Gianni Palumbo's season is one of the reasons that expectations are rising at Pueblo Centennial. Photo by Alan Versaw.
It's the time of year when everyone is wondering how many teams will make it out of their region to the state meet. This article, and those that accompany it for other classifications, will attempt to provide a preliminary answer that question.
One one level, the answer is easy: simply multiply the number of complete teams that finish your regional race by 0.4. Then round that number up if the decimal portion is .5 or higher and round down if the decimal portion is less than .5. See? Simple!
Or maybe not so simple. How in the world do you forecast how many complete teams will finish your regional race? Prior to the last runner crossing the finish line, you can't say with certainty how many complete teams will finish in your region.
BUT, you can look at the number of schools in each region and get an educated guess at how many teams will qualify for state. And that's what the rest of this article is about.
4A Region 1
This region takes in a lot of Jefferson County and a few schools from surrounding areas. There's a bunch of cross country tradition in this region, but this isn't an especially strong year for many of the schools:
Girls (11) - Evergreen, Mullen, Centaurus, Green Mountain, D'Evelyn, Golden, Conifer, Wheat Ridge, Denver North, Valor Christian, Englewood
Boys (12) - Evergreen, Centaurus, D'Evelyn, Conifer, Valor Christian, Wheat Ridge, Denver North, Mullen, Green Mountain, Golden, Englewood, Fort Lupton
The girls should safely forward four teams to the state meet. The boys, on the other hand, are sitting at five teams to the state meet but without a margin of error. One team doesn't complete the regional race and the boys are down to four qualifiers.
4A Region 2
This is the monster region in 4A. In addition to being loaded with top teams, however, it is also loaded with teams, period. That means this region will be well-represented at state:
Girls (14) - Greeley Central, Thompson Valley, Niwot, Erie, Mountain View, Windsor, Broomfield, Roosevelt, Longmont, Sterling, Skyline, Silver Creek, Northridge, Frederick
Boys (15) - Thompson Valley, Broomfield, Niwot, Skyline, Windsor, Fort Morgan, Mountain View, Roosevelt, Greeley Central, Silver Creek, Erie, Longmont, Sterling, Frederick, Northridge
As things stand at the moment, both boys and girls get to send six teams to state. The girls are on a serious bubble, however. If the number of complete teams drops to 13, only five teams will be going to state. And that could make for an interesting little battle.
4A Region 3
This is another tradition-rich region that is a little on the down side of things. It comprises about half of the Colorado Springs 4A contingent, plus a few schools from the Denver Metro area:
Girls (11) - Discovery Canyon, Palmer Ridge, Air Academy, Lewis-Palmer, Woodland Park, Kennedy, Falcon, Arvada, Elizabeth, Wasson, Denver South
Boys (14) - Lewis-Palmer, Falcon, Palmer Ridge, Discovery Canyon, Ridgeview, Air Academy, Kennedy, Arvada, Woodland Park, Thomas Jefferson, Elizabeth, Mitchell, Wasson, Denver South
The girls can drop up to two teams and still send four to state. That seems a pretty reasonable expectation here. The boys are sitting at six teams right now but must stay at 14 complete teams or drop to qualifying only five teams for state.
4A Region 4
At least from the boys' side of the picture, this is a loaded region this year. It's going to be tough to advance to state out of this region. And, for the girls as well, this seems to be a bit of a high water year for the region relative to the last few years. The region picks up whatever Colorado Springs schools didn't get assigned to Region 3 and adds the South Central League schools.
Girls (13) - Cheyenne Mountain, Pueblo Centennial, Vista Ridge, Coronado, Pueblo South, Pueblo West, Widefield, Canon City, Pueblo East, Mesa Ridge, Pueblo County, Sierra, Harrison
Boys (13) - Pueblo South, Cheyenne Mountain, Coronado, Pueblo West, Widefield, Mesa Ridge, Pueblo Centennial, Sierra, Pueblo East, Pueblo Central, Vista Ridge, Canon City, Harrison
This one seems a very safe bet to send both five boys and five girls teams to state. Most programs in the region are in pretty good shape this year and staying at 12 complete teams or higher will keep the region at five teams to state.
4A Region 5
The western slope schools seem to be enjoying a strong year for most programs. Everyone has teams, and everyone is still competing.
Girls (11) - Moffat County, Durango, Montrose, Glenwood Springs, Eagle Valley, Summit, Battle Mountain, Palisade, Delta, Steamboat Springs, Montezuma-Cortez
Boys (11) - Moffat County, Delta, Battle Mountain, Durango, Glenwood Springs, Montrose, Steamboat Springs, Eagle Valley, Palisade, Montezuma-Cortez, Summit
Adding up the qualifying teams gives us an expection of 23 girls teams at state and as many as 25 boys teams at state, plus individual qualifiers. The team counts are high-end estimates, but shouldn't drop by more than one or two schools, at most. That puts the expected field size in the range of 170 - 180 runners each. A field that large will definitely penalize teams with weaknesses at the #4 and #5 positions.
If you'd like to check out on your own how the teams in your region stack up, click on Rankings/High School Boys (or Girls) Teams. Then go to Advanced Parameters and select your region to filter the rankings. Disclaimer: The MileSplit rankings are based on scoring five and based on performances at any point in the season. Thus, people who had an early-season mark may not necessarily still be running with a thier team. In most cases, they will still be with the team but injuries and dropouts are a part of sport.