Gus Waneka is back next year as a senior after leading Thompson Valley to its most successful boys season ever. Photo by Alan Versaw.
Between October of 2010 and August of 2011, 4A will have waved a fond farewell to a number of highly-talented seniors. And the departure of those seniors could have a great deal to do with how the team race develops next fall. Gone will be such notable individuals as Spencer Wenck, Mike Cernoia, and Chris Zirkle, but these graduations have relatively minor impacts on the team standings for next year.
Here's what we see happening with the teams for next year:
Cheyenne Mountain - Gone are all of the Indians' top five from the state team. Cheyenne Mountain is quietly building a deep program and can be expected to be heard from again next fall, but there's no way you come out of losing your top five completely unscathed. Phillip Meyer, Joshua Fowler, and Tristan Pelto seem poised and ready to take over leadership next fall. Who are those guys, you ask? Well, wait until next fall and see. In the meanwhile, figure that Cheyenne Mountain is no worse than a top-10 team next fall, and probably better than that.
Thompson Valley - The Eagles fare a lot better on the graduation-o-meter than Cheyenne Mountain. Most importantly, Gus Waneka and Daniel Lara are back, as is #4 Kevin Baldwin. To move from second to first at state, however, will probably require that the Eagles close up the gap between their second and third scoring positions--plus bringing #4 and #5 up to near where #2 is as well.
Coronado - In their first year in 4A, the Cougars flirted with domination but having Cheyenne Mountain just a few miles down the road and present at almost every meet they were running kept Coronado from ever really breathing the clear air of domination. Coronado is a relatively deep program, and has been for years. The Cougars lose Jesse Mathews to graduation, but Dan Egger seems to have the figurative width of shoulders to carry the leadership for this team. Like Thompson Valley, Coronado needs to close up the ranks behind their top two to make a serious run at next year's title.
Broomfield - Though much improved over 2009, the Broomfield boys never quite got healthy enough to tap into their full potential in 2010. There will be holes from graduation to fill in 2011, but overall Broomfield seems to have the 2-3 gap issue in much better shape coming into the next season than either Thompson Valley or Coronado. Ben Forsee should carry to burden of team leadership well. The Eagles, in their second year under Greg Weich, should be ready to challenge for the state title next fall. Challenging for it and getting it are two very different things, but nobody gives out trophies 11 months in advance of the state meet, anyway. Keep an eye on Broomfield. The track season should give a good indication of how the progression is moving along.
Niwot - Niwot always seems to be hanging around the top of 4A boys, but also always seems to come up just short at the big event. It has to be getting more than just a little frustrating. The Cougars desperately need their collection of seniors-to-be to close up ranks with Nick Harris in order to make a serious run at the title. Depth is a bit of an issue that, once addressed, could mean important things for this team.
Pueblo South - After a very strong start to their season, the Colts seemed to be running on fumes when the state meet came around. And the news gets worse: Brandon Lange graduates in the spring. There were 51 points between Lange and South's #2 at the state meet. But, South's 2 through 5 runners are back. Stepping up a notch, the team in black could be right back in the thick of things next fall. Good, consistent summer mileage would take this team a long way in the fall.
Pueblo West - I have some experience with replacing two top ten finishers at state in a single season. And that experience tells me it isn't easy. People grow accustomed to watching the stars do their thing and the transition from watching to doing doesn't happen automatically. These kind of holes are difficult to fill. Pueblo West has some nice cross country tradition built up over the last few years, but tradition doesn't wear a uniform on race day. The Cyclones will need some of the younger runners to step up or it will be a season of serious rebuilding next fall.
Moffat County - Chris Zirkle will lead the pack no longer. His days of wearing Bulldog blue are done. But, Alfredo Lebron would have been the leader on almost any other team in the state, and he's back. Moffat County is one of the state's smallest 4A schools and, as a result, kids end up in multiple sports more often than happens at most other 4A schools. That little fact of small town life bit the Bulldogs a little this fall. If they can dodge the consequences of that bullet in the fall of 2011, this is a team that just might move up in the standings. There is no doubt that the team is well coached and does well with the hand they're dealt (small school, geographically isolated).
Other Teams with Stories to Tell:
Evergreen - In what must rank as the ultimate good news/bad news story of 4A cross country, Jak Hamilton won't have to suffer through another disastrous state meet experience. The bad news, however, is that he will be graduating in the spring and Evergreen cross country will have to move along without his considerable talent. Still, it's a talented team, but one that seems to be absolutely snakebit at state. If they find the antivenom before next October, this could be a team to be reckoned with.
Glenwood Springs - Andrew Mansfield and Vinny Marr will be one of the best returning 1-2 combinations in the 4A classification next fall. The question is, will the pieces be in place at 3, 4, and 5?
Centaurus - Getting closer. Getting closer... After years of cross country obscurity, there's reason to think Centaurus is drawing close to being a legitimate 4A contender. If this year's success, both for Chandler Reid individually and for the team as a whole, plays out in terms of enhanced recruiting within the school's hallway's, next year might be the breakthrough year for Centaurus. It's been a long, long, long time since there has been anyone out of Lafayette challenging for an individual state title, but Reid offers at least the hope that the situation could take a turn in one of the next two years.
Gus Waneka is back next year as a senior after leading Thompson Valley to its most successful boys season ever. Photo by Alan Versaw.