10 Questions about State Answered

Miguel Baltazar exemplified an Alamosa effort that kept both feet beneath them until the job was done. Photo by Jeff McCoy.

Before the state meet, I posed 10 questions for the state meet to answer. It's time to go back and look at how the answers to those questions played out. I've copied the 10 questions below and offered what seems to be the answer to each in the space below the question.

1. Durango or Palmer Ridge? Palmer Ridge, even with an effort that the team didn't find fully satisfying, simply ran away with this thing last fall. The Bears have enjoyed a solid season this fall, and remain unbeaten in the 4A ranks. But, the Bears haven't yet squared off against Durango. And, Durango has been on fire all season long. There's a sense of urgency for Durango that probably isn't in place for Palmer Ridge--the Durango team is very senior-heavy. It's do it Saturday or never do it at all for the Demons. Palmer Ridge, on the other hand, barely has a senior on their scoring roster. But, anyone who thinks Palmer Ridge will go quietly into the night is fooling themselves.

This one could scarcely have gone closer to the wire than it did. The senior-laden team of Durango took a two-point win (though Durango would have won the tie-breaker as well) over Palmer Ridge. Two exceptional teams and one exceptional race. There were so many ways this one could have ended differently with just the slightest adjustments in finishes.

2. Who do like in 5A Girls, Part 1? Before the season started, a whole lot of folks (and I count myself among them) had the 5A Girls individual title signed, sealed, and delivered to Lauren Gregory. It was inconceivable that anyone would threaten Gregory, provided only that Gregory remained healthy. Well, so much for the inconceivable. Gregory still might win this thing, but Allie Chipman and Brie Oakley have risen up to make this a whole lot more interesting than anyone expected. Remember that 17:55 at St. Vrain? Remember that debut piece of domination at Arvada West? It all comes to center stage on Saturday.

Lauren Gregory proved to be sufficient to the challenge. Allie Chipman started the day warming up on a bicycle and made a good race of it, but appeared to be just a bit off of her September form. Gregory and Oakley battled to the bitter end with Gregory momentarily looking as if she had put Oakley away, but Oakley came back and made a contest of it inside the stadium.

3. Who do you like in 5A Girls, Part 2? Greg Weich has coached against Cherry Creek before. Or, perhaps we should say, "Cherry Creek has had to deal with Greg Weich-coached teams before." In the past, it's been Cherry Creek coming out on the short end of the deal. Today, four days before the state meet, you can make a great case for Cherry Creek. You can also make a great case for Broomfield. And, just to stir the pot a little, you can also make a great case for Mountain Vista. Only one can tote the big trophy out of the Norris Penrose Stadium.

It would seem that the lesson here is, never get involved in a land war with a Greg Weich-coached team. Mountain Vista and Fairview both kept it close (as well as Cherry Creek, of course), but nobody had the horses to overhaul Broomfield.

4. How many of the conspicuously missing names from regionals will be on the starting line for state? I'm guessing most will, but it's a long list of names, to include Allie Chipman (I have word she will be running at state), Ben Dingman, Holly Bent, Jeremy Meadows, Amy Leasure, Joseph Krafsur, Wyatt Lehr, Phoebe Powell, Miles Hatton, Lisa Swartz, and many more. Each of these are ones who could make a substantial difference for their teams. There are others whose regional performances hint that they were trying to run through injuries at regionals. But, cross country never has been an injury-free sport, and sometimes disappointment stings deep. We all want to see everyone who has earned the spot on the starting line, but there will be absences. And, some results will turn on those absences.

You can go down the list as well as I can, but already know several on this list didn't run at state. Of those who did, nobody made a bigger difference for his or her team than Phoebe Powell. Simply stated, Powell was critical to Salida's outcome.

5. Alamosa, Lamar, or Frontier Academy? Early in the season, Lamar had the upper hand here. But, at last week's regional race, Alamosa dominated. Can Lamar rise up for one more huge effort of the order they were posting almost weekly early in the season? Can a quiet Frontier Academy team slip in and surprise them both?

Alamosa slammed the door shut on this question. Lamar was running on fumes, and we haven't seen this kind of domination in 3A in quite some time.

6. Paul Roberts? It seems almost a foregone conclusion, but it's when you start thinking in terms of foregone conclusions that you get yourself in trouble. If Paul Roberts wins the 2A race on Saturday, he will become Colorado's first four-time male state champion. Adam Goucher didn't do it. Andy Montanez didn't do it. Ray Harvey didn't do it....

Paul Roberts did do it. And it looked like a foregone conclusion for at least the last 4980 meters of race as well.

7. Does the Air Academy bus have brakes? We'll be watching closely to see if this team can post the all-classification set of best times on Saturday. They won't be in the same race as Broomfield, Cherry Creek, and Mountain Vista, but you can bet they will be racing them.

No brakes. None needed. A merged score has Air Academy at the top of the entire pile. On to NXR-SW with the school's first-ever state title in hand.

8. How real is the Vista Nation phenomenon? Saturday's state meet is only the first of what could be three stages of an answer to this question. The coaches poll had the Golden Eagles as a unanimous #1, and their regional perfect score would lend its full support to that assessment. What will we see, and what will the nation start to see, on Saturday?

As dominating as Alamosa was in 3A, so also was Mountain Vista in all classifications. This team has no peers in Colorado at this time. Stage 1 passed with flying colors.

9. Can a 1A school really run the table in 2A Girls? The current CHSAA directory lists the enrollment of Heritage Christian Academy as 70 students. Obviously, among those 70 are a few gifted runners, but they didn't all enter high school looking that way. This school is a great example of what can happen when a coach dedicates himself to a cause and a couple of girls (that would be Rachel and Rebekah Rairdon) start a fire. And, yes, it helps that they're twins--two in the same grade can stoke a far bigger fire than one. Right now, HCA is the perfect storm of events that lead to small-school success.

Maybe a 1A school can do it, but the 2015 HCA Eagles were not the team to do it, and it looks like they have some serious rebuilding in store for next year. So, it may not happen any time soon. In what was probably the biggest team title upset of the state meet, Telluride sent Heritage Christian home by more than the three-point margin of victory would suggest.

10. Peak to Peak or Salida? It seems singularly fitting that the final coaches poll has these two teams locked in a dead heat for first in 3A girls. On the one hand, you have the depth, passion, experience, and single-minded mission to rewrite last year's story of the Salida team. On the other hand, you have the best freshman class 3A has ever seen at Peak to Peak. And, clearly, Peak to Peak is on a mission of their own here. It's entirely possible Salida parks their entire scoring five between Peak to Peak's 2 and 3. Salida needs to keep their entire scoring five ahead of Peak to Peak's 4. This one will be so worth watching. It is a crying shame one of these teams has to lose.

Passion trumps freshman class this time around. If you look up and down the scoring orders here, Salida had a more complete team effort than Peak to Peak. Peak to Peak was very good; Salida was better. That's what passion will do for you. And, it could be that passion moves its residence to the Peak to Peak camp next year.

And, by the way, I was wrong about Salida needing to keep their entire scoring five ahead of Peak to Peak's 4. It turns out they didn't, yet still won. Salida's first four, however, did an exemplary job of getting in before Peak to Peak's 3.