Unlike some other competitors at this weekend's state meet, Ty Williams gained some experience with adverse conditions at his regional meet. Photo by Diane Krieg.
2 to Watch in 2A
The top two attractions in the 2A races should be the individual races. While nobody is handing the trophies to Rocky Ford and Nederland, both come in as substantial favorites. What seems much more in doubt is the outcome of the individual races.
In the boys' race, Ty Williams of Telluride (Williams actually attends Norwood HS, but runs for Telluride since Norwood has no cross country program) likely comes in as the favorite, but not a prohibitive favorite. Eric Lewis of Mancos, Joel Villagomez of Center, Michael Estrada of Rocky Ford, and Jeremiah Evangelista of The Vanguard each figure to be among the front runners as well. Can anyone bust this thing open or will it come down to the wire like last year's 2A boys contest did?
On the girls side, the individual title figures to come down to between Erin Kelly of Crested Butte and Kelley Robinson of Nederland, with Chelsea Kilgore of The Vanguard figuring as a dark horse to crash the party. Erin Kelly has scarcely been tested all season. Kelley Robinson hasn't quite matched her level of domination from last season, but is still a dangerous competitor.
3 to Watch in 3A
Sam Berggren is back. Anyone who saw last year's state race understands why she makes the 3A watch list just by virtue of being back in competition. Can she reprise the run that gave her the third-best time overall in all classifications and pushed Kaitlin Hanenburg to the limit?
The 3A boys team race figures to be a struggle worth watching as well. By performances to date, Faith Christian comes in as a little bit of a favorite. Behind the Eagles, though, is massed a glut of contenders. Gunnison came out of their regional race looking the best they've looked all season. Colorado Academy and Faith Christian have been waging see-saw battles all throughout the last two seasons. The Classical Academy and Salida have the horsepower to make a run at it. And, between all these teams, there is a ton of state meet experience. Look for this one to go to the wire.
Amos Bowen takes it out hard early in the regional race with Gabe Toepel and Bryan DeVore trailing. Photo by Fred DeVore.
Ryan Poland vs. Amos Bowen. What will prevail? The patience of Poland or the burst of Bowen? If this one goes to form, look for Bowen to take it out strong early and Poland to try to maintain contact. Last year, the take-it-out-hard strategy of DeMoor worked. Will that strategy be used again? If so, will it succeed? Only Saturday can answer that question.
4 to Watch in 4A
Moffat County's Maddy Jourgensen. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Ask 10 knowledgeable cross country fans, "Who will win the 4A girls race?" Probably eight will tell you Allie Parks of Greeley West. While acknowledging that Allie Parks is definitely in the mix, my hunch is that there are at least five or so more capable of winning this thing. On that list would be Bryn Haebe (if healthy), Nikki DeSouchet, Becky Schmitt, and Maddy Jourgensen. Maybe one or two others. Of these, Jourgensen probably gets the least ink. It's sometimes difficult to make a name for yourself when you live in the media center of Craig, Colorado, and run most of your races on tougher courses. This one should be a great race.
Can Scott Fauble finish off his undefeated season? It should take just over 15 minutes from the time the gun goes off to answer this question. If anyone is going to stop him, that would be the time he needs to figure he can beat.
Can Cheyenne Mountain pull off the sweep? Cheyenne Mountain has won state championships a few times before and been close many more times. They've never swept. Don't try to tell me the thought hasn't crossed anyone's mind on that team.
As good as the 4A girls individual race figures to be, the team race just might be even better. Evergreen has enjoyed the dominant season, but there are a few teams coming around at just the right time to make this one more interesting than anyone figured it would be. Alamosa needs a little lift at #5 and they could be right there. Thompson Valley shocked the 4A Region 2 world last Thursday and figures to be ready to mix it up on Saturday. Cheyenne Mountain (see above) had a very strong showing at their regional. Greeley Central just might be stinging from the wake-up call delivered by Thompson Valley at the regional meet.
5 to Watch in 5A
What race tactics will the contenders for the 5A boys crown use? Regis Jesuit comes in as the favorite and they are a patient team. They don't break for the front and try to hang on. Meet results from the entire season suggest that it's a pretty successful strategy for them. Will other teams roll the dice with their 4 and 5 runners and hope they can gain an edge on Regis? Will they stalk the guys in the white shirts and red shorts and try to outkick them at the end? Or will they look to run as if Regis doesn't exist and let results fall where they may?
Can anyone hang with Walter Schafer? So far this season, only Scott Fauble has done that successfully. But, it's almost a given somebody will try. The go-for-the-win-or-die-trying mentality tends to run deep in a lot of stronger distance runners, so don't be surprised to see someone riding Schafer's heels deep into the race.
Speaking of hanging with, can anyone hang with the top five of the Fort Collins girls? Almost all season long, Fort Collins has given up small points at #1 and #2 (although Rachel Viger did bring that trend to a screeching halt at the regional race) and taken back large points at #3, #4, and #5. Generally speaking, that kind of give-and-take works very nicely for winning meets.
What can Kelsey Lakowske run at state? Lakowske has been challenged late in a race exactly once all season. Unless Eleanor Fulton can give her a test, whatever Lakowske does, she is likely to have to do on her own. What are her limits on an adrenaline-laced day like state?
How far back have the Cherry Creek girls come? Ever since Clare Gallagher has been back in uniform, the Bruins have been hitting on all cylinders. This is a team that seems to believe they can do great things.
Unlike some other competitors at this weekend's state meet, Ty Williams gained some experience with adverse conditions at his regional meet. Photo by Diane Krieg.