Following two consecutives years of disappointment at state, Sam Yeager leads Faith Christian in the quest to discover if three really is a charm. Photo by Alan Versaw.
It's now officially August. Within five weeks, the first weekend of racing will be in the books. It must be time to find a pencil and paper and start writing previews.
This year, we'll start with 3A. Since the 3A previews are the most difficult for me to try to write in an objective fashion, I get the worst part over by doing them first.
Individually, this one is wide open. Ryan Poland and Amos Bowen won't be dominating the field this fall. That honor will fall to someone else. Standing at the front of the line for that honor are Josh Noriega (Salida), Josh Simkins (The Classical Academy), Lukas Garcia (Salida), and Conner Roper (Basalt). Each returns off a top-ten finish from last year's state meet. If last spring's state track results mean anything, then Sam Yeager of Faith Christian has also promoted himself onto this list. Also based on state track results, Evan Fortney and John Cusick have the potential to join this group if their off-season progression has continued on pace.
Josh Noriega is the top returner from last fall's state meet. Noriega is a grinder who excels in longer races. The 5K distance and uneven terrain of cross country seem ideally suited to his style.
Josh Simkins is a finisher who just missed state track titles in both the 1600 and 3200. Lukas Garcia ran in Noriega's shadow all last fall, but may be capable of breaking out of that shadow this fall. Conner Roper enjoyed a lot of time out in front of last year's race and has to be thinking it would be nice to be out front at the end rather than the beginning. Sam Yeager established himself with a solid 800 at the state meet. While Yeager's strength may lie in shorter distances, don't be hasty to count him out in cross country.
Probably nobody in Salida wants to hear me say this, but when you graduate only your third runner off a state championship team, that more or less puts you into the favorite's seat entering the next campaign. The Spartans are smart, well-coached, and have the necessary talent up front to repeat. The big need for Salida will be to solidify positions three through six.
Last year's runner-up, The Classical Academy, looks good on paper as well. Three seniors off of last year's state team have graduated, but there is no shortage of reinforcements in position to step up. Simkins is the clear leader of the pack, but a solid crew of juniors will likely make up many of the remaining positions on the team, and competition will be keen for each of those positions.
Faith Christian, hungry and probably a little chapped over disappointing finishes the last two years, returns four of its top five. Once again, the Eagles have the look of a contender and have established a pattern of testing themselves extensively against larger school competition early in the season.
Colorado Academy took big hits to graduation at positions one and three, but the Mustangs have tasted success and can probably find their way back into contention.
If you're looking for a sleeper, that role would fall to Gunnison. The top three are very solid, though state results from last year suggest a need of backfilling some positions beyond that point. The Cowboys, training at higher altitude than the rest of the 3A contenders, may be in a nice position to benefit from a more rolling state cross country course than in previous years.
An intriguing possibility centers around the arrival of Alamosa from 4A. Although Alamosa was not a 4A factor at 24th place last fall, the Mean Moose was a young team last fall and probably underperformed a little at state. Brothers Chad and Gavin Palmer may stir the order of things up a little in 3A.
3A Notes: Rumor has it that Monte Vista has dropped its cross country program which, given the history of the program, is sad news--if true. Within the last five years, the Pirates were a third-place team at state. Troy Phillips returns to Platte Canyon to take over the head coaching duties for the Huskies. Economic hard times are bound to limit travel for some programs. This may mean that one or two emerging programs can "hide in the bushes" a little longer than would have been possible in previous years. There is certainly ample opportunity for teams with aspirations to rise within the 3A ranks. In most regions, numerous slots to the state meet appear to be wide open for teams ready to sieze that opportunity. And, the substantial gap after seventh place last fall speaks volumes about the kind of opportunity open for rising programs.