Regional Forecasts: 4A Region 1

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Max Bonenberger is on the bubble for a state-qualifying position as an individual, but he gets to make the attempt on the Summit home course.

Call this one the I-70 region. Except for Littleton and Mullen, all of the schools live perilously close to I-70. And, the regional meet itself also won't be that far from I-70. This year, it's as the Frisco Peninsula Recreation area. That is likely to favor the schools from higher elevation and ones who get to see a few more hills in their training routing. As a bonus, you can chill your aching legs in Lake Dillon after the race!

We'll start this regional forecast with a look at the boys:

4A Region 1 Boys

1Eagle Valley High School (CO)60
1) Aiden Branch16:19.953
2) Jack Neifert16:34.094
3) Carter Baker17:02.4514
4) Emerson Betz17:12.2919
5) Bailey Beckum17:13.3420
Average Time: 16:52.42 Total Time: 1:24:22.12 1-5 Split: 53.39
6) Luke Morrissey17:30.0025
7) John Papadopoulos17:35.2728
2Battle Mountain High School (CO)87
1) Nick Williams16:49.739
2) David Reilly17:06.7416
3) James Moran17:08.9617
4) Jason Macaluso17:23.7022
5) Jake Allen17:23.9323
Average Time: 17:10.61 Total Time: 1:25:53.06 1-5 Split: 34.20
6) Deagen Fahrney17:31.5126
7) Nico Piliero17:39.5133
3Mullen High School (CO)92
1) Bryce Medaris16:05.002
2) Will Locascio16:48.008
3) Michael Dudzic16:54.6011
4) Robert Manta17:38.2032
5) Robbie Manta17:53.0039
Average Time: 17:03.76 Total Time: 1:25:18.80 1-5 Split: 1:48.00
6) Ryan Carrigan18:17.4050
7) Sebastian Campos18:24.0054
4Glenwood Springs High School (CO)113
1) Henry Barth16:37.005
2) Gavin Harden16:57.0013
3) Ian Richardson17:11.4018
4) William Berkheimer17:45.6035
5) Mathew Thrun17:56.5042
Average Time: 17:17.50 Total Time: 1:26:27.50 1-5 Split: 1:19.50
6) Bryce Risner18:23.6053
7) William Kaufman18:30.2055
5Evergreen High School (CO)164
1) Colin Szuch16:45.006
2) Wentzel Van der Berg17:38.0031
3) Thomas Biasi17:50.0038
4) Max Straub17:55.0041
5) Oliver Barwell18:10.0048
Average Time: 17:39.60 Total Time: 1:28:18.00 1-5 Split: 1:25.00
6) Carter Hudson18:33.0058
7) Wyatt Michener18:47.0068
6Green Mountain High School (CO)174
1) Grahm Tuohy-Gaydos16:55.9012
2) Aidan McCall17:46.0036
3) Alex Telles17:49.7037
4) Drake Troyer17:58.5043
5) Zach Jesaitis18:03.2046
Average Time: 17:42.66 Total Time: 1:28:33.30 1-5 Split: 1:07.30
6) Alex Walker18:30.4056
7) Caleb Neel18:40.0063
7Wheat Ridge High School (CO)189
1) Drew Seidel15:57.001
2) Nick Baumann17:37.0029
3) Isaac Hoskins17:45.0034
4) Rory Seidel18:21.0052
5) Allen Alford18:58.0073
Average Time: 17:43.60 Total Time: 1:28:38.00 1-5 Split: 3:01.00
6) Tanner Dalton18:58.0074
7) Vincent Pomponio18:59.0076
8Golden High School (CO)202
1) Garrett Duchesneau17:22.0021
2) Ethan Hensley17:38.0030
3) Noah Brown17:55.0040
4) Austin Rice18:18.0051
5) Danny Ridley18:36.0060
Average Time: 17:57.80 Total Time: 1:29:49.00 1-5 Split: 1:14.00
6) Hunter Twitty18:43.0066
7) Jack Swanson18:58.0075
9Palisade High School (CO)204
1) Brody Bittner16:51.0010
2) Landon Sauvage17:25.8024
3) Shiloh Trowbridge18:12.2149
4) Nathan Mauser18:31.0757
5) Travis Hedrick18:41.1064
Average Time: 17:56.24 Total Time: 1:29:41.18 1-5 Split: 1:50.10
6) Loddy Entwhistle18:43.9667
7) Logan Tarman19:01.8077
10Littleton High School (CO)218
1) Christian Sapakoff16:46.007
2) Cooper Brown18:02.0044
3) Christian Olsen18:06.0047
4) Matthew Sapakoff18:35.0059
5) Henry Jackson18:39.0061
Average Time: 18:01.60 Total Time: 1:30:08.00 1-5 Split: 1:53.00
6) Trevor Stutzman18:42.0065
7) Donovan Marshall18:50.0070
11Summit High School (CO)218
1) Max Bonenberger17:05.2015
2) Jeremiah Vaille17:32.6027
3) Korben Long18:02.8045
4) Sam Wescott18:39.2062
5) Gray Wasson18:47.3069
Average Time: 18:01.42 Total Time: 1:30:07.10 1-5 Split: 1:42.10
6) Sam Burke18:52.7071
7) Chris Rohlf18:52.8072

Eagle Valley has been consistently good, and mostly overlooked, all season long. The virtual meet has them at the top of the pile, and that is where they belong. They're not impossibly far ahead of the other contenders, but it will be an upset if they don't take the regional crown.

The virtual meet has the next three teams as Battle Mountain, Mullen, and Glenwood Springs, and there's a very good chance these will be the teams that gobble up the state meet berths. Three Jeffco teams--Green Mountain, Wheat Ridge, and Evergreen make up the next tier, but they'll need to scramble to close the gap on Battle Mountain, Mullen, and Glenwood. 

Certainly, there is the possibility for surprises on Thursday, and especially so given the elevation and nature of the regional course. But, from outward appearances of the rankings, this one looks like one of the more cut-and-dried regions where team state qualifying is concerned.

There isn't a deep roster of dominant individuals on the region's top teams, so we could see a longer-than-usual list of individual qualifiers coming out of this meet. Among those near the front of the line going in are Christian Sapakoff of Littleton, Brody Bittner of Palisade, plus Colin Szuch of Evergreen, Grahm Tuohy-Gaydos of Green Mountain, and the local favorite of Max Bonenberger of Summit. At the top of your list of likely individual qualifiers is Drew Seidel of Wheat Ridge.

Seidel is also a legitimate contender for the regional individual title. If he takes nicely to the rises and descents of the Frisco Peninsula, he could find himself dealing with characters like Aiden Branch and Bryce Medaris for regional top honors. But, be willing for the course to determine its own set of top contenders. Often a course like this will do that, and it's often not easy to predict who will rise to the top in such a circumstance.

Click on Next for the girls preview.