that doesn't change much this fall. Photo by Alan Versaw.
After taking a look at the 2A boys in the first article, I thought it would be fun to move up to bigger schools and try to take a hack at a top 10 for 4A boys. Understand, however, that this analysis leaves out the all-important component of who does what this summer.
Allowing for that, here's a quick look at the top several returning finishers from the 4A state cross country meet last fall. The state meet doesn't tell all that happened last cross country season, but it does put everyone on the same course, and it is the same course we'll all compete on again on October 29.
4 Alfredo Lebron JR Moffat County 16:27.42 4
7 Gus Waneka JR Thompson Valley 16:40.12 7
9 Andrew Mansfield JR Glenwood Springs 16:44.62 9
11 Bryce Gregoire JR Falcon 16:52.82 --
13 Nick Harris JR Niwot 17:01.13 13
14 Chandler Reid SO Centaurus 17:01.37 14
15 Josh Davis JR Lewis Palmer 17:03.82 15
16 Dan Egger SO Coronado 17:05.77 16
18 Josiah Valenzuela JR Mesa Ridge 17:06.57 18
20 Daniel Lara SO Thompson Valley 17:14.87 20
21 Jackson Sayler SO Evergreen 17:15.47 21
24 Ryan Mott JR Coronado 17:18.12 24
28 Joe Maloney SO Durango 17:26.77 --
29 Darren Thomas JR Air Academy 17:26.97 29
30 Brandon Gallardo SO John F Kennedy 17:27.32 --
33 Ben Forsee JR Broomfield 17:32.78 33
And then, a quick look at the top returning 3200 times across the 4A class classification for this spring:
1. 9:35.48 Alfredo Lebron CO Moffat County High School 2012
2. 9:43.41 Gus Waneka CO Thompson Valley High School 2012
3. 9:53.07 Josh Davis CO Lewis-Palmer High School 2012
4. 9:56.20 Ben Forsee CO Broomfield High School 2012
5. 9:57.43 Nick Harris CO Niwot High School 2012
6. 9:57.58 Joe Maloney CO Durango High School 2013
7. 9:59.05 Chandler Reid CO Centaurus High School 2013
8. 10:05.00 Daniel Lara CO Thompson Valley High School 2013
9. 10:06.70 Josiah Valenzuela CO Mesa Ridge High School 2012
10. 10:08.76 Justin Weinmeister CO Windsor High School 2013
11. 10:09.01 Ethan Gonzales CO Broomfield High School 2014
12. 10:09.59 Nick Taylor CO D`Evelyn High School 2012
13. 10:09.63 Andrew Mansfield CO Glenwood Springs High School
14. 10:12.45 Mitchell Klomp CO Pueblo South High School 2012
15. 10:13.31 Francisco Pedraza CO Ridgeview Academy 2012
16. 10:13.78 Bryce Gregoire CO Falcon High School 2012
17. 10:16.57 Darren Thomas CO Air Academy High School 2012
18. 10:18.59 Jackson Sayler CO Evergreen High School 2013
19. 10:19.73 William Zimmerman CO Niwot High School 2012
20. 10:20.84 Ben Leitz CO Windsor High School 2014
A few things jump out at us pretty quickly. Among those, Ben Forsee and Joe Maloney had a better track seasons than they had state cross country meets. Just the opposite for Bryce Gregoire. And, Gregoire presents an interesting situation. Coach Magnall has departed Falcon HS to coach in the college ranks, meaning that Gregoire will need to adjust to the routines and workouts of a new coach. Throw Nick Taylor out of the analysis because he runs cross country for 3A Colorado Academy. Andrew Mansfield's 3200 experience seems a little behind what his cross country season would have indicated.
Next, try to sort out who runs better cross country simply because things work that way at their school. It could be a different coach for cross country and track. It could be any number of reasons, but the fact remains some schools consistently perform better in cross country than track (and some schools show the opposite tendency).
Taking all that into consideration, here's my guess at a 4A boys top 10 heading into the fall:
1. Alfredo Lebron - This one doesn't qualify as a tough call. Everyone in front of Lebron has graduated and Lebron seems to be coming fully into his own.
2. Gus Waneka - Partly because Coach Norton is a close friend, I've been following Waneka's progress through high school. He started out as a solid runner and has become better with each year. If there's a guy who can chase down Lebron on Powerline Climb, Waneka has my vote as the guy to do it.
3. Ben Forsee - You have to like the progress Forsee has been making. Everything about his track season says he is climbing the ladder of success. And, at Broomfield, there is no drop-off from track to cross country. My guess is that he will be underestimated early in the season but won't leave that as an option later in the season.
4. Nick Harris - Niwot has had a lot of high-end cross country runners in the last decade. Harris is the latest on the list. He needs to make a jump from his junior year to his senior year to be in the mix for the title, though.
5. Josh Davis - Davis's results from the first of May forward say he could easily be ranked higher than #5. Something very positive happened at the end of the track season. Now, the question stands: Can he transfer that success forward into cross country season?
6. Chandler Reid - Reid's track season didn't quite follow the trajectory of his cross country season. I'm of a mind, though, that things are likely to get back on track for cross country. Too much positive happened for Centaurus last fall for things to revert back to what they were again this fall.
7. Joe Maloney - It has to be a little intimidating to walk the halls of Durango HS and review the cross country history. Will Maloney be the next big gun in Demon cross country lore? This would be a good season to start moving in that direction. His track season says it's possible.
8. Daniel Lara - The benefit of training with Gus Waneka may end up moving Lara higher on the list than I have him now. Factor in the fact that TV figures to be in the team title hunt and there's lots of reason for Lara to have a big junior season. It's easy to forget he was just a sophomore this year.
9. Andrew Mansfield - Nobody--well, almost nobody--drops off the face of the competitive earth in the space of a year. Mansfield has some ground to make back, but he was too good of a cross country runner last fall not to make up some of that ground.
10. Bryce Gregoire - As mentioned above, Gregoire is the wild card in this deck. The 3200 wasn't really his specialty race this spring in track and that probably didn't do much for his performances in this event. But, the adjustment to a new coach and a new training program will have to be made. This one could go either way. Nobody disputes that there's a lot of talent here, but we're all waiting to see what happens in the fall.
And, wouldn't it be fun if there's an incoming freshman to mix everything up at the top this fall?
Alfredo Lebron was out in front of a lot of races this spring. Figure that doesn't change much this fall. Photo by Alan Versaw.