Teams
On paper, the boy's team race looks like two things: a hotly contested battle, and a two-team race.
There are the defending state champions - Frontier Academy - and then there's The Classical Academy.
Before we dive head-first into this, consider that there's a possibility that TCA could sweep 3A entirely...
Now, back the boy's team race.
These two teams match up pretty close across all five runners. Perhaps knowing that they would go head-to-head at State, they even met up twice during the season to battle.
TCA took the first meeting 50-53 at the Cheyenne Mountain Stampede, while Frontier Academy took revenge a few weeks later at the Wolverine Quad, tallying 31 points to TCA's 43.
So, Frontier Academy and TCA head to State 1-1.
Let's take a closer look at these squads...
On paper TCA has the edge.
Chandler Wilburn and Matthew Edwards have run 16:30, and 16:41 so far this season. Nathaniel Brim has cracked 17, and they've got five who have run 17:07 or faster. Their 1-5 split is an impressive 36-seconds - and that may be the deciding factor come Saturday.
Frontier Academy looks nearly as strong, but also perhaps a half-stride back - on paper.
Abuzaid Fanning and Sebastian Groom have run 16:36 and 16:45. When Fanning and Wilburn battled at the Wolverine Quad Wilburn beat Fanning to the line.
Frontier catches up briefly through their No. 3 - Sylas Chambers, who has run 16:53. They've got five under 17:26.
This one looks like be decided by the 4-5 runners, and it'll perhaps be a single-digit separation.
While it looks like a two-team race for the title, and the question should be who gets third, this exact scenario where two teams were eyeing each other opens the door for a potential dark horse to storm the gates and steal the show - sort of like last year's 5A girl's team race where Arapahoe stunned everyone.
So, who could be this Dark Horse?
Holy Family.
They've got a solid 1-2 with Jack Culp and Anthony Haberkorn, who have run under 16:50. Their third runner - Micah Munoz - is knocking on a sub-17 performance, and they've got five under 17:54.
On any given day a race can go one way or another. It all depends on who shows up Saturday.
Individuals
Alex Baca has been unbeaten against 3A competition all season.
Add that he owns a 15:58 Colorado personal best - that's the No. 1 time in the state. And - he ran 15:25 at Desert Twilight several weeks ago.
His only losses came at the hands of the some of the best in 2A - Micah Zeller, and Connor Williams. Though he did counter on his friendly-Gunnison-Valley rival - Williams - and beat him at Desert Twilight.
As a freshman Baca was 45th at State. As a sophomore he was 14th. Last year he was sixth. Could this finally be his year?
His most notable and recent victory came last week at the 3A Region 1 championships, where he beat perhaps his biggest competition - Alamosa's Joshua Medina.
Medina is the top-returner from last year's state cross country championships. He finished third at State a year ago.
He's won three of six races, including the 3A race at the Cheyenne Mountain Stampede. Medina ran a season-best of 16:14 at the 3A Region 1 championships, where he finished 16 seconds behind Baca.
In Baca and Medina's two meetings this fall, Baca has come out 2-0.
While Baca and Medina look like favorites heading to Colorado Springs, keep an eye on the flying freshman - Caden Schweer. The Severance freshman could play the spoiler this Saturday.
Schweer has won four of seven races, and owns a PR of 16:03 from the Longs Peak League Meet - that's the second-fastest time in the state. He recently won the 3A Region 2 title in 16:16 over Logan Gullett - the fourth-fastest runner in the state. Perhaps his more revealing performance was in the 4A race at the Cheyenne Mountain Stampede, where he finished seventh.
And the boy's race doesn't end there.
There's Gullett, there's Jacob Crookston, there's Chandler Wilburn.
As mentioned previously, anything can happen on any given day - it all depends on who decides to show up.