Garrett Coles leads a University team looking for a slot to state in 3A Region 4. Photo by Alan Versaw.
It's the time of year when everyone is wondering how many teams will make it out of their region to the state meet. This article, and those that accompany it for other classifications, will attempt to provide a preliminary answer that question.
One one level, the answer is easy: simply multiply the number of complete teams that finish your regional race by 0.4. Then round that number up if the decimal portion is .5 or higher and round down if the decimal portion is less than .5. See? Simple!
Or maybe not so simple. How in the world do you forecast how many complete teams will finish your regional race. Prior to the last runner crossing the finish line, you can't say with certainty how many complete teams will finish in your region.
BUT, you can look at the number of schools in each region and get an educated guess at how many teams will qualify for state. And that's what the rest of this article is about.
3A Region 1
The western slope region, slightly reconfigured this year, is as strong as it has been in years. That will make competition for the state slots a little more intense this year. Here is the count of schools that should be able to finish the regional race with complete teams:
Girls (12) - Hotchkiss, Aspen, Gunnison, Centauri, Buena Vista, Pagosa Springs, Rifle, Bayfield, Coal Ridge, Lake County, Grand Valley, Basalt
Boys (10) - Gunnison, Basalt, Aspen, Rifle, Hotchkiss, Buena Vista, Pagosa Springs, Bayfield, Lake County, Olathe
The boys can drop one team and still send four to state. As the girls stand now, five teams will advance to state, but that requires that none of the complete teams listed above drop out of the picture. If even one drops out of the picture, this region is down to sending four girls' teams to state.
3A Region 2
A small region, but one loaded with teams that figure to be big contenders at state. Competition for the last slots to state could become tight:
Girls (9) - TCA, Salida, Lamar, Alamosa, St. Mary's, CSCS, La Junta, Florence, Manitou Springs
Boys (11) - Alamosa, TCA, Salida, Lamar, CSCS, St. Mary's, La Junta, Manitou Springs, Ellicott, Florence, James Irwin
The girls are on the bubble. One team drops and it's down to three state qualifiers from this region. And don't count on any help in this region (or any other region) via backdooring teams into state via individual qualifiers. The boys look fairly secure for sending four teams to state.
3A Region 3
There are a lot of closely matched teams in this region:
Boys (12) - Peak to Peak, Holy Family, Clear Creek, Faith Christian, Colorado Academy, Sheridan, Platte Canyon, Machebeuf, Kent Denver, DSST, The Academy, Arrupe Jesuit
Girls (13) - Kent Denver, Faith Christian, Holy Family, Middle Park, Clear Creek, Colorado Academy, Machebeuf, DSST, Platte Canyon, The Academy, Peak to Peak, Saint Mary's Academy, Arrupe Jesuit
The boys sit on the bubble with five teams and no margin if a complete team doesn't finish. The girls should be able to send five teams to state even if one complete team drops.
3A Region 4
If 3A Region 2 is the toughest boys region to advance from, this one is likely the toughest girls region to advance from:
Boys (11) - Eaton, University, Jefferson Academy, Frontier Academy, Estes Park, Brush, Platte Valley, Berthoud, Weld Central, Strasburg, Mead
Girls (10) - Berthoud, Estes Park, Brush, Frontier Academy, Strasburg, University, Platte Valley, Eaton, Jefferson Academy, Weld Central
Fortunately, the girls region has a margin of error of one team before it drops to three qualifiers. The boys seem to be safely staring down four qualifiers.
Adding up the qualifying teams gives us an expection of as many as 18 girls teams at state and as many as 17 boys teams at state, plus individual qualifiers. That puts the expected field size at 110 to 120 runners each.
If you'd like to check out on your own how the teams in your region stack up, click on Rankings/High School Boys (or Girls) Teams. Then go to Advanced Parameters and select your region to filter the rankings. Disclaimer: The MileSplit rankings are based on scoring five and based on performances at any point in the season. 3A, obviously, doesn't score five runners, so you have to be a little discerning about how you use the team rankings. Also, people who had an early-season mark may not necessarily still be running with a thier team. In most cases, they will still be with the team but injuries and dropouts are a part of sport.