In this article, we'll look at 4A Girls cross country this fall three different ways: 1) by marks of returning runners from last fall, 2) by 1600 times from this spring, and 3) by 3200 times from this spring.
Each of these three methods has advantages and disadvantages.
Using returning marks from last fall, we're using cross country times to project cross country times. There's a lot of merit to doing it that way. But, you get some out-of-state marks when you do that and there's not really any control for easier and more difficult courses.
Using 1600 times from this spring, you control for course variability and you pick up most--but not quite all--of the returning cross country runners. There still are a few problems with out-of-state marks, but less so than with cross country marks where half the state heads off to Arizona in November.
Using 3200 times from this spring, you get closer to the actual cross country distance than you do with 1600 times, but you eliminate more potential cross country runners from the analysis. Not everyone, and especially not every girl, runs the 3200 in the spring.
So I present all three analyses for you to help fill out the picture. We'll go short on commentary on the articles in this series because the numbers should stand up and speak for themselves, for the most part.
Below, you will find the top 15 teams in the state by each means of ranking. It's up to you to decide what it all means for this fall. And, remember, none of this takes into account incoming freshmen...
By Fall, 2016, Cross Country Times
| 1 | Battle Mountain High School (CO) | 56 | ||
| 1) Elizabeth Constien | 18:10.60 | 3 | ||
| 2) Lizzy Harding | 18:12.06 | 4 | ||
| 3) Naomi Harding | 18:19.08 | 6 | ||
| 4) Alex Raichart | 19:02.20 | 18 | ||
| 5) Kaela Fahrney | 19:16.20 | 25 | ||
| Average Time: 18:36.03 Total Time: 1:33:00.14 1-5 Split: 1:05.60 | ||||
| 6) Grace Johnson | 19:25.55 | 31 | ||
| 7) Megan Bamford | 19:50.00 | 46 | ||
| 2 | Air Academy High School (CO) | 102 | ||
| 1) Tatum Miller | 17:42.30 | 1 | ||
| 2) Lilliana Hamilton | 18:43.20 | 14 | ||
| 3) Mackenzie Moss | 19:11.00 | 22 | ||
| 4) Sophia Braza | 19:11.40 | 23 | ||
| 5) Ella Jane Urschel | 19:47.20 | 42 | ||
| Average Time: 18:55.02 Total Time: 1:34:35.10 1-5 Split: 2:04.90 | ||||
| 6) Paige Embaugh | 19:53.80 | 50 | ||
| 7) Jessica Luedtke | 21:51.10 | 172 | ||
| 3 | Durango High School (CO) | 192 | ||
| 1) Madeleine Burns | 19:08.00 | 21 | ||
| 2) Abby Scott | 19:19.40 | 27 | ||
| 3) Anna Smagacz | 19:19.70 | 28 | ||
| 4) Bekah Moenning | 19:45.80 | 39 | ||
| 5) Mary Fenberg | 20:22.50 | 77 | ||
| Average Time: 19:35.08 Total Time: 1:37:55.40 1-5 Split: 1:14.50 | ||||
| 6) Kiara Hamlin | 20:34.90 | 86 | ||
| 7) Julia Peterson | 21:13.50 | 130 | ||
| 4 | Palmer Ridge High School (CO) | 219 | ||
| 1) Anna Busath | 19:47.00 | 40 | ||
| 2) Shelby Wood | 19:47.00 | 41 | ||
| 3) Madeleine Bonneau | 19:49.00 | 43 | ||
| 4) Nicole Phaneuf | 19:49.00 | 44 | ||
| 5) Aubrey Wood | 19:54.60 | 51 | ||
| Average Time: 19:49.32 Total Time: 1:39:06.60 1-5 Split: 7.60 | ||||
| 6) Katie Cole | 20:11.90 | 68 | ||
| 7) Emily Gentry | 20:23.20 | 78 | ||
| 5 | Golden High School (CO) | 237 | ||
| 1) Rachel Goodrich | 18:27.07 | 9 | ||
| 2) Mary Fox | 18:37.65 | 12 | ||
| 3) Madelynn Gerritsen | 19:24.00 | 30 | ||
| 4) Maricel Mequi | 20:29.28 | 81 | ||
| 5) Grace Searls | 20:55.83 | 105 | ||
| Average Time: 19:34.77 Total Time: 1:37:53.83 1-5 Split: 2:28.76 | ||||
| 6) Mya Baker | 21:34.04 | 153 | ||
| 7) Andrea Doyle | 22:32.00 | 209 | ||
| 6 | Evergreen High School (CO) | 242 | ||
| 1) Tomah Whitney | 18:56.18 | 16 | ||
| 2) Bri Teegarden | 19:44.00 | 38 | ||
| 3) Kristina Schreiber | 19:57.84 | 55 | ||
| 4) Rachel Harris | 20:03.98 | 64 | ||
| 5) Carlee Trindl | 20:12.42 | 69 | ||
| Average Time: 19:46.88 Total Time: 1:38:54.42 1-5 Split: 1:16.24 | ||||
| 6) Jaden Phillips | 20:37.75 | 90 | ||
| 7) Kate Lisle | 21:07.10 | 122 | ||
