Dylan Donohoe has consistently ranked among the top runners in 3A throughout the season and will be looking to lead his team back to state next week. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Note: This series will have four installments: small-school boys, large-school girls, large-school boys, and small-school girls. I cannot possibly cover every possible scenario and every team in detail. It is, rather, my intent to simply to provide a quick user's guide to the regional meets looming on the horizon over the next eight or nine days.
2A Region 1
This one is arguably the toughest 2A boys region. Making matters worse is the fact that it looks like the region will send only two teams to state. But, there is a footnote to that; the third-place team could easily place three or more individuals in the top 15 and get to state by that route as well. Watch and see if that isn't exactly the scenario that plays out in this case.
Alexander Dawson and Nederland appear to be the favorites to advance as teams by the conventional method. But Wiggins has a fairly strong team entry as well. If they don't knock off Dawson or Nederland, they'll definitely be aiming to pack as many in the top 15 as they can.
2A Region 2
If Region 1 isn't the toughest in the state, this region is. This one, at least, has a decent shot at sending three teams to state. A lot depends on whether schools like Evangelical Christian Academy bring three finishers across the line at the regional race.
It's hard to imagine a reasonable scenario by which Rocky Ford doesn't advance to state out of this reason. Fountain Valley is the next likely qualifier but can't afford to take things easy lest Vanguard should slip by them. Assuming that Plainview gets assigned to this region (and this region would be the logical place for them), they have every reason to think they are in contention for a team berth as well.
The way the depth is distributed in this region means that qualifying a team by way of packing three or more individuals into the top 15 will be very difficult. Rocky Ford will certainly take their share of the top 15 slots. After two more teams qualify, the places would have to fall in just the right way for a "team" of three to get in as individual qualifiers.
2A Region 3
Keeping in mind that 2A scores with only three runners, Custer County looks like the favorite to win this one. Center boasts the region's top runner in Joel Villagomez but may not be able to match Custer County at the two and three positions. Certainly, this will be an interesting one to watch play out.
The region should advance three teams to state, which means Del Norte, Sargent, and Centennial (San Luis) are the three leading contenders for that third qualifying slot. Season results to date suggest Sargent has an edge but no margin of comfort. But, it is not at all unthinkable that two of these teams overhaul Center if Center doesn't have a strong outing.
None of the region's teams are especially deep, meaning we could see a fourth "team" qualifier from top 15 individuals if places fall favorably for one school. Keeping contact with the top 15 will be critical for runners from bubble schools.
2A Region 4
If Telluride had a third, they might be prohibitive favorites to win this region. Perhaps their soccer season ends abruptly and they inherit a third runner? If not, figure Ty Williams and Colten Rogers to advance to state as individuals.
Handicapping the team battle here is extremely difficult as the courses these teams tend to run on vary widely in both altitude and difficulty. Ouray, Mancos, Meeker, and Crested Butte each have reason to think they could advance to state. Each has reasons to respect the strength of the other teams in the region. My sense is that Ouray has the strongest 1-2-3, but none of the teams has a lineup that can toe the start line and dominate the region. Two teams will want it worse than the others. Those two teams will go to state by the conventional route.
It's not unthinkable that two teams from this region could advance by putting three runners in the top 15. The depth appears to be spread just about that evenly. I'm thinking the odds are at least 50-50 that one team will advance to state in this fashion with a smaller chance of two "teams" doing it.
3A Region 1
Gunnison and Bayfield have been quietly enjoying solid seasons over on the western slope. And, it's easier to fly under the radar there than here on the Front Range. Both teams are heavy favorites to advance teams to state out of the region.
After these two, however, things get very interesting. In a region that should advance five teams to state, Aspen, Basalt, Pagosa Springs, and Hotchkiss look like the next most likely candidates, but it would be premature to dismiss teams like Buena Vista and Grand Valley from consideration. There figure to be a few pressure-packed moments for coaches, fans, and athletes alike as the places are tallied.
Should his team not advance, Grand Valley's Sam Whelan is a top candidate for an individual qualifier slot.
3A Region 2
There was a day not long ago when this region sent more teams to state than any other 3A region. That day is gone. This year, it appears Region 2 will get four slots, with a small possibility of five.
Salida, The Classical Academy, and Lamar are each in strong positions to claim state-qualifying berths. Salida probably ranks as the most improved boys program in the 3A ranks this year.
Behind these three, however, should be an interesting race between Discovery Canyon, CSCS, La Junta, and St. Mary's. There will be a huge premium on having the top #4 runner among this group of teams.
Individual qualifying spots will be extremely difficult to come by in this region. Figure it will take at least a 17:50, and very possibly faster, to make it into the top 15.
3A Region 3
What will prevail? Will it be the front-end strength of Faith Christian or Colorado Academy? Will it be the overall balance of Holy Family? Will it be the quiet persistence of Legend?
This one should be a very interesting regional race. The region figures to advance five teams to state with a possibility of a sixth, so each of the above teams figures to make it with a reasonably good performance on race day. Clear Creek and Kent Denver are the leading candidates to occupy the remaining slots.
Although his season has been quieter of late than what it started as, Denver Christian's Ryan Poland is a huge favorite to advance to state as an individual qualifier out of this region.
3A Region 4
This one figures to be hotly contested through each and every state-qualifying slot. Nobody comes into this regional race with a large margin of error. Even Lyons, last year's state runner-up, is fighting for their lives in this one.
University has probably had the best season to date and would appear to be the favorite, though not by any prohibitive margin. Eaton started strong and needs to rekindle the flames a bit. Platte Valley has been very quietly emerging into a strong team. Lyons and Brush, both boasting very strong front-running talent, have been quietly improving at the #3 and #4 positions, making them teams to be wary of. Peak to Peak, Erie, Brighton Collegiate, and Jefferson Academy all come to the region meet looking to extend their season's by a week.
The moral to this story? Show up and race next Thursday. Nobody gets a free ride.
It is beyond the pale of reason to think that any of the four 3A regions will advance a "team" to state through four individual qualifiers.