Saturday will be bittersweet for these three young women. Marci Witczak, Maddie Alm, and Mariel Fulton will toe the line with their high school teammates for one final race. Photos by Alan Versaw.
So far, I've stumbled across two good things about not qualifying for NXN. One, I didn't have to hold practice in the 40 mph winds and 25 degree temps on Monday. Two, I feel a lot more freedom to talk unguardedly about the races.
So, let's hazard a few unguarded opinions about Saturday's races...
Since ladies always go first, we'll change things up a bit and start with the boys this time.
The top two individual entries from the SW both come from Colorado: Spencer Wenck and Danny Carney. If they can hold their relative placing from Nike Cross Regionals into Nike Cross Nationals, both are potential top 20 finishers at NXN. That would be a sweet result to witness, but this field is outstanding; it should prove to be the finest boys field ever to respond to the NXN starter's pistol.
As strong as the Southwest was from a team perspective, it was probably not quite as strong from an individual perspective (and Billy Orman opting out for FLW weakens the SW entry a little as well). Top twenty finishes for Wenck and Carney, particularly if the course is especially soggy on Saturday morning, would represent huge accomplishments.
But, if you've watched Wenck and Carney at all this season, you're not discounting the possibility.
Team-wise, we saw just how good a boys team can be at NXN-SW. American Fork wasted the competition on Toka Sticks Golf Course. And American Fork may not be the best team in the nation; there is a lot of collective holding of breath over which team will prevail come Saturday. The NXN boys field doesn't appear to be the same extremely balanced affair that it was last year. Conventional wisdom has Arcadia (CA) and American Fork as big favorites with a couple of other teams potentially causing problems if everything goes right on the day of the big race.
How good of a team is Fort Collins? Very good, but not American Fork or Arcadia kind of good. Maybe next year.
For this year, a top ten showing would be a worthy goal. If Coach Suppes is (privately) aiming for something higher than that with his boys, I salute that. I've learned not to lightly dismiss any flag that Coach Suppes raises. From where I sit, however, top ten would be an outstanding result--all the more so for a team setting foot on the Portland Meadows course for the first time. It helps that Coach Suppes has coached on this course previously, but there will still be lessons to be learned by a team of seven who have never raced the course before.
And, it is without question that each of Fort Collins's top five must run well on Saturday for the team to place well. The gap between #5 and #6 is substantial for Fort Collins and everyone at NXN is good at least five deep. Four solid and one so-so simply won't get it done.
On the girls' side, Colorado brings three individual entries. Those entries are Kailie Hartman, Hannah Everson, and Kristen Kientz. As the number 3, 4, and 5 qualifiers from the region, expectations probably aren't for top-20 kind of finishes. But, none of these three advanced to Portland by being marginal runners. Real possibilities exist, but there are cautions to be observed....
The pace at the front is breathtaking. Success is about knowing when to open up and then sustaining the will to see it through to the finish--in spite of the mounting pain. Make your break too late and you'll find yourself running 175th in a 199-person field. Make it too soon and the field will go past you in rapid motion over the final half mile. The margin of error is miniscule.
That said, I'm thinking at least one of these three takes her race to a new level this weekend.
Perhaps most interesting, however, is how the Colorado girls' team entries will shake out.
A single point differentiated Monarch (Louisville) and Fort Collins at NXN-SW. That Monarch kept it within a single point in a high-stakes kind of race against a team with vastly superior experience at that level of racing speaks volumes about how good Monarch really is.
Can Monarch overcome their void of experience at NXN? Can Fort Collins summon the courage and composure necessary to revisit the kind of success they attained last year?
In what was admittedly a singlularly inspired performance, Fort Collins finished third at NXN last year--the best finish by a Colorado team since Smoky Hill finished second in 2004. Nobody outside of Larimer County--and very few people within the county--gave Fort Collins the slightest chance to finish that high last year.
And, in my estimation, Fort Collins is better this year. Definitely not as experienced on a national stage, but a faster team nonetheless with the potential to exceed what last year's team accomplished.
Will they exceed last year's accomplishment? That depends on way too many things that someone on the outside looking in simply can't answer. Watch the race in person or tune in to the webcast and find out!
How high can Monarch finish? With a great day of racing, top five is not out of the question. And, if Monarch does pull that off, the selection committee is going to look pretty foolish for not extending an at-large bid to the Southwest region.
The top girls' competition flies in from California and New York. All eyes are on Fayetteville-Manlius, and they simply may not be catchable. Not far behind are Saugus (CA) and Saratoga (NY). Saratoga's finely-tuned engine has been missing on a couple cylinders of late and may--or may not--be vulnerable. Consider it a huge accomplishment if Fort Collins or Monarch knocks off any of the big three. Beyond these, however, Fort Collins and Monarch are two teams that should be believing they can compete with any team on the course.
As much as I relish the thought of competing against Fort Collins and Monarch, I become a huge Fort Collins and Monarch fan this weekend. On one level, I want to ask, "how much more validation does Colorado girls cross country need?" But, on another level, I understand how it will be altogether too easy for high school cross country's talking heads to ignore everything between New York and California if Colorado's teams fail to revisit last year's level of success.
And, I'd like to see the Southwest region in a stronger position to compete for an at-large bid next year.
Perhaps most of all, however, I salute Kent Rieder and Chris Suppes for all they've accomplished this year. I count them as friends and wish both their teams only the best on Saturday morning. If you get the opportunity, wish them well.