Kim Hansen leads a very capable Estes Park team into the post-season meets. Photo by Alan Versaw.
2A Region 1
The region is deep in complete teams and should therefore advance three teams to state. Top-ranked Nederland ranks as the next-best thing to a sure thing and should take one of those team qualifiers to state.
Lutheran-Parker and Wiggins are looking like the next strongest teams in the region, but, based on last year's experience, no team out of this region should be making their hotel reservations at state too hastily.
Assuming she will be running, Shining Mountain's Birdie Hutton is a very strong candidate for an individual berth to state.
2A Region 2
This was an extremely tough regional last year, but maybe just a little bit more open to teams slipping through to state this year.
Nevertheless, it appears there will be only two team qualifiers to state out of this region, with a faint hope for a third. At this moment, two schools from the Colorado Springs area, Fountain Valley and Vanguard, have the inside track to claiming those slots. Figure, however, that each of Kiowa, Rocky Ford, and Limon would like to have a say in the matter.
Because of the likelihood of only two teams qualifying for state in the conventional manner, this region is wide open to qualifying another team on the basis of individual qualifications. At this moment, that plum could be Limon's for the picking as the Badgers bring to the meet the third runner with the best time so far this season.
2A Region 3
It's possible there are only three complete teams in this region. If that is the case, only one will qualify to state as a team, and Sargent has a huge leg up on the competition for that honor.
But, the tiny number of competitors in this region means that both other complete teams (again, assuming the region ends up with only three complete teams) have a strong possibility of advancing to state on individual qualifiers. Those two teams would be Del Norte and Center.
Unless hobbled by simultaneous cases of stress fractures and H1N1, Custer County's Valerie Stark and Creede's Kelly Lamb figure to go to state as individuals. Both belong in the field.
2A Region 4
This one boasts the most anticipated regional matchup in all of 2A--boys or girls. Mancos and Crested Butte have been ranked 2-3 for the entire season and finally get to square off up in Aspen before, in all probability, taking it to Fort Collins for another round. It should be fun--twice.
There is no realistic hope that this region will send more than two teams to state, but there is good reason to believe one or two of the remaining three potential complete teams could advance to state on individual qualifiers. Rachel Hampton of Telluride is a very strong candidate to advance to state, but Ouray appears to have the best shot of getting a team of three individuals to state.
3A Region 1
"Close" is the word to describe this region. Barely a dime's worth of difference separates Pagosa Springs, Bayfield, Gunnison, Aspen, and Hotchkiss. The bad news? At least one of these teams will likely stay home from state as the region has only a slight hope of advancing more than four teams to state. In this region, as in no other, it's a case of show up to race or go home.
None of the above teams will get any help from the category of individual qualifiers. Brandi Krieg of Grand Valley, Chiara Del Piccolo of Basalt, and Diana Miller of Centauri, plus a few others, should make the individual qualifier slots exceedingly tough to come by. In fact, the top five teams may only account for as few as seven or eight of the first 15 individual places. Several teams in this region have one or two very solid runners, but aren't quite to the level four deep that they are likely to topple the strongest programs in the region.
Be on the watch for a photo finish or two in this one.
3A Region 2
"Loaded" is the word to describe this region. All season long, TCA, Salida, and Discovery Canyon have held down three of the top four spots in the 3A girls rankings. The three powers converge in a single regional meet. Barring disaster, each of the three should advance to state, and the region will likely have four teams qualifying to state.
Lamar and Colorado Springs Christian both have eyes seriously set on qualifying a team to state. Both need to come up big.
It's within the realm of possibility that the top 15 individual places in this region will be taken solely by teams advancing to state, but it's a slightly more likely scenario that one to three positions will be swept up by individuals not from qualifying teams.
3A Region 3
Holy Family has been quietly having a very nice season. The regional meet should provide a worthy showcase for this underappreciated team. They probably don't need a super race to advance to state, but it certainly wouldn't hurt team confidence to post a big result going into state.
With only four state slots to go around in the region, Platte Canyon, Legend, and Kent Denver appear to be next in line. Based on the results of this weekend's Frontier League meet, Middle Park is in line for an opportunity as well.
Individual slots to state will be tough to come by as Holy Family and Platte Canyon figure to have most of the jerseys in the top 10, but there is enough wiggle room in the region that a couple of particularly strong individual efforts should be rewarded with trips to state.
3A Region 4
Five team slots to state--maybe. Estes Park and Brush have staked claims to two of the slots but still have to earn their trips with a qualifying race performance. Nobody gives either school much of a chance to miss, however.
Peak to Peak was last year's third place team at state. While they took a couple of hits to graduation, they seem to be on their way back to the dance this year. Erie, Eaton, and Lyons follow in close order behind them.
It's almost certain that the region will see at least one or two individual qualifiers taking high places in the regional race. Beth Jones of Eaton and Melissa Roberts of Lyons are both on the bubble so far as team qualification goes, but figure to make it even if their teams don't. If both Eaton and Lyons make it as teams, some other team won't and that would likely produce a high "replacement" individual qualifier.