We continue here in the series examining how good preseason meets are at predicting state meet placement. The test case here will be 4A Boys for 2015. For an introduction to the assumptions and methodology involved, please check out the lead article in the series.
4A Boys 2015 Virtual Meet Team Scoring as a Predictor of State Finish
Here is what the preseason virtual meet from last year showed for 4A Boys:
| # | Team | Score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Durango High School | 58 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 22 | - | - |
| 2 | Palmer Ridge High School | 133 | 10 | 19 | 23 | 40 | 41 | - | - |
| 3 | Cheyenne Mountain High School | 158 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 46 | 60 | - | - |
| 4 | Classical Academy, The | 203 | 1 | 17 | 24 | 34 | 127 | - | - |
| 5 | Evergreen High School | 211 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 58 | 89 | - | - |
| 6 | Mountain View High School | 247 | 15 | 38 | 50 | 71 | 73 | - | - |
| 7 | Battle Mountain High School | 280 | 14 | 39 | 57 | 70 | 100 | - | - |
| 8 | Thompson Valley High School | 295 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 102 | 106 | - | - |
| 9 | Silver Creek High School | 397 | 31 | 65 | 75 | 86 | 140 | - | - |
| 10 | Air Academy High School | 415 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 182 | 189 | - | - |
| 11 | Falcon High School | 472 | 51 | 67 | 77 | 133 | 144 | - | - |
| 12 | Fort Morgan High School | 474 | 48 | 49 | 63 | 153 | 161 | - | - |
And then, this would be the actual order of finish for the top 12 teams at state:
| TEAM SCORES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLACE | TEAM | POINTS | SCORERS | TIMES | ||
| 1 | Durango High School | 73 | 5+10+14+19+25 (33+35) | 0:40 1-5 Split | 16:43 Avg | ||
| 2 | Palmer Ridge High School | 75 | 11+12+13+18+21 (71+120) | 0:21 1-5 Split | 16:46 Avg | ||
| 3 | Battle Mountain High School | 173 | 8+30+34+41+60 (64+66) | 1:17 1-5 Split | 17:18 Avg | ||
| 4 | Classical Academy, The | 175 | 1+31+39+51+53 (67+132) | 1:51 1-5 Split | 17:12 Avg | ||
| 5 | Air Academy High School | 205 | 9+23+40+61+72 (103+127) | 1:28 1-5 Split | 17:24 Avg | ||
| 6 | Evergreen High School | 230 | 7+28+54+59+82 (112+123) | 1:49 1-5 Split | 17:29 Avg | ||
| 7 | Mountain View High School | 232 | 16+44+49+58+65 (141+157) | 1:02 1-5 Split | 17:32 Avg | ||
| 8 | Thompson Valley High School | 262 | 6+20+55+83+98 (133+151) | 2:01 1-5 Split | 17:35 Avg | ||
| 9 | Widefield High School | 280 | 3+27+36+86+128 (131+165) | 2:40 1-5 Split | 17:34 Avg | ||
| 10 | Centaurus High School | 285 | 24+46+47+74+94 (146+160) | 1:20 1-5 Split | 17:45 Avg | ||
| 11 | Cheyenne Mountain High School | 292 | 15+42+56+79+100 (106+125) | 1:44 1-5 Split | 17:45 Avg | ||
| 12 | Golden High School | 340 | 2+45+81+105+107 (109+149) | 2:42 1-5 Split | 17:47 Avg | ||
Preliminary Assessment
The top two teams were projected correctly by the virtual meet, though not the closeness of their eventual finish. In all nine of the actual top 12 teams were included in the virtual meet, though there was generally a fit bit of scrambling of the order between projection and actual. Notable upward moves between projection and actual were negotiated by Air Academy, Battle Mountain, and Widefield. Cheyenne Mountain was the most noteworthy slide from the preseason projection. Other teams tended to stay closer to projected order of finish.
Neither injuries nor incoming freshmen can be credibly cited as doing much to disturb the order in this case.
In all, the virtual meet was a good predictor of eventual finish, but the correlation was not as strong as what we saw with 3A Boys.