| 7 | Centaurus High School (CO) | 255 | ||
| 1) Riley Geldean | 18:28.00 | 10 | ||
| 2) Helen Gover | 19:32.00 | 33 | ||
| 3) Brooke Calvo | 19:34.00 | 35 | ||
| 4) Katie Hooten | 20:07.00 | 66 | ||
| 5) Allison Macdonald | 20:59.00 | 111 | ||
| Average Time: 19:44.00 Total Time: 1:38:40.00 1-5 Split: 2:31.00 | ||||
| 6) Kira Biener | 21:00.20 | 115 | ||
| 7) Grace Armstrong | 21:29.00 | 149 | ||
| 8 | Thompson Valley High School (CO) | 302 | ||
| 1) Kenadi Krueger | 18:21.00 | 7 | ||
| 2) Izze Johnson | 19:43.00 | 37 | ||
| 3) Madeleine Boyles | 20:29.00 | 80 | ||
| 4) Gracy Roitsch | 20:33.00 | 84 | ||
| 5) Julia Lundgren | 20:42.00 | 94 | ||
| Average Time: 19:57.60 Total Time: 1:39:48.00 1-5 Split: 2:21.00 | ||||
| 6) Josie McCauley | 20:59.00 | 112 | ||
| 7) Emily Black | 21:11.00 | 126 | ||
| 9 | Silver Creek High School (CO) | 329 | ||
| 1) Lauren Zoe Baker | 19:16.00 | 24 | ||
| 2) Cami Fischmann | 19:52.00 | 49 | ||
| 3) Kylie Morgan | 19:59.00 | 56 | ||
| 4) Alyssa Morgan | 20:32.00 | 83 | ||
| 5) Hanna Burns | 21:02.00 | 117 | ||
| Average Time: 20:08.20 Total Time: 1:40:41.00 1-5 Split: 1:46.00 | ||||
| 6) Kate Eggen | 21:10.66 | 124 | ||
| 7) Abby Fostveit | 21:25.00 | 145 | ||
| 10 | Pine Creek High School (CO) | 412 | ||
| 1) Sarah Bassett | 19:32.00 | 34 | ||
| 2) Klara Aspelin | 20:15.00 | 71 | ||
| 3) Hannah Burkett | 20:27.00 | 79 | ||
| 4) Sophia Jung | 20:59.00 | 110 | ||
| 5) Brooke Coleman | 21:03.00 | 118 | ||
| Average Time: 20:27.20 Total Time: 1:42:16.00 1-5 Split: 1:31.00 | ||||
| 6) Nadine Almasri | 22:27.70 | 205 | ||
| 7) Sydney Wasson | 22:41.00 | 218 | ||
| 11 | Eagle Valley High School (CO) | 416 | ||
| 1) Joslin Blair | 18:19.00 | 5 | ||
| 2) Avery Doan | 18:41.85 | 13 | ||
| 3) Alissa Barry | 20:40.00 | 92 | ||
| 4) Katy Grewe | 21:18.02 | 136 | ||
| 5) Janeth Chavez | 21:48.94 | 170 | ||
| Average Time: 20:09.56 Total Time: 1:40:47.81 1-5 Split: 3:29.94 | ||||
| 6) Maddlyne Schenck | 22:06.00 | 188 | ||
| 7) Jenna Applegate | 23:27.06 | 264 | ||
| 12 | Niwot High School (CO) | 418 | ||
| 1) Maggie Smith | 19:07.00 | 19 | ||
| 2) Joelle McDonald | 19:21.00 | 29 | ||
| 3) Jeri Wilcox | 20:18.00 | 73 | ||
| 4) Caitlin Hyers | 21:21.00 | 140 | ||
| 5) Elise Gillett | 21:36.00 | 157 | ||
| Average Time: 20:20.60 Total Time: 1:41:43.00 1-5 Split: 2:29.00 | ||||
| 6) Grace Martinson | 21:46.00 | 163 | ||
| 7) Claire Jepson | 21:53.80 | 176 | ||
| 13 | Windsor High School (CO) | 464 | ||
| 1) Morgan Hykes | 19:27.00 | 32 | ||
| 2) Kyndel Anderson | 20:00.00 | 57 | ||
| 3) Brooke Shrader | 20:02.00 | 61 | ||
| 4) Madalyn Younger | 21:22.00 | 141 | ||
| 5) Evelyn Moyer | 21:52.74 | 173 | ||
| Average Time: 20:32.75 Total Time: 1:42:43.74 1-5 Split: 2:25.74 | ||||
| 6) Shelbie Jones | 22:16.00 | 197 | ||
| 7) Ansley Kary | 22:20.00 | 202 | ||
| 14 | Cheyenne Mountain High School (CO) | 476 | ||
| 1) Anna Warmack | 19:42.00 | 36 | ||
| 2) Jensen Enterman | 19:55.00 | 52 | ||
| 3) Emily Chaston | 19:57.00 | 54 | ||
| 4) Sedona Ray | 21:43.90 | 160 | ||
| 5) Anneliese Markus | 21:52.90 | 174 | ||
| Average Time: 20:38.16 Total Time: 1:43:10.80 1-5 Split: 2:10.90 | ||||
| 6) Anya Joyce | 21:54.90 | 179 | ||
| 7) Ashley Alvarado | 21:57.00 | 180 | ||
| 15 | Glenwood Springs High School (CO) | 484 | ||
| 1) Erica Diemoz | 19:50.65 | 48 | ||
| 2) Sedona Kellogg | 20:37.21 | 89 | ||
| 3) Claudia Hirons | 20:42.68 | 95 | ||
| 4) Elle Murphy | 21:03.47 | 120 | ||
| 5) Emily Worline | 21:15.50 | 132 | ||
| Average Time: 20:41.90 Total Time: 1:43:29.51 1-5 Split: 1:24.85 | ||||
| 6) Payton Bonsack | 21:15.78 | 133 | ||
| 7) Serena Richardson | 21:30.77 | 151 | ||
If you were paying attention last fall, it will not shock you in the least to see Battle Mountain, Air Academy, and Durango heading up this analysis. Battle Mountain and Air Academy were established solid teams, and Durango became a very solid team over the course of the season.
Click on Next to view the rankings by 1600 times from this spring.