It's impossible to write about the 4A Colorado State Championships without mentioning Niwot.
And that's across every race - individual, and team.
While the 4A races might seem heavy on one team, one thing spectators might want to pay attention to is the girl's team race, because Niwot - who is the No. 2 team in the country - is on pace to make history - again.
But we'll come back to that...
Editor's Note: We'll be live-streaming the finish line: WATCH LIVE!
Individuals
In the beginning of the season I posed the question of: Can Niwot score 15 points at State? While their performances over the past month have brought that question up again, one runner has perhaps answered it in her own way.
If there's any runner who can break into Niwot's top-five, it's Ella Hagen.
And that's not just break into the top-five, that's win the state title.
Hagen has run herself onto a new level this fall. The Summit sophomore has raced eight times this season, and tallied four wins - three of her last three. Additionally she's never finished worse than second - that's some legit consistency.
Eight races - four wins, four runner-up finishes.
Her biggest race to date was her runner-up finish at the Liberty Bell Cross Country Invitational, where she finished second to 5A star Emma Stutzman, running 16:45. At the time it was a US No. 2. (Currently it's a US No. 3.)
Hagen has been undefeated against 4A competition this fall, making her the favorite heading to Colorado Springs this Saturday.
But - she'll definitely have company...
The only question in terms of that company, is who from Niwot.
They've had an individual win this title three of the last four years.
Niwot has run a variety of rosters this fall, and only in the last few weeks have we seen perhaps their A-Squad. Even then, they've had a different No. 1 runner almost every week.
No one runner has led them throughout the season, making this one a bit more challenging to read.
But, if we look at the last month or so of racing, we can see an average of sorts. And on that note, freshman Addison Ritzenhein is definitely in the mix.
She's coming off a victory - her first - at the Colorado 4A Region 3 Cross Country. While she's fourth on the team in terms of personal bests (17:49), she's run within their top-two three times. And if you've been paying attention this season, you'll notice her very gradual rise on the team.
Another Niwot runner in the mix is likely to be sophomore Bella Nelson. She led the squad twice this season, and owns a 17:47 season-best from her victory at the Longs Peak League Meet.
Madison Shults owns the team's fastest PR this season - a 17:36 clocking from Desert Twilight, which she led the team at. The time was just in front of Mia Prok's 17:39 from the same meet. Add that Prok was the 2020 State runner-up.
So, as you can easily see, Niwot's insane depth (hey - they are one of the best - if not the best - squads in the country...) gives them a variety of options of who can win the state title. Really, it'll just come down to has their best race Saturday...
Teams
Can Niwot make history by scoring less-than 20 points?
Last year they threw down the most-dominant team victory in Colorado history with their 20-point tally.
This year they look even stronger than ever.
We're not going to pretend there will be a team battle here, because as mentioned above, Niwot has multiple runners who could take the individual race, ergo the team race appears to be is theirs.
The only real question is how many points do they tally?
If we're looking at season PRs, then Niwot is close to that 20-point tally. But then again, Niwot ran a variety of different rosters all season long, so it's hard to tell.
Either way, they've got a crazy tight-pack - they went 1-8 at the Colorado 4A Region 3 Cross Country with a 1-5 split of just 28-seconds.
Another question, perhaps, is how much fire Niwot actually brings to Colorado Springs - with being as good as they are this year, it's undeniable that they have post-season ambitions. Meaning, State would be a benchmark for a bigger race in five weeks...
So, let's look at the real team race - the one for second.
Battle Mountain has pieced together some great races as of late, including a stellar victory at the Colorado 4A Region 1 Cross Country, where they tallied 35 points, and put four in the top-seven, and five in the top-16.
While Niwot looks like a gimme to take the team title, Battle Mountains looks to have a very strong hold on that No. 2 spot, particularly with such a strong top-four, and a solid six.
Likewise, Palmer and Durango could sneak in their if everyone has a great day Saturday.
The girl's 4A race is scheduled for 1 p.m.
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