Where Were Colorado's Top Senior Girls In 2013?

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Michelle Renner is one of a very small number of this year's top senior girls who can readily be found in 8th grade results from 2013.

The idea of this article is simple. Take the top 100 senior girls (by time) at this year's state cross country meet and then look back. How many were on the radar screen as 8th graders--either through middle school state or USATF Junior Olympics state competition.

Then, following the table of performances for these athletes, we'll draw some inferences about what the table suggests to us about the senior class of girls for 2021.

First, though, here is the table of the top 100 girls at the state meet this fall and then what their results, if any, were at middle school state cross country for 2013 and the USATF Colorado Junior Olympic meet for 2013.


Athlete State XC 2017 MS State 2013 USATF State 2013
Elizabeth Constien 18:03.90
Claudia Burgess 18:16.60
Ivy Gonzales 18:20.30 14:43.00 (26)
Stephanie Carrasco 18:21.50
Addi Iken 18:29.30
Kyla Ramsey 18:33.90
Lina Corrales 18:47.20 16:57.95 (11)
Hannah Ellis 18:54.60
Isabella Bowland 18:54.90
Katie Doucette 18:55.70
Callin Naddy 18:56.80 16:18.53 (4)
Liz Hogan 18:59.40
Claire Pauley 19:01.80
Hannah McReavy 19:02.50
Alex Raichart 19:06.90
Michelle Renner 19:08.50 14:35.00 (22)
Soleil Gaylord 19:09.00 14:21.00 (16) 16:26.11 (6)
Laura Thompson 19:11.10
Luna Slater 19:11.70
Madison Mooney 19:13.20
Katelyn Mitchem 19:16.90
McKenzie Elliott 19:22.30 15:24.00 (48) 17:38.57 (16)
Morgan Conn 19:24.10
Emily Mitchem 19:24.60
Lauren Zoe Baker 19:28.60
Megan Koch 19:29.00
Vanessa Kort 19:29.30
Sarah Davidson 19:29.80
Sophia Maeda 19:31.20
Hannah Mae Gigstad 19:33.40
Civianna Gallegos 19:39.00
Dasha Kuznetsova 19:39.50
Chloe Cassens 19:42.40 15:18.00 (44)
Lauren Neugeboren 19:42.80
Hannah Brown 19:43.80
Maria O'Neal 19:46.00
Abby Scott 19:48.00
Rebecca Walton 19:49.70 15:07.00 (35)
Klara Aspelin 19:50.60
Ivory Espinoza 19:51.30
Bailee Stones 19:52.00
Sydney Petersen 19:55.00
Nicole Phaneuf 19:56.10
Payton Grove 19:56.20 15:03.00 (33)
Megan Bamford 19:57.90
Lauren McKenna 19:58.10
Emma Schaefer 19:58.20
Tomah Whitney 19:59.80
Caroline Robbins 19:59.90
Isabel Anema 20:01.30
Erin Kraus 20:01.40
Skylar Lodice 20:03.00
Sarah Wagler 20:03.60
Amber Valdez 20:04.90
Sydney Teslow 20:04.90
Taylor Santangelo 20:07.90
Sarah Bassett 20:09.10
Maria Geesaman 20:09.80
Taylor Dutton 20:12.20 14:34.00 (21)
Anna Ponzio 20:15.90
Maia Shore 20:16.50
Madeleine Bonneau 20:16.70
Lauren Vilims 20:19.40
Nell Salzman 20:20.90
Kika Napierkowski 20:21.40
Ana Muehlbauer 20:22.10
Jeri Wilcox 20:25.40
Lillian Baxter 20:27.50
Tara Sowards 20:27.60
Lauren Fossel 20:29.20
Isabelle Hren 20:29.60 15:55.00 (78)
Sophia Braza 20:31.60 17:31.00 (172)
Clara Krause 20:32.00
Sadie Cotton 20:32.80
Laurel Kruger 20:36.40
Abby Hein 20:36.90
Maci Ames 20:37.60
My-Yen Nguyen 20:41.30
Cheney Singer 20:41.70 15:17.00 (43)
Lucy Schroeder 20:42.70
Olivia Fink 20:44.00
Elizabeth Moore 20:44.50
Brittany Lopez 20:50.10
Samantha Spindler 20:50.40
Carly Robinson 20:51.40
Erin Percy 20:53.90 15:44.00 (64) 17:53.59 (20)
Hannah Burkett 20:56.70
Maricel Mequi 20:59.10
Kristina Schreiber 21:02.10
Elsa Russell 21:02.30
Chloe Cortes 21:06.70
Elyse Bartelmey 21:07.80
Brooke Hillman 21:09.10
Samantha O'Brien 21:14.90
Kendra Eickleberry 21:16.10
Sedona Ray 21:20.40
Payton Corah 21:20.50
Chloe Stensland 21:20.90
Isabelle Row 21:30.80
Jane Marolt 21:34.10

What we learn from this, then, is that only a small percentage of this year's top senior runners were on the radar screen in even remote sorts of ways in 2013. And, several of those who were on the radar screen in 2013 aren't around any longer as top-level cross country athletes.

So, as interesting as it might be to project into the next four years from middle school meet performances, there's not much reason to think we have a very meaningful part of the picture when we do that. It is probably the case that more and more girls each year are running in the middle school state meet, but the growth is not (yet) such that we can make credible guesses about the top girls in the incoming freshman class based on middle school state and USATF state meet results alone. 

Short moral to the story: Don't count your chickens before they hatch.


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