Ty Williams won the 2A cross country title last fall and figures to be the guy to beat again this fall. Photo by Alan Versaw.
There is no way that last fall's cross country season and this spring's track and field season tell you everything there is to know about this fall's cross country season. But, we can learn a great deal about what to look for and where by examing the results of these past two seasons. In this article, I've attempted a summary of that information. We'll start by taking a look at the top several returning 2A times from last fall's state cross country meet.
1 Ty Williams JR Telluride 16:48.50 1
4 Micah Tate JR Pikes Peak Christian 17:51.90 --
5 Ian Boucher FR Crested Butte Community 17:52.60 --
8 Nathan Loomis SO Telluride 17:57.20 8
9 Sean Flynn JR Lyons 18:01.70 9
10 Kyle Becker JR Alexander Dawson 18:04.41 10
13 Kaleb Stephens JR Del Norte 18:27.80 13
15 Ryan Boucher SO Lyons 18:40.80 15
17 William Scoggins SO Rangely 18:43.30 17
19 Sam Crowley SO Lyons 18:57.60 19
20 Jose Montes SO Center 18:57.80 20
21 Rodrigo Baeza SO Fountain Valley 18:57.80 21
22 Cord Tiley JR Creede 19:01.90 --
24 Ryan Howarth JR Alexander Dawson 19:09.50 24
26 Ian Hinderman FR Nederland 19:11.00 26
28 Shawn Beiriger SO Del Norte 19:15.60 28
30 Jake Rothman JR Alexander Dawson 19:16.11 30
Of these, it can be safely said that at least Rodrigo Baeza and Jake Rothman had state results well below what their seasons' performances would have indicated.
Next, we will peer into the top 3200 performances for 2A athletes for the season just completed. Note that Micah Tate was 1A in track and field, but has been included below because cross country has no 1A classification. Also, Jake Rothman ran track for 4A Centaurus, presumably because Alexander Dawson has no track and field program and has also been included. A ranked list of those performances looks like this:
1. 9:30.88 Ty Williams Telluride High School 2012
2. 10:09.06 Chris Lessard Custer County High School 2012
3. 10:17.00 Ian Boucher Crested Butte Community School 2014
4. 10:18.41 James Marquardt Denver Lutheran High School 2013
5. 10:18.98 Rodrigo Baeza Fountain Valley School of Colorado 2013
6. 10:34.34 Nathan Loomis Telluride High School 2013
7. 10:34.81 Forrest Smith Crested Butte Community School
10:36.06 Micah Tate Pikes Peak Christian 2012
8. 10:38.34 Trevor Walters Paonia High School 2012
10:38.68 Jake Rothman Alexander Dawson 2012
9. 10:41.26 William Scoggins Rangely High School 2013
10. 10:41.43 Sam Crowley Lyons High School 2013
11. 10:44.88 Jason Sturgis Paonia High School 2014
12. 10:45.16 Jake Boesch Meeker High School 2014
13. 10:49.79 Sean Flynn Lyons High School 2012
14. 10:50.69 Ryan Ernst Wiggins High School 2013
15. 10:55.52 Cameron Bowman Telluride High School 2013
16. 11:07.92 Jose Montes Center High School 2013
17. 11:10.07 Ty Koenig Sanford High School 2013
18. 11:18.61 Losha Frihauf Wiggins High School 2012
19. 11:26.51 Kaleb Stephens Del Norte High School 2012
From these two tables, we try to construct a guess at a top-10 list of prospects for the 2A boys cross country season coming up this fall.
1. Ty Williams - When you're at the top of both lists, and not by any narrow margin, it's tough to argue that you're anything other than "the hunted." That will be the burden Williams carries into this coming season.
2. Ian Boucher - The sophomore-to-be from Crested Butte has been on a steep curve of improvement. Add to that fact Crested Butte's history of developing its distance runners well, and it's easy to forecast a solid season for Boucher.
3. Chris Lessard - Lessard's ranking would depend on whether or not he's out for cross country. Custer County has a cross country team, but Lessard wasn't part of it last fall. Custer County also has a football team, so there are other things to do in Westcliffe/Silvercliffe in the fall. In any case, if Lessard is running cross country, his track season suggests pretty strongly that the senior will be one to contend with. If I was the XC coach at Custer County I'd be talking to this young man about his fall season right about now.
4. Rodrigo Baeza - Baeza's cross country season was on a steady upward trajectory until state. State was unkind to Baeza. Track suggests that he has things back together again.
5. James Marquardt - Marquardt is even more of a mystery than Lessard. Like Lessard, he didn't run cross country in the fall. Unlike Lessard, his school has closed and where he ends up in the fall--even if he runs cross country--is anyone's guess. If he ends up as part of the consolidation at Lutheran-Parker, he definitely could be part of 2A cross country, but all of this is so much guesswork at this point.
6. Micah Tate - Tate ran in 1A this spring and, as such, may have suffered a little from a lack of as strong of competition as many other 2A cross country prospects enjoyed. Pikes Peak Christian did compete in several large meets, but it's ultimately not the same when you know you're facing 1A competition at state.
7. Nathan Loomis - One big advantage Loomis brings into the fall is that he's part of Telluride's program. It's a proven program and there's bound to be ample intrasquad competition. Loomis showed some upside in track, and figures to show more of the same in the fall.
8. Forrest Smith - Smith is yet another of the "didn't run cross country last fall" group. Crested Butte plays soccer and, so, Smith may be hiding out on that team in the fall. Still, if he runs cross country this fall, Crested Butte is another proven program and it's reasonable to expect Smith would have a solid cross country season.
Correction [06/10]: A sharp-eyed reader pointed out what I missed: Forrest Smith did run in the state meet last fall, finishing 31st in 19:22.50. So, no more soccer theories for this young man. He rose on the ladder in track this spring and should figure among the 2A contenders this fall.
9. Jake Rothman - Largely on the strength of Rothman's cross country season last fall up until his finish at state, you have to give him a place on this list. His 3200 times from this spring were decent but not spectacular. It isn't always easy, however, sliding in and running for another school's program.
10. Kyle Becker - Becker did not run track this spring, and that often portends poorly for the cross country season in the fall. Becker was a legitimate 2A talent last fall, however, and goes into this fall with the benefit of the doubt.
Filling out the list (in part because of uncertainties in the list above):
11. William Scoggins - Scoggins got consistently better during the cross country season last fall. He had a solid season in track this spring. Rangely ranks as the kings of travel in 2A cross country, however, and we'll see if that is an obstacle to overcome.
12. Sam Crowley - It would appear that Crowley may have overtaken teammate Sean Flynn sometime between October and May. This fall will better reveal the truth of that situation, however.
13. Ryan Boucher - I would hazard a guess that this young man got bigger between October and May. Clearly, he's a better 400 meter guy than long distance guy, but if he's back out for cross country in the fall, he's the type of kid you expect to produce simply because he's such a good athlete.
Note on Trevor Walters: Paonia has no cross country team, so Walters runs for 3A Hotchkiss in the fall. The same would be true for Jason Sturgis.